Argument38【Persistence小组】第18次作业

Andy85UID: 2250503

A38
隔壁市吃鱼的人多,感冒的人少-->吃鱼能防感冒-->吃I食品能防感冒-->本市的人应该多吃一种从鱼油里提取出来的东西以降低旷课旷工的人数
1 吃鱼和防感冒可能有相关性,但不一定有因果关系,研究显示W地的人感冒少,可能是W地气候条件较好,气温较高,且变化小;也可能W的人感冒后不都去看医生,自己在家吃药,休息
2 即使吃鱼能防感冒,有此推出吃I食品有同样的效果是不合理的,没有证据显示防感冒的物质在鱼油里
3 最大的问题: 本市的感冒率真的有那么高?也许大家都在用感冒做旷工旷课的借口;即使吃I食品可以防感冒,情况也不会有好转.

The argument above asserts that if the people in West Meria (WE) take Ichthaid which is derived from fish oil everyday, the problem of
absenteeism caused by cold will be resolved since fish can prevent person from colds. For supporting examples, the arguer cites the
result of study carried out in East Meria (EM). This conclusion seems to be reasonable; however, it is not sound as it stands.

In the first place, whether fish has an effect in preventing colds remains open. According to the study, we can only conclude that there might be a correlation between the high assumption of fish and the low rate of colds. And it is too hasty for the arguer to assert that
there is a cause-effect relationship between them since there might be many other factors that he fails to notice. Perhaps the weather
in EM is warm and does not change too much or too quickly, thus the people there seldom catch cold. And perhaps many people in EM do not go to see a doctor and just stay at home and take some pills.

In the second place, even if fish does have a positive effect in preventing cold, it is not reasonable for the arguer to recommend the
daily use of Ichthaid. For no information in the statement indicates that the fish oil contends the substance in fish that could serve to
prevent colds, in other word, that fish oil has the same function with fish. If not, no matter how much Ichthaid the people in WM take, the condition would not turn any better.

Finally, the most serious problem in this argument is that the arguer did not provide us any evidence that the absenteeism in schools and workplaces of WM is caused by colds. It is very likely that colds are just an excuse for people who do not want to go to work or school.
If it is the case, we also can not expect the suggestion proposed by arguer will significantly reduce the absenteeism.

In sum, if the arguer really hopes to solve the problem of absenteeism, more studies about the really reason for colds in WM should be
conducted; more information of the function of fish and fish oil in keep people healthy should be collected.

欣馨之火UID: 2183210

The argument above asserts that if the people in West Meria (WE) take Ichthaid which is derived from fish oil everyday, the problem of absenteeism caused by cold will be resolved since fish can prevent person from colds. For supporting examples, the arguer cites the result of study carried out in East Meria (EM). This conclusion seems to be reasonable; however, it is not sound as it stands.

In the first place, whether fish has an effect in preventing colds remains open. According to the study, we can only conclude that there might be a correlation between the high assumption of fish and the low rate of colds. And it is too hasty for the arguer to assert that there is a cause-effect relationship between them since there might be many other factors that he fails to notice. Perhaps the weather in EM is warm and does not change too much or too quickly, thus the people there seldom catch cold. And perhaps many people in EM do not go to see a doctor and just stay at home and take some pills.

In the second place, even if fish does have a positive effect in preventing cold, it is not reasonable for the arguer to recommend the daily use of Ichthaid. For no information in the statement indicates that the fish oil contends the substance in fish that could serve to prevent colds, in other word, that fish oil has the same function with fish. If not, no matter how much Ichthaid the people in WM take, the condition would not turn any better.

Finally, the most serious （个人认为，既然是most serious problem，干嘛不放到一开始写呢？按照老美的习惯，越严重的问题，放到前面，你本身的论证就越有力！）problem in this argument is that the arguer did not provide us any evidence that the absenteeism in schools and workplaces of WM is caused by colds. It is very likely that colds are just an excuse for people who do not want to go to work or school. If it is the case, we also can not expect the suggestion proposed by arguer will significantly reduce the absenteeism.

In sum, if the arguer really hopes to solve the problem of absenteeism, more studies about the really reason for colds in WM should be conducted; more information of the function of fish and fish oil in keep people healthy should be collected.

A看来已经很纯熟了，没什么大问题。掌握好时间，就A来说，可以上战场了。