Argument65 【METTLE小组】第三次作业 by happyhappypig

happyhappypigUID: 2342810

Argument65
The following appeared in a memo from the president of a chain of cheese stores located throughout the United States.

"For many years all the stores in our chain have stocked a wide variety of both domestic and imported cheeses. Last year, however, the five best-selling cheeses at our newest store were all domestic cheddar cheeses from Wisconsin. Furthermore, a recent survey by Cheeses of the World magazine indicates an increasing preference for domestic cheeses among its subscribers. Since our company can reduce expenses by limiting inventory, the best way to improve profits in all of our stores is to discontinue stocking many of our varieties of imported cheese and concentrate primarily on domestic cheeses."

Words: 588 Time: Unlimited
The above argument suggests concentrate stocking of domestic and discontinuing imported cheeses to gain more profits due to five best-selling domestic cheeses last year and the survey from a magazine. However, the ratiocination is neither cogent nor persuasive by falsely applying the local sales of one year to all the stores and overlooking other factors influencing the profits. Closer scrutiny would reveal several logical fallacies he commits as illustrated below.

First of all, the assertion that domesticate cheeses are more popular than imported cheeses is unconvincing. The only evidence cited are the sales of five domesticate cheeses last year without overall sales comparison. Perhaps the gains from selling the imported cheeses are of similar level as that from domesticate cheeses. In addition, myriads of variable should be taken into consideration upon the sales of the cheeses, such as the tastes, the discount, the advertisement, etc. It is possible that the prices of the domesticate cheeses are on average much lower than the imported cheeses for since they don’t have the additional importing taxes. Or perhaps the company designs extensive advertisement campaign nationwide and gives great discount on these domesticate cheeses. Further more, it is also likely that only local residents where the new store is situated prefer the domesticate cheeses whereas customers elsewhere don’t have such significant preference. Either of these scenarios, if true, would cause serious doubt to the conclusion about the popularity of the domesticate cheeses.

Secondly, whether the survey from the magazine is representative or applicable to the US company is open to doubt. Without information about the nationalities or the occupations of people who respond, hardly can we make any prediction upon the cheeses sales trends. If most of the respondents are not from the US, the survey actually indicates the preference of “imported cheeses” from the view of the US company. Even if most of the subscribers are from the US, the increasing preference of imported cheeses may concurrent with that of domesticate cheese just simply because people love and eat cheeses more now. Or perhaps people responds are mainly cooks or nutrients who pay more attention about the composition and the tastes of the cheeses whereas the multitudes of the customers concern more about the prices or the discounts. And people responses may also reflect the recent fashion upon domesticate cheeses, whether this trend is applicable to all the stores or whether it would last long needs further discussion.

Moreover, whether this strategy can bring more profits and whether the company should put domesticate cheeses in the first priority in all its stores nationwide needs further investigation. No evidence is provided about the inventory costs and its relation with the profits. If the stocks of cheeses don’t take much room with affordable rent, the discontinue stocking of imported cheeses will make no difference. The argument is also weaken by the fact that the arguer neglect other costs such as electric charge, the maintenance and storage of cheeses, the transportation fees and labor costs, etc, all of which would contribute to the profits of a store. Further, the stores located at metropolitans with different backgrounds of residents may need a large variety of cheeses, and customers may even complain for lack diversity.

Taken together, the argument is not well reasoned as it stands and renders it lacks credibility. Without providing hidden reasons of the sales trends last year, detail information about the survey of the magazine or factors related to the costs of a store, the augur’s suggestion cannot be adopted.

I revised it myself one more time to check spelliing errors and realized that there are so many words~~~~~~~:funk:

[ 本帖最后由 happyhappypig 于 2007-6-15 15:58 编辑 ]

最後の使徒UID: 2257608

The above argument suggests concentrate stocking of domestic and discontinuing imported cheeses to gain more profits due to five best-selling domestic cheeses last (缩得太短了会造成信息丢失, 这两天不如单写个句子来说) year and the (第一次出现的名词前加不定惯词) survey from a magazine. However, the ratiocination is neither cogent nor persuasive by falsely applying the local sales of one year to all the stores and overlooking other factors influencing the profits. Closer scrutiny would reveal several logical fallacies he commits as illustrated below.

