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TOPIC: ARGUMENT209 - The following recommendation was made by the Human Resources Manager to the board of directors of the Fancy Toy Company.
"In the last three quarters of this year, under the leadership of our president, Pat Salvo, our profits have fallen considerably. Thus, we should ask for her resignation in return for a generous severance package. In Pat's place, we should appoint Rosa Winnings. Rosa is currently president of Starlight Jewelry, a company whose profits have increased dramatically over the past several years. Although we will have to pay Rosa twice the salary that Pat has been receiving, it will be well worth it because we can soon expect our profits to increase considerably."
WORDS: 492 TIME: 0:29:38 DATE: 2007-3-11
In this argument, the arguer claims that the Fancy Toy Company (FTC) should hire Rosa as their president, and the profits of FTC will increase considerably. At first glance, this argument sounds reasonable; however, a careful examination of it would reveal how groundless the arguer's claim is.
First of all, the causal relation between the decrease of profits in the last three quarters and the leadership of the current president Pat Salvo is unwarranted. The auger provides no evidence to support his argument. As we know, there are a lot of factors affecting the profits of a company. It's possible that in the last three quarters, the markets of the FTC all suffered from the economical regression and the average salaries of parents decreased, therefore, parents would like to spend less on their children's toys. It's also very likely that in the last three quarters, the prices of the materials FTC use for making toys, such as plastic and steel, increase quickly and this would also result in a decrease in the profits. Without ruling out these and those possible factors affecting the profits, it's unfair to blame the leadership of Salvo.
In addition, the causal relation between the increase of profits of Starlight Jewelry and the leadership of Rosa is also unwarranted. The arguer fails to consider other possible factors leading to the increase of profits. For instance, as the fast development of the economical condition in the marketplaces of Starlight Jewelry, more and more people have enough money to buy some jewelry and the increasing demands from consumers resulted in the increase of profits of many jewelry companies. Starlight Jewelry is just one of them while there is even faster profits increase in other jewelry companies. In this case, the increase of profits has nothing to do with the leadership of Rosa.
Even if the leadership quality of Rosa is far beyond that of Salvo, the arguer's conclusion that it can be expected that the FTC's profits will increase considerably is dubious. The arguer fails to consider the intrinsic difference between a toy company and a jewelry company, such as the difference between the products, the target consumers, and the sales strategies. There is no guarantee that Rosa will have the same success when she turns to run a toy company. It's possible that Rosa is good at attracting the rich customers; however she doesn't know well how to sell products to the commons. Furthermore, the arguer fails to find out other factors resulting in the decrease of profits of FTC, such as economical regression and increase prices of materials. Without examining these factors, the arguer's claim that the profits of FTC will increase considerably is open to question.
In summary, the arguer's conclusion lacks credibility. To strengthen his argument, the arguer should provide more evidence that the relation between the changing profits and the leadership of Salvo or Rosa. The arguer should also consider other factors affecting the profits. |
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