Argument147 【0706G－CRUSADE小组】 第1次作业 by vanlucker

vanluckerUID：2267009

Argument147 【0706G－CRUSADE小组】 第1次作业 by vanlucker

题目
"Although the sales of Whirlwind video games have declined over the past two years, a recent survey of video-game players suggests that this sales trend is about to be reversed. The survey asked video-game players what features they thought were most important in a video game. According to the survey, players prefer games that provide lifelike graphics, which require the most up-to-date computers. Whirlwind has just introduced several such games with an extensive advertising campaign directed at people 10 to 25 years old, the age-group most likely to play video games. It follows, then, that the sales of Whirlwind video games are likely to increase dramatically in the next few months."



1.  报告大意与主要漏洞．
2.  调查的可信度：调查的范围(年龄,人数,收入等等)
3.  最新电脑可能导致玩家放弃购买,同时公司是否已经投入了大量资源去开发这类游戏,也可能导致收入不足投入.
4.  a.广告投入提高了成本也提高了价格,游戏的主力玩家买的起吗?b.是否有竞争者做更大规模宣传.c.其他年龄玩家对广告没兴趣甚至打消原来购买念头.
5.  可能短时间内无法迅速盈利,包括季节和流行的因素
6.  总结

　　In this editorial the author concluded that Whirlwind video games are likely not only to reverse its declination of past 2-year sales, as well as to increase dramatically its sales in the next few months. To support the conclusion the author cites a recent survey concerning the video-game players’ most favorite features - realistic graphics. And then he claims that Whirlwind’s sales will increase dramatically due to its recent products with realistic graphics and its extensive advertising campaign toward the 10-25 years old player group – the most enthusiastic video-game player group. Close inspection of the evidences reveal, however, that the editorial is flawed in several significant respects.　　
　　Turning first to the survey upon which the argument depends. This survey provides no assurances that the respondents’ preference being in line with that of the aimed player group is reliable. As I see it, the respondents are not the representatives of the aimed player group due to the low number, the different age-group, or the different income of the players. Moreover, perhaps such an uncertain survey upon which the author presently depends also be trusted by Whirlwind 2 year ago. Accordingly, without considering and ruling out these possibilities, the author cannot justifiably conclude that the survey serves the dramatic increase of sales.
　　Next, the author fails to consider another factor - the expense of the up-to-date computers players must to pay. This factor is the inevitable bound of the aimed player group. Most enthusiasts might not purchase games towards a high level of lifelike graphics without the same high level yet unaffordable computers. Moreover, the sales might be frustrated as the expense of producing such high level games leading to the high price, let alone to increase dramatically.
　　Similarly, the extensive advising campaign might not result in the effectiveness the author expects. To illustrate this view, I point out several flaws towards advertisement as follow. First, the extensive advising campaign is necessarily to increase the products costs, and then inevitably to raise the games’ price. It might be reflected on the declination of sales as the prohibitively expense of the games for the aimed player group. Secondly, are there some competing products that might serve to diminish sales of Whirlwind’s new games? If it is true, perhaps the competitors will reduce or discount their products’ price or even take a far more extensive advising campaign over Whirlwind’s one to compete in the marketplace. Thirdly, while other age-groups see the Whirlwind’s advisement specific to 10-25 years old age-group, the impression of Whirlwind’s products might be imprinted as unfit games to them, and then the aimed group of sales might be bounded so specifically that would perhaps lead to the decrease of Whirlwind’s sales. Finally, the advising strategies that serve to promote sales of new games also promoted by Whirlwind causing the decrease in past 2-year．
　　Even if the author can substantiate the foregoing assumptions, I remain suspect that the strategies can not result in increase of sales during such a short time. Perhaps the dominant types of computer games change seasonally. Or perhaps, to the extent that Whirlwind video games invested largely in producing such fashionable but expensive realistic graphics games, the investment might not be rapidly counteracted by sales in a short time. Yet, without any evidence that the dominant types of games might not alter quickly during sales of Whirlwind’s new games and sales can counteract the investment in the next few month, the author’s assumption might be partially effective in a normal even slow rate of increase of sales.
　　In sum, the assumption is not well supported. To strengthen it the author must provide clear evidence that the dominant feature of one game the most game players pay attention to is its realistic graphics, and 10-25 years old enthusiasts are likely to be interest in Whirlwind’s products over other competing games, and then they can afford to purchase them. Finally, to better evaluate the argument I would need more information about what cause the past 2-year inclination of sales and whether the current strategy has same similar causes that should be eliminated; and how much whirlwind costs in the game development and the advertising campaign.

