Argument147,首次习作，不顺，望往死里砍

yooodaUID：2234102

147The following appeared in an editorial in a business magazine.
"Although the sales of Whirlwind video games have declined over the past two years, a recent survey of video-game players suggests that this sales trend is about to be reversed. The survey asked video-game players what features they thought were most important in a video game. According to the survey, players prefer games that
provide lifelike graphics, which require the most up-to-date computers. Whirlwind has just introduced several such games with an extensive advertising campaign directed at people 10 to 25 years old, the age-group most likely to play video games. It follows, then, that the sales of Whirlwind video games are likely to increase dramatically in the next few months."


1 the survey is not reliable
2 does the advertising make sense
3 will 10-25 love the game and buy it crazily


The editorial makes the conclusion that the sales of Whirlwind video games are likely to increase dramatically in the next few months based on one fact and one survey. Whirlwind video games' campaign catering to the people 10-25 years old seems to have a great effect on the sales, but I find the reasoning unsound and it contains many flaws.


First of all, the survey can hardly persuade us because it comes out with the results without introducing the details of the survey. Usually, who takes the survey or how do they carry out the survey is a very important element of the quality of the survey. Moreover, whether the method surveyors use is scientific or whether the process is accurate enough will make difference between right or wrong. But it mentions none of them. Even worse, the survey does not illustrate the age period of the testers and the Whirlwind Company mainly focuses on people 10 to 25 years old. If the testers' age doesn't contain the age period between 10 and 25 years old, it will be no sense at all. For these reasons, I think the survey cannot be the evidence to the arguer's conclusion.


Secondly, the editorial presents that the Whirlwind Company is introducing games with advertising campaign, so it will surely increase its sales in the short-term. I feel it is fairly farfetched because the behavior of the customers is not merely influenced by the company's advertising. The customers also pay attention to the price, fame and quality of the product. It is the market which plays a significant rule on the sales. Moreover, other companies can also raise an effective advertising campaign towards the market. So, the advertising campaign will raise the sales is unsubstantial and it could not be one evidence to the conclusion.


I have just denied the 2 evidence of the editorial because there exist obvious flaws. Even if the 2 evidence are substantial, it is not likely that those players between 10 and 25 years old will buy the video game immediately and crazily. The editorial tells us that the new type of video game requires the most up-to-date computers. Those high-quality computers must be expensive to those people between 10 and 25 years old. On one hand, they generally haven’t a salary high enough to sustain the luxurious computer. On the other hand, their parents usually don't want their children to spend much time on video games hence get those money from parents is impossible. For the editorial doesn’t take these facts into consideration, the conclusion is hard to be believed.


To sum up, the editorial misses several vital points when it comes out with the conclusion. The arguer is excessively optimistic about the situation that Whirlwind facing. I advise the Whirlwind Company to compare its strategy with that of the other companies thoroughly and examine the reason for their sales declining deeply instead of just doing some pretty-looking things. Only then could it gradually raise its sales in the long-run.

nostrumUID：2124189

The editorial makes the conclusion that the sales of Whirlwind video games are likely to increase dramatically in the next few months based on one fact and one survey. Whirlwind video games' campaign catering to the people 10-25 years old seems to have a great effect on the sales, but I find the reasoning unsound and it contains many flaws.
开头还不错，比较简单明了

First of all, the survey can hardly persuade us because it comes out with the results without introducing the details of the survey. Usually, who takes the survey or how do they carry out the survey is a very important element of the quality of the survey. Moreover, whether the method surveyors use is scientific or whether the process is accurate enough will make difference between right or wrong. But it mentions none of them. Even worse, the survey does not illustrate the age period of the testers and the Whirlwind Company mainly focuses on people 10 to 25 years old. If the testers' age doesn't contain the age period between 10 and 25 years old, it will be no sense at all. For these reasons, I think the survey cannot be the evidence to the arguer's conclusion.
很多语句需要提升，给你几个我以前的样本，但是，模版我一向是鄙视的，主要给你个提示作用
Before I come to my conclusion, it is necessary to point out another fault is the result of the survey lacks credibility because+who+什么样的who+are actually exclude from the survey and therefore can not lend strong support to the arguer’s. The result of the survey were based only on data from the +调查对象, however, it is entirely possible that they are not representative of all the+人物. The arguer overlooks the possibility the most of other+人物+与调查结果不一样的情况, but 由于什么原因没被采访到 (选择性样本)

