65. The following appeared in a memo from the president of a chain of cheese stores located throughout the United States.
"For many years all the stores in our chain have stocked a wide variety of both domestic and imported cheeses. Last year,
however, the five best-selling cheeses at our newest store were all domestic cheddar cheeses from Wisconsin. Furthermore, a
recent survey by Cheeses of the World magazine indicates an increasing preference for domestic cheeses among its subscribers.
Since our company can reduce expenses by limiting inventory, the best way to improve profits in all of our stores is to
discontinue stocking many of our varieties of imported cheese and concentrate primarily on domestic cheeses."
In this memo, the president of the chain of cheese stores recommends that the best way to improve profits in all of their
stores is to concentrate primarily on domestic cheeses while discontinue stocking imported cheese. To support this
recommendation, the president cites a survey conducted by Cheeses of the World magazine and the selling status of their
newest store. Close scrutiny of the survey and the evidence, however, reveals that none of them lend credible support to the
recommendation.
First of all, the president fails to justify that limiting inventory, which means discontinue stocking many of their
varieties of imported cheeses and concentrate on domestic cheese, can improve profits of their company. No information about
the selling of imported cheese of the company has been given. If it can also earn the company much money, the revenues would
probably decrease significantly by discontinue stocking imported cheeses. Therefore, the increase of profits is uncertain,
considering the interaction of expenses and revenues.
Secondly, the mere fact that best-selling cheeses at the newest store were domestic cheeses cannot substantiate the whole
selling trend of all their stores. It is entirely possible that the location of the newest store is near to Wisconsin and the
people prefer buying cheeses from there just to support the local economy, or perhaps only in that store, the domestic
cheeses are the best-selling ones. Without considering these alternative explanations, the president hastily draws the
conclusion that concentrating primarily on domestic cheeses is the best way to improve profits.
Furthermore, the survey conducted by that magazine is unsubstantiated. No evidence support that the subscribers of the
magazine can be representative of the potential customers of the stores. If the subscribers are limited in a small group, and
therefore, the results of the survey do not necessarily indicate that domestic cheese is the favorite one, considering the
potential customers of that chain would range throughout the United States.
In sum, the memo relies on several doubtful evidences that render it unconvincing as it stands. To bolster it, the president
as to give more evidence to substantiate that the respondents to the survey can represent the potential customers, and I
still need more information about expense and revenue status of their stores.
First of all, the president fails to justify that limiting inventory, which means discontinue stocking many of their
varieties of imported cheeses and concentrate on domestic cheese( 好像没有这种含义), can improve profits of their company. No information about
the selling of imported cheese of the company has been given. If it can also earn the company much money, the revenues would
probably decrease significantly by discontinue stocking imported cheeses. Therefore, the increase of profits is uncertain,
considering the interaction of expenses and revenues(considering the diiference in revenes between imported cheese and the domestic ones).
Secondly, the mere fact that best-selling cheeses at the newest store were domestic cheeses cannot substantiate the whole
selling trend of all their stores. It is entirely possible that the location of the newest store is near to Wisconsin and the
people prefer buying cheeses from there just to (just for /only to ) support the local economy, or perhaps only in that store, the domestic
cheeses are the best-selling ones. Without considering these alternative explanations, the president hastily draws the
conclusion that concentrating primarily on domestic cheeses is the best way to improve profits.