First of all, the assertion that domesticate cheeses are more popular than imported cheeses is unconvincing.(作者没有直接提出这个assertion, 这里直白攻击就显得不妥, 可以说作者试图用两个论据来证明国产奶酪更受欢迎) The only evidence cited are the sales of five domesticate cheeses last year without overall sales comparison.(那个SURVEY也是用来证明国产奶酪更受欢迎的, 你这里可能想说的是国产奶酪卖得好, high sales和popular不是一回事, 前者是后者的结果, 后者是前者的必要条件, 而不是充分条件) Perhaps the gains from selling the imported cheeses are of similar level as that from domesticate cheeses.(这个可能性来的太没头没尾了, 你是要证明什么? 还没说前面的论据怎么不充足就转入了它因攻击, 这里的论证存在断点) In addition, myriads of variable should be taken into consideration upon the sales of the cheeses, such as the tastes, the discount, the advertisement, etc.(这个跟卖不卖有必然联系么? 如果是国产的奶酪销量确实好的话, 这些原因有没有作用都不重要, 卖的好说明有市场, 只要再有盈利就可以销售了, 这些它因即使成立对你削弱作者的论证也没任何好处) It is possible that the prices of the domesticate cheeses are on average much lower than the imported cheeses for since they don’t have the additional importing taxes. Or perhaps the company designs extensive advertisement campaign nationwide and gives great discount on these domesticate cheeses.(so? 如果成本低的话, 商店多卖国产货不是还是个很好的选择么?) Further more, it is also likely that only local residents where the new store is situated prefer the domesticate cheeses whereas customers elsewhere don’t have such significant preference.(why?) Either of these scenarios, if true, would cause serious doubt to the conclusion about the popularity of the domesticate cheeses. (这段看下来感觉你最大的问题是不知道自己要论证的是什么, 我想你这里应该是在攻击那个销量的论据, 这时要注意作者列出这个论据不是为了证明国产奶酪好吃或者国产奶酪受欢迎, 而是要证明国产奶酪好卖, 虽然前两个可能是后一个的原因, 但这种因果并不必然, 即使作者是想说明国产奶酪好吃或者受欢迎, 他的逻辑也是 国产奶酪受欢迎->国产奶酪卖的好->所以我们应该卖国产奶酪. 你只在前一个因果上做文章, 而作者其实没直接说过第一个事实, 所以你的攻击也就无效化了. 正如你所说, 奶酪卖的好还有其它很多原因, 比如广告, 比如关税, 比如成本, 不管哪个造成奶酪卖的好, 只要能卖的好商店就有足够的理由去卖它, 除非国产奶酪都是降本销售卖的好赚的少---这才是作者的问题所在)

Secondly, whether the survey from the magazine is representative or applicable to the US company is open to doubt. Without information about thenationalities or the occupations of people who respond, hardly can we make any prediction upon the cheeses sales trends. If most of the respondents are not from the US, the survey actually indicates the preference of “imported cheeses” from the view of the US company. (这里的攻击也显得没头, 为什么要怀疑国籍问题? 应该先说不知道杂志的发行范围, 然后再说SURVEY的范围, 不然这个疑问提出就显得没有依据, 很唐突)Even if most of the subscribers are from the US, the increasing preference of imported cheeses may concurrent with that of domesticate cheese just simply because people love and eat cheeses more now.(这里的表达也不精确, 应该说明没有给出对进口奶酪的喜好, 不然即使人们只是因为喜欢奶酪多了也能使国产奶酪销量上升, 同样可以作为商店多卖国产奶酪的依据) Or perhaps people responds are mainly cooks or nutrients who pay more attention about the composition and the tastes of the cheeses whereas the multitudes of the customers concern more about the prices or the discounts.(同上段的点评) And people responses may also reflect the recent fashion upon domesticate cheeses, whether this trend is applicable to all the stores or whether it would last long needs further discussion. (LZ的字数虽然多, 但论证深度却不够, 总是东一枪西一枪, 哪个也不说到底把作者抽到爽, 这样还不如集中精力攻一两种可能性)

