Issue120 Argument131 3.14

longxuUID: 2290268

TOPIC: ISSUE120 - "So much is new andcomplex today that looking back for an understanding of the past provideslittle guidance for living in the present."
WORDS: 589          TIME: 0:45:00          DATE: 2007.3.14

Does looking for an understanding of thepast supply us little guidance for living in thepresent time which is new and complex, as the speaker claims? I strongly agreewith the assertion of the speaker insofar as the situation in most aspects ofour modern society is too different from the past. However, when it comes tosome field of present time, the understanding of the past can also provide muchguidance for people nowadays.

In the first place, today is new and thereis little experience we can obtain from the past in that the majority of thethings in contemporary time did not exist in anyother time before. For supporting examples, one need look no further than theInternet. The Internet is developing so rapidly in recent years that nowadayspeople cannot leave it for some weeks. It is the part-and-parcel of modern lifefor the most of people that help us to get immediate domestic and internationalnews and information. However, along with the increasing of the number ofnetizens, we have been confronted by more and more problems about the crimerelevant to Internet. Because there is no experience in the past for nowadayspeople to get, we have to depend on ourselves and deal with the extant troubleswhich are too new for the past time.

In the second place, lots of complex issuesare coming to our present time as a result of globalization. For instance, wecould take into account the issues about the global warming which is one of themost serious problems for our contemporary people. Along with the developmentof economy and technology, there are a growing number of inventions, such asautomobile, battery and so forth, which are at the expense of environment ofthe earth. Though the new invents have brought us great amounts of advantagesand convenience and changed our life style significantly, the problemsfollowing the inventions are too detrimental to our existenceand the limited energy resource. And, the inventions, which are out of theimagination of the past people, are the results of the developmentof the human history. Therefore, we cannot turn to history, that is，the past, for guidance.

It is so true that there is little help forus to turn to the past for, however under some circumstances the past still canguide us to a better solution for a present problem in that the nature ofproblems are usually the same regardless of the time.

Consider the scientific issues that arealways confusing the human beings, for instance. A telling example involves thefield of fluid mechanics in which Ludwig Prandtl is a master of all the timewho proposed his great thought to resolve a marvelous complicated problem.Before the thought, human beings could not deal with the problems that involvedviscous fluid. Only when the simplification Prandtl proposed after many years'research, can people could compute the complicated issues about the plane andaircraft. However, the means of thinking is indeed the same as many otherfields of engineering, that is, to simplify a difficult problem withoutchanging its nature is a means which can applicable to many issues. Therefore,when human is confused by some complicated problems, they can, as the case maybe, resort to the past for guidance.

On the whole, the understanding of the pastcan indeed supply human with experience and knowledge while under most casespeople in our time have to deal with the new and complex issues on their own.


TOPIC: ARGUMENT131 - The following appearedin an environmental newsletter published in Tria Island.

"The marine sanctuary on Tria Islandwas established to protect certain marine mammals. Its regulations ban dumpingand offshore oil drilling within 20 miles of Tria, but fishing is not banned.Currently many fish populations in Tria's waters are declining, a situationblamed on pollution. In contrast, the marine sanctuary on Omni Islandhas regulations that ban dumping, offshore oil drilling, and fishing within 10miles of Omni and Omni reports no significant decline in its fish populations.Clearly, the decline in fish populations in Tria's waters is the result ofoverfishing, not pollution. Therefore, the best way to restore Tria's fishpopulations and to protect all of Tria's marine wildlife is to abandon ourregulations and adopt those of Omni."
WORDS: 441          TIME: 0:30:00          DATE: 2007.3.14

The arguer claims that the best way torestore the fish populations of Tira(T) and to protest all of the marinewildlife of T is to abandon its regulation and adopt the regulation of Omni(O).To justify its conclusion the arguer presents some information about theregulation and the pollution. However, the assumptions about the pollution andthe similarities between T and O are dubious on several grounds, rendering theargument wholly unpersuasive as it stands.

First of all, the arguer unfairly assumesthat the regulation that the measure of banning fishing with 20 miles of T isstrong evidence that the overfishing is the major reason for the declined fishpopulations is unconvincing. It is entirely possible that the fishermen in O are also fishing as usual between 10 and 20 miles of O. It is also possiblethat fishermen in T have not caught many fishes in the last few years. Thus,unless the arguer provides more information about the condition of water andmarine mammals in both T and O, we cannot accept the assumption about theoverfishing.

Next point, the assumption that pollutionis not the reason for the decline of fish populations seems logical but stillcannot be interpreted. Perhaps, the source of pollution in T is not within 20miles, and the pollution is moved into the areas by the waves. Or perhaps, thepeople who travel there drop some food and garbage into the water to attractthe fish. Besides, the arguer fails to presents the information about thepollution in O. Therefore, lacking clear evidence that there is no pollution inT, it is unreasonable for the arguer to draw the conclusion.

Last but not least, the similaritiesbetween T and O are insufficient for us to accept that if T adopts theregulation of O, the situation of fish populations will increase as the arguerassumes. It is likely that even though the fish populations in O have notdeclined, it is possible that the whole number of fish populations is less thanT.  Consequently, it is absurd for T toadopt the regulation of O, without enough evidence that regulation in O will beconducive to the restoration in T.

To sum up, the arguer is indeed logicalunsound with the existing evidence and the flawed assumption. Before any decisionis made, the arguer should demonstrate more clear evidence to inform us aboutthat whether the situation in O is better than T, and the regulation is thebest answer to the advantages. To strongly bolster the argument, the arguershould also present more information about the condition of water in T.

longxuUID: 2290268

Argument 写混乱了
嗯，以后要多加注意诶。时间感觉很紧张。

最後の使徒UID: 2257608

请把习作分开发