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发表于 2007-5-18 02:12:50
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147. The following appeared in an editorial in a business magazine.
"Although the sales of Whirlwind video games have declined over the past two years, a recent survey of video-game players suggests that this sales trend is about to be reversed. The survey asked video-game players what features they thought were most important in a video game. According to the survey, players prefer games that provide lifelike graphics, which require the most up-to-date computers. Whirlwind has just introduced several such games with an extensive advertising campaign directed at people 10 to 25 years old, the age-group most likely to play video games. It follows, then, that the sales of Whirlwind video games are likely to increase dramatically in the next few months."
尽管Whirlwind游戏公司的游戏销量在过去两年中下降了,最近一次对于电子游戏玩家的调查显示这种销售趋势可能会逆转。该调查询问游戏玩家对于一个游戏来说他们所认为的最重要特征是什么。根据调查结果,玩家倾向于那些需要最先进的电脑的,具有活灵活现图象的游戏。Whirlwind刚刚面向10-25岁的人群开展了大力的广告活动来推广若干此类游戏,10-25岁是最喜欢玩游戏的年龄层。这说明Whirlwind公司的游戏销量将会在未来几个月中猛增。
1.喜欢不一定买; 游戏包括思想主题,设计,声效等众多因素
2.调查是否针对10-25;10-25最喜欢没数据,只是假设;买还需要购买力;通常10几岁要靠父母买,而父母要控制游戏
3.市场如何,是否萧条;是否有强力同类竞争;
In this argument, the author concludes that Whirlwind video games will have a good sales trend. At first glance, the author’s reasoning seems to be appealing, while clearly examining the author’s reasoning, we may find that it is unconvincing. The argument contains several facets that are questionable.
First of all, besides the lifelike graphics, there are also many other factors determining whether customers will buy the game. The lifelike graphics is thought to be the most important one by the customers but not the only one. For instance, a Role Play Game can never have a good sale if it can’t provide a colorful story. Therefore, to evaluate how well can it be sold, the company should also take other factor into consideration.
Secondly, the sample of the survey is vague. Given the company make the extensive advertising campaign directed at people 10 to 25 years old, the result of the survey will have little meanings if the people asked are mostly out of the range of 10 to 25 years old. Whether the age-group is mostly likely to play video games is only the hypothesis which has no evidence to support. Even if they are and the informants are in the right age-group, it can’t count. Carrying out the extensive advertisement makes the price go higher than it should be. As the argument mentioned, the video games require the most up-to-date computers which is another addition to the expenditure of playing game. 10-year-old or little older children have no economic incomings. So they have to ask their parents for the money, if they want to buy the game. Parents, however, willrestrain their children from playing games, or not advocate at least, let alone the high price. For youth around 25, their incomings can’t afford to buy the video game, either, because of the steep price. That is, not everyone who thinks the game is good will buy the game.
Thirdly, Whirlwind of course is not the only company that deals in selling video games. There are also many competent companies introducing the same style video game existing. Whirlwind has to share the market with the others or even be eclipsed by its opponent. Another question is that all of them are hard to increase their sales of the games if the whole market is during depression right now.
In summary, the conclusion reached in this argument is invalid and misleading. To strengthen the argument, more particular investigation and an analysis of details why the sales declined over the past two years should be carried out. |
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