argument117 [AWB小组]第十次作业

tly823UID: 2145205

117.The following is a memo from the business manager of Valu-Mart stores.

"Over 70 percent of the respondents to a recent survey reported that they are required to take more work home with them from the workplace than they were in the past. Since Valu-Mart has not seen impressive sales in its office-supply departments in the past, we should take advantage of this work-at-home trend by increasing at all Valu-Mart stores the stock of home office machines such as printers, small copy machines, paper shredders, and fax machines. We will also increase stock of office supplies such as paper, pens, and staplers. With these changes, our office-supply departments will become the most profitable component of our stores."

Before the Valu-Mart Stores turns their sale focus to home office supply based on a recent survey, I insist the business manager to reconsider about his unwarranted assertion that is fraught with dubious assumptions, which renders it entirely unconvincing.

The threshold problem in this argument is the reliability of the response that 70 percent of the respondents reported that they are required to take more work home with them than in the past. The manager provides no evidence the survey's respondents are representatives of all the office workers. Maybe these respondents are happened to be the workers for the large companies  of have much higher pressure which causes the worker have to take more work home from workplace. And it is entirely possible that people who have never take home the work were not willing to response to the survey as the 70 percent complainers. In short, without better evidence that the survey is statistically reliable ,the arguer cannot rely on it to draw his firm conclusion about the trend of work-at-home.

In addition, granted the survey virtually reflect the trend that employees take more and more work home ,the manager unfairly assumes that the past impressive sales in its office-supply department can be remedied by taking advantage of the work-at-home trend. The manager does not find out the rudimental reason that leads to the impressive sale----perhaps the stagnation attribute to the office machines themselves, such as the poor design and expensive price close the door to the ordinary consumers. Thus ,no matter how the Valu-Mart store takes the advantage of this work-at -home trend, hardly can the selling mount up in the future.

Even if I were to concede that the seizing this trend will definitely change the past impressive sales, the author’s claim that stocking more home office machined such as printers, small copy machines, paper shredders, and fax machines, etc. will be feasible in practice. The work-at-home trend does not necessarily mean that there will be a larger demand of office supplies. The articles ,like printers, small copy machine, paper shredders does not increase accompanying the increase of the amount of home work. This scenario, if true, would cast considerable doubt on the manager’ recommended manner to promote the office supplies selling.

Finally, the author’s assertion that their office-supply departments will become the most profitable component of the whole store is highly untenable. Even assuming that the office-supply department will benefit form their alleged constructive sale pattern, without comparing with other components in the store, it is arbitrary to judge the outstanding of office-supply department. It is quite possible that other parts are more accomplished than office-supply department based on their original predominance or fundamental reforms. If either is the case, then I cannot accept the given conclusion.

In the final analysis, a proper evaluation of the recommendation requires more information about the reliability of the survey and the feasibility of the sale strategy, but the author fails to provide.

[ 本帖最后由 tly823 于 2007-3-12 10:36 编辑 ]