Argument147 [Victors小组]coraone 第2天暑假作业,有拍必回

coraoneUID: 2233021

TOPIC: ARGUMENT147 - The following appeared in an editorial in a business magazine.

"Although the sales of Whirlwind video games have declined over the past two years, a recent survey of video-game players suggests that this sales trend is about to be reversed. The survey asked video-game players what features they thought were most important in a video game. According to the survey, players prefer games that provide lifelike graphics, which require the most up-to-date computers. Whirlwind has just introduced several such games with an extensive advertising campaign directed at people 10 to 25 years old, the age-group most likely to play video games. It follows, then, that the sales of Whirlwind video games are likely to increase dramatically in the next few months."
WORDS:597          TIME: 上午 12:30:00          DATE: 2007-7-2

1.错误因果：W之前的销量下降是由于人们对其游戏不喜欢
1）可能人们选择去玩网络游戏，或则因为盗版，使得整个游戏产业萧条
2）盗版原因
2.即使人们原来对W的游戏不感兴趣，错误因果，现在10-25岁人群会购买其游戏
1）总体的倾向不反映10-25岁人群也喜欢玩这类游戏
2）喜欢玩但是电脑配置不行
3.即使这个游戏的销量上去了，不能推出W公司的游戏销量会都上升
1）一开始好卖不等于一直都好卖，可能由于推出以后玩家的评价不好，1一个月后销售就下降了(这个没写到文中去)
2）一个游戏不反映其他游戏，可能其他的下降

Merely based on unfounded assumptions and dubious evidence, the author draws a conclusion that the sales of Whirlwind (W) video games are about to soar in the next few months. To corroborate the conclusion, the author spotlight that W has just introduced several games that provide lifelike graphics and require the most up-to-date computers at the people who are the age-groups most likely to play video games. The reasoning seems superficial plausible at first glance, but scrutiny reveal several underlying logical flaws in this argument.

First and foremost, the author falsely draw a causal relationship from the people’s fancy toward W video games to the decreasing sales. The author provides no confirmation to validate this deduction. It is entirely possible that increasing numbers of people choose to play online games instead of the video games, so that the sales of the whole video games industries has declined in the past two years, so are the W video games. Or perhaps, the illegal sales of copies of W video games might also have significant impact on the sales of W’s productions. Thus, with these alternatives failed to clean up, the author’s assertion cannot convince me that the advertising campaign will contribute to hold back this decreasing sales trend.

In my next analysis, even assuming that the lacking interest of the people to W video games bring on the decline in sales over the past two year, the author makes a hasty generalization that the advertising campaign can attract more 10 to 25 years old people to purchase W video games. What is true of a group as a whole is not necessarily true of any individual within that group. The possibility cannot be excluded that the 10 to 25 years old people are not interested in this kind of games at all because they attract more importance to the content of the games but not the image. On the other hand, even through the 10 to 25 years old people are fond of this kind of games as the survey indicates, it is equal possible that they cannot afford the most up-to-date computers to meet the demand of playing this kind of games. We should not neglect that this group of people are almost students, paying too much money is obviously beyond their capability. Accordingly, if these possibilities are true, the author's assertion will be questionable.

In the final analyzing, even through the 10 to 25 years old people will purchase more W video games which are introduced in the advertising campaign, the author still draw a hasty conclusion that the sales of Whirlwind video games are likely to increase dramatically in the next few months. One case in point is rarely sufficient to establish a general conclusion. Because there are many differences between the 10 to 25 years old people and other age-groups, the increasing purchase cannot be analogized to all age-groups. Also, the sales of certain games cannot be analogized to every kind of games, so that no one can guarantee that the sales of W video games besides the introduced games would also rocket. In this sense, the author cannot make me convince with the conclusion.

To sum up, the reasoning of this argument is well presented but not well reasoned. To better strengthen and fortify the argument, the author need to solve all these logical imperfections mentioned above; then look for a more persuasive reasoning line to present the certification of the anticipation of the ascending sales of W video games. At least, lay more efficient and effective evidence to up hold his deduction.

限时再次失败-.-，严重失败，写完第一遍让我很崩溃-.-b，第一遍写的第一段都有很明显的逻辑错误，我自己一读发现连自己都说服不了了。-____-
我倒是觉得我的逻辑不是太大问题了，我想问题的深度不比大多数人差，但是思维的速度，还有就是这个英语表达的水平，让我实在是很郁闷。很后悔前两年没有好好学英语，要不是准备G，连那个无聊的六级都过不了-.-b。。
累了，这篇文章写加修改花了我差不多两个小时，心灵狠狠地打击了一边,时间不多了，我要坚持，我要拿5分