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147The following appeared in an editorial in a business magazine.
"Although the sales of Whirlwind video games have declined over the past two years, a recent survey of video-game players suggests that this sales trend is about to be reversed. The survey asked video-game players what features they thought were most important in a video game. According to the survey, players prefer games that provide lifelike graphics, which require the most up-to-date computers. Whirlwind has just introduced several such games with an extensive advertising campaign directed at people 10 to 25 years old, the age-group most likely to play video games. It follows, then, that the sales of Whirlwind video games are likely to increase dramatically in the next few months."
1 也许其他对手在video games上做的更好,而arguer没有提供此方面的信息
2 也许video games市场会萎缩,即便Whirlwind份额上升,其sales未必增加
3 survey 有问题
4 对computer的要求也许会减少对video games的需求
This argument is well presented, but not thoroughly well reasoned. According to a survey, which indicated that video-game players prefer games providing lifelike graphics, and the evidence that Whirlwind video games has just introduced several such games with an extensive advertising campaign directed at people 10 to 25 years old, the arguer draws the conclusion that the sales of Whirlwind video games are likely to increase dramatically in the next few months. There are several flaws that I will discuss below.
First of all, there is no evidence indicating rivals of Whirlwind video games, if there are rivals and it is often the case, fall behind in this competition of video games at all, though Whirlwind has tried its best and did very good work. Rivals of Whirlwind may also aware that market of video games that provide lifelike graphics has a brilliant future. Hence they were very possible to give great emphasis on it. More such games with better performance comparing with Whirlwind's may be introduced.
Additionally, even if the Whirlwind's occupancy in video games market increased, the sales may not be increased for the reason that occupancy of video games decreased among all electronic games. The arguer fails to provide sufficient evidence to prove that the gross of video games will not decline so the conclusion that sales of Whirlwind video games are likely to increase is hardly achieved.
The survey is also questionable. Were the survey respondents broad enough? Was the survey limited to a certain city or geographic region? Were the questions of the survey leading? All the factors may explain the survey results and undermine the generality of the survey.
In addition, the age group of 10 to 25 years old, at which the extensive advertising campaign carried out by Whirlwind directed, may not make up the most part of survey respondents who prefer video games that provide lifelike graphics. Therefore, the advertising campaign may have poor effect.
Also, the up-to-date requirement of computer may weaken the demand of such video games because the players have to update their computer hardware and increase the costs.
Overall, the argument, which seems logical at first, has several flaws as discussed above. The conclusion could be improved by providing sufficient evidence to prove rivals of Whirlwind fall behind in the competition and the gross of video games market will not decline. Also, it could be strengthened by a reliable survey. |
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