argument147 oceanus4月作文小组4月10日作业

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TOPIC: ARGUMENT147 - The following appeared in an editorial in a business magazine.

"Although the sales of Whirlwind video games have declined over the past two years, a recent survey of video-game players suggests that this sales trend is about to be reversed. The survey asked video-game players what features they thought were most important in a video game. According to the survey, players prefer games that provide lifelike graphics, which require the most up-to-date computers. Whirlwind has just introduced several such games with an extensive advertising campaign directed at people 10 to 25 years old, the age-group most likely to play video games. It follows, then, that the sales of Whirlwind video games are likely to increase dramatically in the next few months."
WORDS: 449          TIME: 0:30:00+5          DATE: 2007-4-10

The argument for that the sales of Whirlwind video games are about to be increase dramatically in the next few months seems logical at first glance. However, the reliability of the survey is suspected and it is not sure that the video-game players will buy its video games.

To begin with, the reliability of the survey is suspected. Fist, the question of the survey is problematic. In the survey, the video-game players are asked that what features they thought were most important in a video game. But there are many important factors deciding whether a video game is good or not, so if the person who constructed the survey asked that what features they thought will influent whether they buy a video game will be better. In addition, in evaluating the survey, we should also know the number of video-player survey and video-player responded and whether the video-player surveyed are representative. Lacking the information about this, it is impossible to assess the reliability of the survey.

Given that the survey is reliable and the Whirlwind has just introduced several such games with an extensive advertising campaign directed at people 10 to 25 years old, we still cannot be sure that the video-game players will buy its video games. Common sense tells that there are many factors, such as prize, quality, graphics, and band, which can influent whether the video-game players will buy a video game. So though the whirlwind's video games are good at lifelike graphics, the video-game players may not buy the Whirlwind's video games because the price of the games is too high. Also, yet people 10 to 25 years old most likely to play video games, but it is entirely possible that they cannot afford the price of the games having lifelike graphics for they require the most up-to-date computers. In short, we cannot be sure that the video-game players will buy the Whirlwind video games.

Finally, even if the people 10 to 25 years old can afford the games, we still can know that they will buy the Whirlwind’s games. Perhaps many video games have existed in the market and they are better than the Whirlwind’s games and have a lower price, or perhaps the player do not like Whirlwind’s games. Without ruling out those and these alternatives, the author cannot conclude that the sales of Whirlwind video games are likely to increase dramatically in the next few months.

In sum, the argument, which seems logical at first, has several flaws as discussed above. Before the conclusions are made about whether the sales of Whirlwind video games are about to  increase dramatically in the next few months, much more work are needed to be done.