Moreover, whether this strategy can bring more profits and whether the company should put domesticate cheeses in the first priority in all its stores nationwide needs further investigation. No evidence is provided about the inventory costs and its relation with the profits.(终于说到成本问题了, 这里最好先让步前两点能证明国产奶酪销路确实比较好) If the stocks of cheeses don’t take much room with affordable rent, the discontinue stocking of imported cheeses will make no difference. The argument is also weaken by the fact that the arguer neglect other costs such as electric charge, the maintenance and storage of cheeses, the transportation fees and labor costs, etc, all of which would contribute to the profits of a store.(笼统的小列举是论证的有效手段, 但之后应该给出一到两点specific的论证, 说明其中的某项或者某几项因素是怎么作用的, 否则这里的信息量难以make sense) Further, the stores located at metropolitans with different backgrounds of residents may need a large variety of cheeses, and customers may even complain for lack diversity.(so?)

Taken together, the argument is not well reasoned as it stands and renders it lacks credibility. Without providing hidden reasons of the sales trends last year, detail information about the survey of the magazine or factors related to the costs of a store, the augur’s suggestion cannot be adopted.

总评:
LZ的文章还是相当不错的, 特别是思路很开阔, 能想出很多有说服力的论据
本文在论证上的问题是第一点方向有误, 另外就论证不够到位, 不能直接指向作者的中心论点, 很多攻击都是没头没尾, 有意识流的风格
结构上可以加强下全文的联系, 不要一直是moreover, furthermore, secondly这种没有信息量的连接词, 适当的even grant, even if, assuming, however会让你的文章连贯很多
加油~

happyhappypigUID: 2342810

Words: 551

In the above argument, the arguer suggests discontinue stocking imported cheeses and concentrating on domesticate cheeses to gain profits. To substantiate this assertion, he cites the example of five best-selling domesticate cheeses and the survey from a magazine. However, closer scrutiny would reveal several logical fallacies he commits as illustrated below.

To begin with, whether the sale trend of the domesticate cheeses in the newest stores is applicable to all its stores is open to doubt. Myriads of variables should be taken into consideration upon the sales of cheeses such as prices, tastes, advertisements, etc. It is possible that the adorable star in its advertisement comes from the place where the newest store in situated, therefore best-selling cheeses may reflect the fancy of the star and the successful promotion. It also might be the case that the newest store is located in or near Wisconsin, where most people like their traditional domesticate cheeses, whereas people elsewhere don’t have such significant preference. Without providing the related information from the above aspects, the conclusion to put the sales of domesticate cheeses in the priority in all its stores is too hasty.

Secondly, even if we concede that domesticate cheeses sales trend is nationwide, whether this trend last year can last long is unwarranted. The sales last year can only reflect people’s choices about cheeses in the past, whether people are satisfied with those domesticate cheeses or whether they would continue buying those cheeses are not disclosed. Perhaps having eaten the similar tastes of cheeses for a whole year, cooks of the restaurants or housewives of the family may want to change to some other tastes to stimulate the appetites. Although a survey from cheeses magazine is provided, yet nothing is provided upon the distribution pattern of the magazine, whether it is mainly circulated in the US or have readers among the world, or the information related to the respondents, what is the percentage of the replying subscribers. It is highly likely that due to the inconvenience design of the questionnaire, such as no stamp attached or easy fragile paper, only a small number of subscribers replied, which renders the survey unrepresentative. Unless given more information to indicate peoples insisting fever upon domesticate cheeses, hardly can we make any prediction upon the future sales of domesticate cheeses.

Moreover, even assuming large demand of domesticate cheeses from the market, whether the strategy can bring more profits to the company needs further investigation. There are many influencing factors determines the payoff of a cheese company such as the maintenance and storage of cheeses, the transportation fees, labor costs, competitions and customers demands, etc. If the margin from domesticate cheeses per unit is small, the company have to sale a large amount of cheeses to gain profits among untold special domesticate cheese stores locally. And the stores located at metropolitans with different backgrounds of residents may need a large variety of cheeses, with customers complaining about lack of diversity and turning to other brands.

Taken together, the above argument is not well reasoned as it stands and renders it lacks credibility. Without discussion about the sales trends of the domesticate cheeses in recent years, detail information about the survey of the magazine or factors contribute to the profit of a store, the augur’s suggestion cannot be adopted.

