Argument147 【天道酬勤作文互改小组】第一次作业------请拍砖

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Argument147 【0710G 天道酬勤作文互改小组】第一次作业------请拍砖


147The following appeared in an editorial in a business magazine.

"Although the sales of Whirlwind video games have declined over the past two years, a recent survey of video-game players suggests that this sales trend is about to be reversed. The survey asked video-game players what features they thought were most important in a video game. According to the survey, players prefer games that provide lifelike graphics, which require the most up-to-date computers. Whirlwind has just introduced several such games with an extensive advertising campaign directed at people 10 to 25 years old, the age-group most likely to play video games. It follows, then, that the sales of Whirlwind video games are likely to increase dramatically in the next few months."


提纲：
1.       调查的可靠性被质疑：谁做的调查，调查的具体方式如何，调查的样本大小等等
2.       即使调查可靠，调查结果也不具有普遍性：调查表明玩家倾向于生活模拟游戏，而这些游戏需要即时升级的电脑。这些玩家是不是大多都是女生？那男生群体呢？升级电脑需要大量的金钱，有人会为了一款游戏而这样吗？
3.       推荐的游戏是广告活动的产物，广告做得好并不代表销量好，且面向群体为10到25岁，这个范围太宽，10岁的玩家的喜好和25岁的玩家的喜好不可能完全一致

作文：
In this argument, the arguer reaches the conclusion that the sales of Whirlwind(WW) video games will be best-selling in the next few months. The arguer cites the result of a survey as an example in support of this prediction. At first glance, the argument appears to be somehow plausible, while a close examination will reveal how groundless it is.

First, the reliability of the survey about video-game players is suspected, it can not make itself be convinced. The arguer failed to point out who do the survey, how to carry out the survey and how many samples are involved in this survey. It is possible the survey is carried by WW, then it is surely to represent the WW’s benefit. Maybe the survey only is taken in ten people, while ten people can not stand for all of the video-game players. Besides this, the method of the survey also has some flaws. The survey asked players "what features they thought were most important in a video game", and this topic is so blurred for game players. Different players have different desire in different domain. It is probably someone thinks the quality of video picture is the most important item, while in the survey, it does not have this item; or someone thinks both picture quality and dynamic speed are most important, while in the survey, they can only choice one item. The arguer can not reach the conclusion base on such incredible data.

Even though the survey is reliable, the result of the survey is not reasonable. The result points out players prefer lifelike games which need up-to-date computers. It is likely most of those game players are woman, and they can not represent all of the players including both women and men. In addition, one will not change their computer hardware only because of one game in normal situation; the reason is hardware changing needs much money. It is similar that one won't change his or her room only because the color of the wall. Without enough evidence, the arguer’s prediction is not convinced.

Moreover, the arguer points out that some such games is introduced for some players with an advertising campaign. Advertisement can not make sure the sales statues. It is an advertising campaign; it can not express game players’ desire correctly. What is more, 10 to 25 years old is so wide that not every stage players like the same style game. Maybe 10 years players like games which are beneficial to their intelligence improvement, while 25 years players like fighting games. It is hardly to get the result which arguer hold.

Base on above analyze, the WW think its sale will be more and more is not very convinced. In order to make it more reasonable, the arguer needs to supply more evidence to pursue all of the game players.

[ 本帖最后由 xujing8110 于 2007-6-25 15:07 编辑 ]