argument65 天下无G组 为什么argu这么难....越写越没底

lindorUID: 2290025

TOPIC: ARGUMENT65 - The following appeared in a memo from the president of a chain of cheese stores located throughout the United States.

"For many years all the stores in our chain have stocked a wide variety of both domestic and imported cheeses. Last year, however, the five best-selling cheeses at our newest store were all domestic cheddar cheeses from Wisconsin. Furthermore, a recent survey by Cheeses of the World magazine indicates an increasing preference for domestic cheeses among its subscribers. Since our company can reduce expenses by limiting inventory, the best way to improve profits in all of our stores is to discontinue stocking many of our varieties of imported cheese and concentrate primarily on domestic cheeses."
WORDS: 442          TIME: 0:30:00          DATE: 2007-2-24

The arguer's conclusion seems logical at the first glance that the best way to improve profits in all stores is to discontinue stocking imported cheese and concentrate primarily on domestic cheese. However, upon close scrutiny, this conclusion is unreasonable for suffering several critical flaws.

To begin with, the arguer fails to attest that the imported cheeses are not popular and the domestic cheeses are prevailing in the newest store.  There is no direct information on sales of imported cheeses. Perhaps all customers only choose the five kinds of domestic cheeses, but prefer to buy different kinds of imported cheeses each time, therefore, the total sales of cheese of the certain kind can't firmly support the assumption that all imported cheeses are disliked by the majority of customers.

Furthermore, even though the total sales of domestic cheeses are higher than those of imported cheeses, the arguer fails to prove that the profits of domestic cheeses are also higher than that of imported cheeses. It is possible that the store provide significant discounts on these five kinds of domestic cheeses to attract customers, while imported cheeses stay at high prices. If so, the pure profits of the five best-selling cheeses would be lower than that of imported cheeses.  And perhaps, if such discounts were canceled, the sales of the five best-selling cheeses would fall dramatically at once.

Besides, the one year period of time is not a particularly long time to determine the popularity of cheeses in the newest store and in the whole country.  After all, the favor of customers would change a lot year by year. Perhaps local customers would want to change a taste and prefer imported cheeses at the next year. Also, the taste of customers in other regions would be diverse, so whether all customers would continue to favor domestic cheeses is open into doubt.

In addition, the recent survey mentioned in this argument does not lend strong support to the conclusion that all customers tend to prefer domestic cheeses.  We are not informed how many subscribers made a respond to this survey. If the number of respondents is quite few, the result of this survey could not be representative of the people as a whole.  On the other hand, we are not informed whether those respondents will not buy imported cheeses, or buy domestic cheese more times. If they would keep buying imported cheeses, discontinuing stocking many of varieties of imported cheese would lose many customers and potential profits. As a common sense, it would not the best way to limit inventory at the cost of profits.

In general, the conclusion reached in this argument is suspicious and illegitimate since the evidence it cites is unconvincing. To bolster the conclusion, the arguer should provide more information on the worldwide trend of the consumption of cheeses. Additionally, the arguer should consider other effective measures to limit inventory.

lindorUID: 2290025

To begin with, it is groundless to assume that imported cheeses have no profit on the basis of the fact that the five best-selling cheeses were all domestic cheeses in the newest store last year. There is no direct evidence about the resistance of imported cheeses there. Perhaps customers buy imported cheeses as well as domestic cheeses, but the total sale of the latter excels that of the former, because the latter one is much cheaper. If so, even if the sale is lower, the profit of imported cheeses would be higher.

Besides, whether the higher sale of domestic cheeses will keep forever is open into doubt. It is in all likelihood that the high sale of the aforementioned five kinds of domestic cheeses is attributed to their tempting discounts for attracting customers. As we know, this is a common strategy for a new store. Therefore perhaps once the discount is canceled, the sale of these domestic cheeses would fall dramatically. After all, the one year period is not a particular long time to determine that customers will always favor domestic cheeses.

Furthermore, the recent survey mentioned in this argument does not lend strong support to the conclusion that customers of all stores will prefer domestic cheeses. We are not informed how many subscribers made a respond to this survey. If the number of respondents is quite few, the result of this survey could not be representative of the people as a whole. We are not informed either where do these respondents come from. If most of them are living in the same region, the result of this survey could not illustrate the trend in the whole country. On the other hand, it is unclear that whether those respondents will not buy imported cheeses, or buy domestic cheese more times. If they would keep buying imported cheeses, discontinuing stocking many of varieties of imported cheese would lose many customers and potential profits.

Finally, the arguer fails to attest that it is necessary to discontinue stocking imported cheeses. There is no evidence to show that the supply of imported cheeses far exceeds the demand of them. And the inventory fee of imported cheeses is impossible quite fewer than the revenue they brought. Also, even if most customers prefer domestic cheeses, there are still possible customers who want to buy imported cheeses. It is presumptuous to ignore the requirement of these customers, who would finally turn to competitive stores against our stores.

In general, the conclusion reached in this argument is suspicious and illegitimate since the evidence it cites is unconvincing. To bolster the conclusion, the arguer should provide more information on the worldwide trend of the consumption of cheeses. Additionally, the arguer should consider other effective measures to limit inventory.