多谢斑斑仔细修改，受益良多，改了一下，呵呵

一米八四UID: 2317911

哇 版主都上阵了 ...给我很大压力...

strokes7UID: 2262256

:rolleyes:
In the above argument, the arguer suggests discontinue stocking imported cheeses and concentrating on domesticate cheeses to gain profits. To substantiate this assertion, he cites the example of five best-selling domesticate cheeses and the survey from a magazine. (其实我还是觉得这个地方没必要这么写，因为并没有必要去重述原题啊，我们只需要把几个重点点到即可)However, closer scrutiny would reveal several logical fallacies he commits as illustrated below.

To begin with, whether the sale trend of the domesticate cheeses in the newest stores is applicable to all its stores is open to doubt. Myriads of variables should be taken into consideration upon the sales of cheeses such as prices, tastes, advertisements, etc. It is possible that the adorable star in its advertisement comes from the place where the newest store in situated, therefore best-selling cheeses may reflect the fancy of the star and the successful promotion.(我想这个地方你是不是可以说的更直白些，直接说是一些促销降价活动导致了国内品牌的特卖，当然也许是我水平有限，对你写的这些不能完全理解) It also might be the case that the newest store is located in or near Wisconsin, where most people like their traditional domesticate cheeses, whereas people elsewhere don’t have such significant preference.（Lastangel也给我批了，也说了我和你同样的问题：在列出一系列其他可能后没有进行更深刻的批驳，但我觉得在你这篇重写的文章里还是没有对这点进行改进，我也比较困惑，也许我们可以就此讨论一下） Without providing the related information from the above aspects, the conclusion to put the sales of domesticate cheeses in the priority in all its stores is too hasty.

Secondly, even if we concede that domesticate cheeses sales trend is nationwide, whether this trend last year can last long is unwarranted. The sales last year can only reflect people’s choices about cheeses in the past, whether people are satisfied with those domesticate cheeses or whether they would continue buying those cheeses are not disclosed. Perhaps having eaten the similar tastes of cheeses for a whole year, cooks of the restaurants or housewives of the family may want to change to some other tastes to stimulate the appetites. （我觉得还是应该销售结果放一段，survey放一段，因为这在原文中也是两个并列的论据，我们不能主观的将其分成两部分）Although a survey from cheeses magazine is provided, yet nothing is provided upon the distribution pattern of the magazine, whether it is mainly circulated in the US or have readers among the world, or the information related to the respondents, what is the percentage of the replying subscribers. It is highly likely that due to the inconvenience design of the questionnaire, such as no stamp attached or easy fragile paper, only a small number of subscribers replied, which renders the survey unrepresentative. Unless given more information to indicate peoples insisting fever upon domesticate cheeses, hardly can we make any prediction upon the future sales of domesticate cheeses.（由于你把这两部分挤在一起，导致Survey的攻击展开的很不充分，其实对于这段前半部分的攻击大可不必）

Moreover, even assuming large demand of domesticate cheeses from the market, whether the strategy can bring more profits to the company needs further investigation. There are many influencing factors determines the payoff of a cheese company such as the maintenance and storage of cheeses, the transportation fees, labor costs, competitions and customers demands, etc. If the margin from domesticate cheeses per unit is small, the company have to sale a large amount of cheeses to gain profits among untold special domesticate cheese stores locally. And the stores located at metropolitans with different backgrounds of residents may need a large variety of cheeses, with customers complaining about lack of diversity and turning to other brands.（这段总看着像没写完的，应该再有一个收尾的句子）

Taken together, the above argument is not well reasoned as it stands and renders it lacks credibility. Without discussion about the sales trends of the domesticate cheeses in recent years, detail information about the survey of the magazine or factors contribute to the profit of a store, the augur’s suggestion cannot be adopted.


总体来说我们的文章形式都相对固定了，没有太大问题。但是还有两点需要讨论就是：1，开头到底怎么好？ 2，lastangel所说的单纯的列举其他可能性不够，应该再深入一步论证。对于这点我还没有理解好。我想再去看看官方范文以及Imong的帖子，回来我们一起讨论一下

[ 本帖最后由 strokes7 于 2007-6-19 01:19 编辑 ]