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题目：ARGUMENT 38 - The following memo appeared in the newsletter of the West Meria Public Health Council. "An innovative treatment has come to our attention that promises to significantly reduce absenteeism in our schools and workplaces. A study reports that in nearby East Meria, where fish consumption is very high, people visit the doctor only once or twice per year for the treatment of colds. Clearly, eating a substantial amount of fish can prevent colds. Since colds are the reason most frequently given for absences from school and work, we recommend the daily use of Ichthaid, a nutritional supplement derived from fish oil, as a good way to prevent colds and lower absenteeism." 字数：481 用时：1:22:20 日期：2007-6-7 From the memo, author recommends that we should daily use of Ichthaid in order to prevent colds and lower absenteeism. To strengthen this conclusion, the author cites an example of that people in East Meria often eat fish, and then they have a colds only once or twice a year, which illustrates that eating fish frequently can help us keep healthy. Furthermore, the author considers that as long as people do not have colds, the absenteeism in our school and workplace will be lower. Finally, the author believe that the effects of using Ichthaid daily equal eating fish's. At first glance, it seems logically. A careful examination, however, would reveal how ridiculous it is. In the first place, this argument rests on a fabulous study reports that people in East Meria have fewer frequencies to visit the doctor, because they eat fish frequently. The information from study report in this argument is so limited to us that we cannot believe the result of it. No concrete statistics such as the number of fish people consumed every year, the number and ages of people they surveyed support this study. Is there a direct relationship between eating fish and preventing colds? Maybe the high fish consumptions due to that this area's fish is very famous, every year so many people come there to eat fish, however, the inhabitants do not always eat fish. On the other hand, the statistics of how many people participate in this study, if the number is not large enough, the result is doubtful. Furthermore, the age factor of people also is important to the study. If the study only investigates young people, old people and children never included, the result also cannot substantiate the statement, because the young men always healthier than other age groups of people. In the second place, this argument is based on a gratuitous assumption that the method of eating Ichthaid can treat or prevent colds. No scientific statistics and any examples in this argument show that it has same effect. Even if the report study is true, is the effect taken by fresh oil not other parts of a fish? Ok, if it is truly the fresh oil take effect, the Ichthaid will take the same effect? Are all people can take this nutritional supplement- Ichthaid? Therefore, author need to do a survey about Ichthaid 's practical effect. Last but not least, the argument is based on the fallacy of that the absenteeism due to colds. The absenteeism maybe caused by other reasons, for instance, accidents happen, the working customs of people in West Meria. Author should do a thorough investigation about the reasons of absenteeism. All in all, the idea that daily using Ichthaid can prevent colds and lower absenteeism is a hasty conclusion, which need author provide more evidences to support. Before that, I recommend that people need not take the Ichthaid. | 
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发表于 2007-6-7 16:20:14
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