Argument10【~4而后生~小组】第三次作业,求拍！

insideUID: 2303230

ARGUMENT10

The following appeared in a letter to the editor of a Batavia newspaper.

"The department of agriculture in Batavia reports that the number of dairy farms throughout the country is now 25 percent greater than it was 10 years ago. During this same time period, however, the price of milk at the local Excello Food Market has increased from $1.50 to over $3.00 per gallon. To prevent farmers from continuing to receive excessive profits on an apparently increased supply of milk, the Batavia government should begin to regulate retail milk prices. Such regulation is necessary to ensure both lower prices and an adequate supply of milk for consumers."

In order to conclude that the Batavia government should begin to regulate retail milk prices to prevent farmers from continuing to receive excessive profits on an apparently increased supply of milk, the arguer has posed several evidence, including some statistic data, survey report and logic analysis. However, these evidence are not strong enough to support the conclusion.

First of all, as for the survey of the milk price in a local market, which is aimed at pointing out that the milk price has increased a lot during the past 10 years, the quantity of sample--only one local market is considered--is too few to have great value. It is likely that only the milk price in Excello Food Market is greater than before since its inconvenient location or the high property(房地产) price, while the milk prices in other markets are the same as before or even declined. Furthermore, the arguer does not take into account the probably inflation in the survey, which may, on the contrary, mean a decrease of milk prices in reality, because while the milk price has increased from $1.50 to over $3.00, the other commodity prices might have increased more the 5 times than before.

Another fallacy is the arguer simply treats the increased number of dairy farms as the increased supply of milk. In fact, they do not have much to do with each other. Maybe the big farms are divided into some small ones without any increase of milk cows, and this division leads to an augment of the farms but not the milk. Or even, a large numbers of the cows might die from a seriously disease, and such deaths directly lead to the drop of the supply of milk and an augment of the milk price.

And also, while estimating the profit of an industry, the cost, which the arguer overlooks, should be considered. To maintain the farm, to raise the cows, to transport the milk, all of the above need money which should be included into the cost of the milk industry. If the price of milk has increased during the past 10 years, accompanied with the simultaneous increase of the cost of milk, it is still unclear whether the farmers will receive great profits.

Even if the farmers really receive excessive profits, is it necessary to begin such a regulation? To regulate the retail milk prices may strike the farmers, who might lose interest in the milk industry, and therefore an unexpected reduction of milk will happen. Maybe there are some wiser means to deal with the problems, for example to raise the cost of the milk industry by levying more taxes on it.

Finally, the analysis that the regulation will ensure both lower prices and adequate supply of milk for consumers is unconvincing. The two things, actually, are contrary to one another in economics, for the lower prices are not attractive to the farmers and accordingly they will reduce some of their milk output.

To sum up, the arguer does not adequately demonstrate that the regulation of milk prices are useful and necessary, so we can hardly accept his conclusion.

[ 本帖最后由 lastangel 于 2007-3-9 09:02 编辑 ]

napUID: 196976

In order to conclude thatthe Batavia government should begin to regulate retail milk prices toprevent farmers from continuing to receive excessive profits on anapparently increased supply of milk, the arguer has posed severalevidence, including some statistic data, survey report and logicanalysis. However, these evidence are(我没查到evidence到底有没有复数) not strong enough to support theconclusion.

First of all, as for thesurvey of the milk price in a local market, which is aimed at pointingout that the milk price has increased a lot during the past 10 years,the quantity of sample--only one local market is considered--is too fewto have great value. It is likely that only the milk price in ExcelloFood Market is greater than before since its inconvenient location orthe high property(房地产 real estate?)price, while the milk prices in other markets are the same as before oreven declined. Furthermore, the arguer does not take into account theprobably inflation in the survey, which may, on the contrary, mean adecrease of milk prices in reality, because while the milk price hasincreased from $1.50 to over $3.00, the other commodity prices mighthave increased more the 5 times than before.

Another fallacy is thearguer simply treats the increased number of dairy farms as theincreased supply of milk. In fact, they do not have much to do witheach other. Maybe the big farms are divided into some small oneswithout any increase of milk cows, and this division leads to anaugment of the farms but not the milk. Or even, a large numbers of thecows might die from a seriously(serious?) disease, and such deaths directly leadto the drop of the supply of milk and an augment of the milk price.
(作者好像没提到number of dairy farms增长对价格有什么影响， 只谈到要regulate the price)

And also, while estimatingthe profit of an industry, the cost, which the arguer overlooks, shouldbe considered(有点复杂,句子重点不太突出). To maintain the farm, to raise the cows, to transportthe milk, all of the above need money which should be included into thecost of the milk industry. If the price of milk has increased duringthe past 10 years, accompanied with the simultaneous increase of thecost of milk, it is still unclear whether the farmers will receivegreat profits.

Even if the farmers reallyreceive excessive profits, is it necessary to begin such a regulation?To regulate the retail milk prices may strike the farmers, who mightlose interest in the milk industry, and therefore an unexpectedreduction of milk will happen. Maybe there are some wiser means to dealwith the problems(means deals with the problems?好像是病句), for example to raise the cost of the milk industryby levying more taxes on it.

Finally, the analysis thatthe regulation will ensure both lower prices and adequate supply ofmilk for consumers is unconvincing. The two things, actually, arecontrary to one another in economics, for the lower prices are notattractive to the farmers and accordingly they will reduce some oftheir milk output. (感觉没说完)

To sum up, the arguer doesnot adequately demonstrate that the regulation of milk prices areuseful and necessary, so we can hardly accept his conclusion.(同上)