这是小弟第一篇argument,写的时候不知道怎么下手到处借鉴，结果不知不觉胡乱中写了这么多，自己连重点都不知道在哪．．．．－＿－！
真心希望各位能耐心帮我指出毛病，特别是哪些重点哪些略写，还有结构上转承我都不太清楚，请各位教我，谢谢了～:handshake :)

[ 本帖最后由 vanlucker 于 2007-2-14 20:52 编辑 ]

rose_07UID：2276843

等等啊，看完ISSUE先

rose_07UID：2276843

　　In this editorial the author concluded that Whirlwind video games are likely not only to reverse its declination of past 2-year sales, as well as to increase dramatically its sales in the next few months. To support the conclusion the author cites a recent survey concerning the video-game players’ most favorite features - realistic graphics. And then he claims that Whirlwind’s sales will increase dramatically due to its recent products with realistic graphics and its extensive advertising campaign toward the 10-25 years old player group – the most enthusiastic video-game player group. Close inspection of the evidences reveal, however, that the editorial is flawed in several significant respects.　　
觉得开头有点长了，能够压缩一下，扼要地概述论者的论据和假设就更好了
　　Turning first to the survey upon which the argument depends. This survey provides no assurances that the respondents’ preference being in line with that of the aimed感觉aimed有被击中的意思 player group is reliable. As I see it, the respondents are not the representativesrepresentative作形容词比较多吧 of the aimed player group 可以考虑去掉 due to the low number, the different age-group, or the different income of the players我明白你的意思，但是感觉表达上不太清楚. Moreover, perhaps such an uncertain survey upon which the author presently depends可以考虑去掉 also be trusted by Whirlwind 2 year ago.不太明白这句话放在这里想表达哪种可能性 Accordingly, without considering and ruling out these possibilities, the author cannot justifiably conclude that the survey serves the dramatic increase of sales.
　　Next可能有资料是这么用，但是个人觉得有点过于口语化，不够正式, the author fails to consider another factor - the expense of the up-to-date computers whichplayers must to 去掉pay. This factor is the inevitable bound of the aimed player group. Most enthusiasts might not purchase games towards a high level of lifelike graphics without the same high level yet unaffordable computers. Moreover, the sales might be frustrated感觉这个词是用来形容人的吧 as the expense of producing such high level games leadingas后面是接短语还是句子，我也记不清了 to the high price, let alone to increase dramatically.
　　Similarly, the extensive advising campaign might not result in the effectiveness whichthe author expects. To illustrate this view, I point out several flaws towards advertisement as follows. First, the extensive advising campaign is necessarilyinevitably to increase the products costsas well as the games’ price, and then inevitably to raise the games’ price可去掉. It might be reflected on the declination of sales as the prohibitively expense 没有看懂of the games for the aimed player group. Secondly, are there some competing products that might serve to diminish sales of Whirlwind’s new games? If it is true, perhaps the competitors will reduce or discount their products’ price or even take a far more extensive advising campaign over Whirlwind’s one to compete in the marketplace. Thirdly, while other age-groups see the Whirlwind’s advisement specific to 10-25 years old age-group, the impression of Whirlwind’s products might be imprinted as unfit games to them, and then the aimed group of sales might be bounded so specifically that it would perhaps lead to the decrease of Whirlwind’s sales. Finally, the advising strategies that serve to promote sales of new games also promoted by Whirlwind causing the decrease in past 2-year这句话的谓语不明．
　　Even if the author can substantiate the foregoing assumptions, I remain suspect that the strategies can not result in increase of sales during such a short time. Perhaps the dominant types of computer games change seasonally. Or perhaps, to the extent that Whirlwind video games invested largely in producing such fashionable but expensive realistic graphics games, the investment might not be rapidly counteracted by sales in a short time. Yet, without any evidence that the dominant types of games might not alter quickly during sales of Whirlwind’s new games and sales can counteract the investment in the next few month, the author’s assumption might be partially effective in a normal even slow rate of increase of sales.
　　In sum, the assumption is not well supported. To strengthen it the author must provide clear evidence that the dominant feature of one game the most game players pay attention to is its realistic graphics, and that10-25 years old enthusiasts are likely to be interest in Whirlwind’s products over other competing games, and thenthat they can afford to purchase them. Finally, to better evaluate the argument I would need more information about what causes the past 2-year inclinationdeclination of sales and whether the current strategy has thesame similar causes that should be eliminated; and how much whirlwind costsspends on in the game development and the advertising campaign.
觉得你的思维好发散，好多都是我没有想到的可能性。赞~~~~~
不过个人觉得ARG没有必要写这么长，也不太可能30分钟能敲完这么多字，所以有些可能性是不是可以考虑综合成一大点来说，简洁明了