Another flaw that weakens the logic of the argument is whether the respondents are representative. The argument provides no evidence that the survey’s respondents are representative of the overall group of people who+具有何种特征. Lacking such evidence, it is entirely possible that people inclined to +倾向的一方 were more willing to respond to the survey than other people. Without better evidence that the survey is statistically reliable, the argument can not rely on it to draw any firm conclusions. （样本代表性回应者）


Secondly, the editorial presents that the Whirlwind Company is introducing games with advertising campaign, so it will surely increase its sales in the short-term. I feel it is fairly farfetched because the behavior of the customers is not merely influenced by the company's advertising. The customers also pay attention to the price, fame and quality of the product. It is the market which plays a significant rule on the sales. Moreover, other companies can also raise an effective advertising campaign towards the market. So, the advertising campaign will raise the sales is unsubstantial and it could not be one evidence to the conclusion.
这点批驳还是挺好的

I have just denied the 2 evidence of the editorial because there exist obvious flaws. Even if the 2 evidence are substantial, it is not likely that those players between 10 and 25 years old will buy the video game immediately and crazily. The editorial tells us that the new type of video game requires the most up-to-date computers. Those high-quality computers must be expensive to those people between 10 and 25 years old. On one hand, they generally haven’t a salary high enough to sustain the luxurious computer. On the other hand, their parents usually don't want their children to spend much time on video games hence get those money from parents is impossible. For the editorial doesn’t take these facts into consideration, the conclusion is hard to be believed.


To sum up, the editorial misses several vital points when it comes out with the conclusion. The arguer is excessively optimistic about the situation that Whirlwind facing. I advise the Whirlwind Company to compare its strategy with that of the other companies thoroughly and examine the reason for their sales declining deeply instead of just doing some pretty-looking things. Only then could it gradually raise its sales in the long-run.

结构没有问题，但是语言需要提升
再给你几个样本：
Before I come to my conclusion, it is necessary to point out another flaw that it rests on a gratuitous assumption that+A意味着B，或者一定是A带来了B. However, the arguer fails to take into account other facts that might contribute to the result that+结果. It is likely+列举他因. It is also likely+列举他因. Moreover, it is also likely+列举他因. Any of scenarios, if true, would show that+ A不一定意味着B，或者不一定是A带来了B. （不一定是A导致B的发生，其他原因也能导致B的发生）

The main problem with this argument is the conclusion is based on a false analogy. The arguer simply assumes that A is analogous to B, but he does not provide any evidence that all things are indeed comparable and that the background conditions have remained the same at different times or at different locations. It is true that both A and B have some common grounds such as the neighboring geographical location, but even here there probably exist essential differences: 举几个区别 and so on. Therefore, there is no guarantee that the facts drawn from A are applicable to B. (错误类比)

Another flaw that weakens the logic of the argument is the arguer assumes that+作者假设. Nevertheless, this might not be the case. No evidence is provided to prove this fact. Perhaps+列举他因. Or perhaps+列举他因. Moreover, also perhaps+列举他因. Lacking such evidence the arguer can not draw any firm conclusion. (论据真实性)

Another flaw that weakens the logic of the argument is the cited successful example of the+人物 might be unreliable in all+人物 as well. +一两句论述. It is logically unsounded to make suggestion for all+人物 who are +人物特征 to do sth. Unless it can be shown that the 人物 in the study(or survey) are representative of all+人物, any conclusion we draw is completely unpersuasive. (差异范围, 小范围到大范围)
不是让你照搬这些东西，是提醒用的，希望不要害你背模版