argument59 一个小时的成果，呵呵，还是有点...

PrudenceUID: 2286952

59. The following appeared in an article in the health section of a newspaper.
“According to the available medical records, the six worst worldwide flu epidemics during the past 300 years occurred in 1729, 1830, 1918, 1957, 1968, and 1977. These were all years with heavy sunspot activity-that is, years when the Earth received significantly more solar energy than in normal years. People at particular risk for the flu should therefore avoid prolonged exposure to the Sun.”

Just based on a coincidence of two historical events-one for the six worst worldwide flu epidemics; the other for heavy sunspot activity, the author draws a series of unreasonable assumptions. I will discuss each of these in turn.

To begin with, it is presumptuous for author to draw any conclusion merely based on the available medical records. However, events in history which are without records do not mean they do not happen. Thus, it is entirely possible that there are more than six (7, 8, or even more) worst worldwide flu epidemics broke out in the past. Without out ruling out this possibility, the author fails to make the argument persuasive.

Even if the available records actually cover all, the assumption that it is heavy sunspot activity that leads to the six worst worldwide flu epidemics is arguable. Maybe the virus carried by migrating birds is attributable to the flu epidemics. And it is just a coincidence for these two events happening in the same years. In that case, we just can be persuaded that the author is one who likes to image.

Even though it is true that the six worst worldwide flu epidemics were caused by the heavy sunspot activity, it is still unreasonable for author to deduce that it is by the Earth receiving significantly more solar energy than normal years that heavy sunspot activity took effect. However, physics knowledge informs us that the heavy sunspot activity can lead to a series of effects, such as the Earth would receive significantly more solar energy than normal years as the author mentioned, the magnetic field of Earth irregularly varies, and so forth. So perhaps it is the latter one that leads to the outburst of these six worldwide flu epidemics rather than the former one. In order to argue this possibility, the author should provide more relevant information to substantiate his/her deduction.

Granted, the mechanism of heavy sunspot activity causing flu epidemics can be proved, the author fails to persuade me that people at particular risk for the flu should therefore avoid prolonged exposure to the sun. First, the latest outburst of worldwide flu is 30 years ago, and perhaps the advanced technology has changed this situation and people can expose to sunshine as long as they want. Moreover, medical commonsense informs us that due exposure to sunshine would be beneficial to people’s health. Accordingly, again, the author is failing to convince me this suggestion.

In conclusion, this argument is too specious to be acceptable. In order to support it, the author should provide sufficient evidence rather than a series of assumptions.

PrudenceUID: 2286952

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zsa1983UID: 2299564

Just based on a coincidence of two historical events-one for the six worst worldwide flu epidemics; the other for heavy sunspot activity, the author draws a series of unreasonable assumptions. I will discuss each of these in turn.To begin with, it is presumptuous for author to draw any conclusion merely based on the available medical records.前后不是转折关系。 However, events in history which are without records do not mean they do not happen. Thus, it is entirely possible that there are more than six (7, 8, or even more) worst worldwide flu epidemics broke out in the past. Without out ruling out this possibility, the author fails to make the argument persuasive.Even if the available records actually cover all, the assumption that it is heavy sunspot activity that leads to the six worst worldwide flu epidemics is arguable. Maybe the virus carried by migrating birds is attributable to the flu epidemics. And it is just a coincidence for these two events happening in the same years. In that case, we just can be persuaded that the author is one who likes to image.Even though it is true that the six worst worldwide flu epidemics were caused by the heavy sunspot activity, it is still unreasonable for author to deduce that it is by the Earth receiving significantly more solar energy than normal years that heavy sunspot activity took effect. However, （同上）physics knowledge informs us that the heavy sunspot activity can lead to a series of effects, such as the Earth would receive significantly more solar energy than normal years as the author mentioned, the magnetic field of Earth irregularly varies, and so forth. So perhaps it is the latter one that leads to the outburst of these six worldwide flu epidemics rather than the former one. In order to argue this possibility, the author should provide more relevant information to substantiate his/her deduction.
even though & so perhaps 有点冲突了，你感觉下

Granted, the mechanism of heavy sunspot activity causing flu epidemics can be proved, the author fails to persuade me that people at particular risk for the flu should therefore avoid prolonged exposure to the sun. First, the latest outburst of worldwide flu is 30 years ago, and perhaps the advanced technology has changed this situation and people can expose to sunshine as long as they want. Moreover, medical commonsense informs us that due exposure to sunshine would be beneficial to people’s health. Accordingly, again, the author is failing to convince me this suggestion.In conclusion, this argument is too specious to be acceptable. In order to support it, the author should provide sufficient evidence rather than a series of assumptions.

题目分析不错，观点论述也很好，就是一些小问题需要注意。文中已提到