Argument47 【flying小组】第五次作业

千年子猫UID: 2237656

TOPIC: ARGUMENT47 - Scientists studying historical weather patterns have discovered that in the mid-sixth century, Earth suddenly became significantly cooler. Although few historical records survive from that time, some accounts found both in Asia and Europe mention a dimming of the sun and extremely cold temperatures. Either a huge volcanic eruption or a large meteorite colliding with Earth could have created a large dust cloud throughout Earth's atmosphere that would have been capable of blocking enough sunlight to lower global temperatures significantly. A large meteorite collision, however, would probably create a sudden bright flash of light, and no extant historical records of the time mention such a flash. Some surviving Asian historical records of the time, however, mention a loud boom that would be consistent with a volcanic eruption. Therefore, the cooling was probably caused by a volcanic eruption.
WORDS: 332          TIME: 上午 12:26:03          DATE: 2007-2-23
提纲：
1无法证实当时的巨响是来自于火山爆发，并且也没有数据说明火山爆发之后气温下降。
2有可能撞击的闪光被人们忽略了，或者当时的纪录并没有被发现。
3作者无法排除其他可能的原因，不能就此下结论

The author gives a conclusion that the cooling is probably caused by a volcanic eruption. To confirm it, he points out that there is not any data mentioned lightening which will occur if there is a large meteorite. Although the argument is well presented, the result from the author is not sensitivity.

First of all, the basement of the conclusion is the volcanic eruption had really happened. But the words above have no expression about that. The record only mentions the loud boom but does not explain whether this is caused by a volcanic eruption. Maybe it is not the sound of volcanic eruption. Even if it is the sound of that, the relationship between the volcanic eruption and the weather raises for consideration, too. Whether the volcanic directly cause the cooling or not is still not clear. There are not any data shows the weather changed quickly after the loud.

Secondly, just as the author says, a large meteorite collision would probably create a sudden bright flash of light; it is also probably that the flash was considered as a normal lighting and not been recorded. On the other hand, as it is too long from them, the recorded letter may be destroyed in times of disaster. Even if the record is excise, it also need time to find out them. Furthermore, if the situation occurred before the time people use paper, theinexistence of record would be inevitable.

What is more, the author only provides two probabilities but fails to consider other feasibilities. In fact, the cooling could be caused by other reasons. The author only said volcanic eruption and meteorite collision could cause cooling, but not proved there are not any other reasons. Maybe the real reason has not been found by people yet. So making conclusion only by the evidence he gave is not believable.

In sum, the result is no sense. The author needs more evidence to prove the right of his result. He needs to collect more data about the situation in the ancient time and compares his reason to all the other possible ones.

[ 本帖最后由 千年子猫 于 2007-2-23 16:14 编辑 ]

mubbyUID: 2300654

The author gives a conclusion that the cooling is probably caused by a volcanic eruption. To confirm it, he points out that there is not any data mentioned lightening which will occur if there is a large meteorite[看看这句是不是有逻辑错误呢？行星来临一定会伴随闪光吗？]. Although the argument is well presented, the result from the author is not sensitivity.[改成形容词]

First of all, the basement of the conclusion is the volcanic eruption had really happened. But the words above have no expression about that. The record only mentions the loud boom but does not explain whether this is caused by a volcanic eruption. Maybe it is not the sound of volcanic eruption. Even if it is the sound of that, the relationship between the volcanic eruption and the weather raises for consideration[这个用法我一次见，学习一下，嘿嘿], too. Whether the volcanic [加上一个eruption好了]directly cause the cooling or not is still not clear. There are not any data shows the weather changed quickly after the loud[粗心了哈，后面还应该有一个词].

Secondly, just as the author says, a large meteorite collision would probably create a sudden bright flash of light; it is also probably that the flash was considered as a normal lighting and not been recorded. On the other hand, as it is too long from them[这里的他们是指谁呢？], the recorded letter may be destroyed in times of disaster. Even if the record is excise, it also needs time to find out them. Furthermore, if the situation occurred before the time people use paper, thein existence of record would be inevitable.

What is more, the author only provides two probabilities but fails to consider other feasibilities. In fact, the cooling could be caused by other reasons. The author only said volcanic eruption and meteorite collision could cause cooling, but not proved there are not any other reasons.[这段的意思很明白，展开的在具体一些就更好了] Maybe the real reason has not been found by people yet. So making conclusion only by the evidence he gave is not believable.

In sum, the result is no sense. The author needs more evidence to prove the right of his result. He needs to collect more data about the situation in the ancient time and compares his reason to all the other possible ones.

如果没有猜错的话，诗诗的这一篇写得很匆忙，大体上虽然说清楚了，但是文章有些粗糙，估计issue花的时间太多了，可以理解哈，呵呵。

[ 本帖最后由 mubby 于 2007-2-23 20:42 编辑 ]

千年子猫UID: 2237656

唉~是啊 这篇有点赶了 比较粗糙
难为你看这篇argu了555
还要努力呀~~加油加油！