argument16 考前模拟谢谢!

450UID: 2319228

TOPIC: ARGUMENT16 - The following appeared in a letter to the editor of a local newspaper from a citizen of the state of Impecunia.

"Two years ago our neighboring state, Lucria, began a state lottery to supplement tax revenues for education and public health. Today, Lucria spends more per pupil than we do, and Lucria's public health program treats far more people than our state's program does. If we were to establish a state lottery like the one in Lucria, the profits could be used to improve our educational system and public health program. The new lottery would doubtless be successful, because a survey conducted in our capital city concludes that citizens of Impecunia already spend an average of $50 per person per year on gambling."
WORDS: 479          TIME: 0:30:28          DATE: 2000-1-1

The conclusion that setting a new lottery in the state of Impecunia would doubtless be successful is logically flawed. I will present my reasons in the following discuss.

To begin with, the evidence of the more money spent on per pupils and the more amount of people accepting the public treatment can indicate that the Lottery is effective in Lucria. On the one hand, it is possible that the Lucria has less pupils than Impecunia but have more total population.In that case, even if the two states have spent the same amount money , Lucria would be higher  than Impecunia on proportion of which the government spends on pupils and the number of people accepting the public treatment. On the other hand, granted that two states have the similar situation on demostatics, then what about the other students but the pupil like the junior and senior students? Do they also get higher auxilary or get less?  The fact that Lucria's public health program treats far more people may reflect the situation that these people get poor healthy because they invested so much on the lottery that they fail to look after themselves. In short, without considering and ruling out the possibility above, the author can not convince me that the lottery policy is in effect in Lucria.

Moreover, assuming that the lottery policy gets excellent performance in Lucria, the author provide no evidence that the two states can be comparative. Commonsense informs us the culture, the interest, the income and so forth will have influenced the trends that whether policy is effective. Perhaps Lucria is a prosperous and open state. People there like the exciting life and prefer to do something helpful to the public.  Failing to consider the difference between the two states Impecunia and Lucria , the author's logic is problematic.

Finally, even if the forgoing evidence is substantiated, the lottery policy in Impecunia is not necessary to be successful. First, although the author presents a survey conducted in  our capital city concluding that citizens of Impecunia already spend an average of $ 50 per year on gambling, it may not represent the situation in Impecunia. After all capital city's people may have more money than people of other places. Second granted that people in Impecunia also spend 50$ on gambling, it does not necessarily mean that these people would invest much on lottery. Perhaps they don't believe that their governers would put the money on public service. Or perhaps they believe gambling can bring them the excitement of winning money that lottery can not give.

To sum up, the argument is not persuasive. To strengthen the conclusion, the author should give more investigation on the lottery development in L and make a broader analysis of the difference of the two states.; and also should do a survey about the citizens' attitude to the lottery in I.

欧羊羊与欧狼狼UID: 2673473

楼主文章写得太好了 无论是论证点和结论都很全面
To begin with, the evidence of the more money spent on per pupils and the more amount of people accepting the public treatment can indicate that the Lottery is effective in Lucria.
这句话是不是在can的后面少了个 not？？

Perhaps they don't believe that their governers would put the money on public service. Or perhaps they believe gambling can bring them the excitement of winning money that lottery can not give.
gambling 包含了lottery 只能说他们可能倾向于其他gambling的方式而不是Lottery