Argument65 【天下无G askme习作】第19次作业

askmeUID: 2264776

TOPIC: ARGUMENT65 - The following appeared in a memo from the president of a chain of cheese stores located throughout the United States.

"For many years all the stores in our chain have stocked a wide variety of both domestic and imported cheeses. Last year, however, the five best-selling cheeses at our newest store were all domestic cheddar cheeses from Wisconsin. Furthermore, a recent survey by Cheeses of the World magazine indicates an increasing preference for domestic cheeses among its subscribers. Since our company can reduce expenses by limiting inventory, the best way to improve profits in all of our stores is to discontinue stocking many of our varieties of imported cheese and concentrate primarily on domestic cheeses."
WORDS: 554          TIME: 0:30:00          DATE: 2007-2-24

Giving some facts and analysis, the argument that the cheese store should discontinue stocking imported cheese and concentrate primarily on domestic cheeses seems logical. However, a careful examination of this argument would reveal how groundless the conclusion is.

To begin with, the sales in the newest store in Wisconsin might not be representative of all cheese stores. As common sense and experience tells us that other factors might also contribute to the fact that the five best-selling cheeses were all domestic. It is highly possible that only people, living in Wisconsin, prefer domestic cheeses, because these cheeses are made in Wisconsin and thus satisfy specially local people's taste, while people elsewhere might prefer imported cheeses. In addition, it is also possible that since the store was open recently, it reduced the prices of these domestic cheeses in order to attract customers. If so, the arguer cannot infer that people elsewhere would also like to buy domestic cheeses. Without ruling out these and other possibilities, the conclusion is unconvincing.

Furthermore, the conclusion rests on the survey that an increasing preference for domestic cheeses among its subscribers. However, the survey cited here is too vague to be informative. First, we find no sign of such procedures for random sampling, thus doubting whether the sample is representative of the general attitude of consumers as a whole. If, for example, the sample is limited to a certain people, such as those who are too old to adjust their taste to imported cheese, it is natural for them to answer that they prefer domestic cheese. Second, we are not informed how the survey was conducted. If the survey was conducted by surveyors from domestic cheese factories or if the question were leading, the subjects might echo with expected answers, and thus the results are doubtful.

Moreover, even if the survey is reliable enough, the arguer fails to provide information about how popular the domestic cheeses are now. It is said that  there is an increasing preference for domestic cheeses. Yet, if few or none preferred domestic cheeses in the past, we can even claim that there is 'an increasing preference' when faced with only no more than one hundred consumers now. Without ruling out this possibility, the arguer’s conclusion is beyond credibility.

Finally, even if the domestic cheeses are popular now, it does follow that the stores should discontinue imported cheeses. The arguer fails to weigh revenue in imported cheeses against their expense. It is highly possible that they can earn much more profit from imported cheeses, because the price of imported cheeses is very high but the cost is extremely low. If so, it is unwise to forgo such exciting profit. In addition, it is also possible that the domestic cheeses are oversupplied. Under this circumstance, the plan to concentrate on domestic cheeses will bring about devaluation of domestics cheeses and eventually decrease in profit. In short, any of these scenarios, if true, would serve to undermine the conclusion.

To sum up, the conclusion lacks credibility because the evidence cited here lends no strong support to what the arguer maintains. To strengthen this argument, the arguer should provide more evidence about the reliability of the survey. To better evaluate this argument, we need more information about the expense and revenue of both imported and domestic cheeses.

lindorUID: 2290025

你的分段的主论点都很清晰..
值得学习..
尤其是第一段展开的很好.

jacanaUID: 2292520

Giving some facts and analysis, the argument that the cheese store should discontinue stocking imported cheese and concentrate primarily on domestic cheeses seems logical. However, a careful examination of this argument would reveal how groundless the conclusion is.

To begin with, the sales in the newest store in Wisconsin might not be representative of all cheese stores. As common sense and experience tells us that other factors might also contribute to the fact that the five best-selling cheeses were all domestic. It is highly possible that only people, living in Wisconsin, prefer domestic cheeses, (逗号是不是太多了点，读起来好憋气……)because these cheeses are made in Wisconsin and thus satisfy specially local people's taste, while people elsewhere might prefer imported cheeses. In addition, it is also possible that since the store was open recently, it reduced the prices of these domestic cheeses in order to attract customers. If so, the arguer cannot infer that people elsewhere would also like to buy domestic cheeses. Without ruling out these and other possibilities, the conclusion is unconvincing.

Furthermore, the conclusion rests on the survey that an increasing preference for domestic cheeses among its subscribers. However, the survey cited here is too vague to be informative. First, we find no sign of such procedures for random sampling, thus doubting whether the sample is representative of the general attitude of consumers as a whole. If, for example, the sample is limited to a certain people, such as those who are too old to adjust their taste to imported cheese, it is natural for them to answer that they prefer domestic cheese. Second, we are not informed how the survey was conducted. If the survey was conducted by surveyors from domestic cheese factories or if the question were leading, the subjects might echo with expected answers, and thus the results are doubtful.

Moreover, even if the survey is reliable enough, the arguer fails to provide information about how popular the domestic cheeses are now. It is said that  there is an increasing preference for domestic cheeses. Yet, if few or none preferred domestic cheeses in the past, we can even claim that there is 'an increasing preference' when faced with only no more than one hundred consumers now. Without ruling out this possibility, the arguer’s conclusion is beyond credibility.
这一段论证得不太令人信服

Finally, even if the domestic cheeses are popular now, it does follow that the stores should discontinue imported cheeses. The arguer fails to weigh revenue in imported cheeses against their expense. It is highly possible that they can earn much more profit from imported cheeses, because the price of imported cheeses is very high but the cost is extremely low. If so, it is unwise to forgo such exciting profit. In addition, it is also possible that the domestic cheeses are oversupplied. Under this circumstance, the plan to concentrate on domestic cheeses will bring about devaluation of domestics cheeses and eventually decrease in profit. In short, any of these scenarios, if true, would serve to undermine the conclusion.
只一家供货商提高domestic cheese的数量不至于贬值吧……说进口的价钱extremely low也有点偏激

To sum up, the conclusion lacks credibility because the evidence cited here lends no strong support to what the arguer maintains. To strengthen this argument, the arguer should provide more evidence about the reliability of the survey. To better evaluate this argument, we need more information about the expense and revenue of both imported and domestic cheeses.