vanluckerUID：2267009

我参考了老外里的范文,不知不觉就....
总之THX A LOT!

vanluckerUID：2267009

    In this editorial the author concluded that Whirlwind video games are likely not only to reverse its declination, as well as to increase dramatically its sales. To support the conclusion the author cites a survey concerning video games and the extensive advising campaign Whirlwind started. And then he claims that sales will be boosted dramatically. The author’s argument relies on a number of dubious assumptions and is therefore unconvincing.(69 words less than former 109 -_-! )
    Turning first to the survey upon which the argument depends. This survey provides no assurances that the preference of the respondents being similar to the one of the potential customers is reliable. As I see it, the respondents might not be the typical of the potential customers due to the low number of the respondents, the different age-group each respondent belong to, the different income of each respondent, or the like. Moreover, perhaps such an unreasonable survey is also trusted by Whirlwind during the past 2-year. Thus, without considering and ruling out these possibilities, the author cannot justifiably conclude that the survey serves the dramatic increase of sales.
    Secondly, the author fails to consider another important factor – the expense of the up-to-date computers which players must face. It would be inevitable that many players might abandon purchasing Whirlwind’s new games unless they cost largely to an up-to-day computer. Moreover, the sales might be boosted slowly as the largely costs to develop such hi-tech games and therefore the high price of new games, let alone to increase dramatically.
    Thirdly, the extensive advising campaign might not result in the expected effectiveness. According to the editorial, this advising campaign only directed at the 10-25 years old age-group while neglected other age-groups. The Whirlwind’s games might therefore be impressed as unfit games to the players of other age-group. Moreover, the more money the extensive advising campaign cost to Whirlwind, the higher price the new games would be, and then the less consumers the new games would attract. Meanwhile, there might be some other competitors that they might reduce or discount their games’ price or even take a far more extensive advising campaign over us in order to compete in marketplace. Besides, the advisement of the campaign might also be made by the same advisement agency which made advisements for Whirlwind in the past 2-year. Perhaps the declination was due to the agency’s inability.
    Finally, even if the author can substantiate the foregoing assumptions, I remain suspect that the strategies can not result in increase of sales during such a short time. Perhaps the dominant types of computer games change seasonally. Or perhaps, to the extent that Whirlwind video games invested largely in developing such popular but expensive realistic graphics games, the investment might not be rapidly counteracted by sales in a short time. Yet, without any evidence that the dominant types of games might not alter quickly during sales of Whirlwind’s new games and sales can counteract the investment in the next few month, the author’s assumption might be partially effective in a normal even slow rate of increase of sales.
    In sum, the assumption is not well supported. To strengthen it the author must provide clear evidence that the dominant feature of one game the most game players pay attention to is its realistic graphics, and that10-25 years old enthusiasts are likely to be interest in Whirlwind’s products over other competing games, and then that they can afford to purchase them. Finally, to better evaluate the argument I would need more information about what causes the past 2-year declination of sales and whether the current strategy has the same similar causes which should be eliminated; and how much whirlwind spends on the game development and the advertising campaign.

改完了,好累啊

[ 本帖最后由 vanlucker 于 2007-2-15 23:41 编辑 ]