Argument117 【0710G-小猪快跑小组】第1次作业 1.0 By Ashun

aashunUID: 2362747

Argument117 【0710G-小猪快跑小组】第1次作业 1.0 By Ashun

117. The following is a memo from the business manager of Valu-Mart stores.
"Over 70 percent of the respondents to a recent survey reported that they are required to take more work home with them from the workplace than they were in the past. Since Valu-Mart has not seen impressive sales in its office-supply departments in the past, we should take advantage of this work-at-home trend by increasing at all Valu-Mart stores the stock of home office machines such as printers, small copy machines, paper shredders, and fax machines. We will also increase stock of office supplies such as paper, pens, and staplers. With these changes, our office-supply departments will become the most profitable component of our stores."

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TIME: 0.5h (prepare) +1h (write) +0.5h (revise) / no time limit
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Outline:
1.对survey的质疑
2.对“带工作回家”和“设备销量”的关系
3.将“提高销量”等同于“提高利润”
4.忽略其它部门和商店的竞争
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In the argument, the assertion, which the author claims that the office-supply department of Valu-Mart (VM) store should increase the stock of home office supplies and become the most profitable component of stores, is unfounded and cannot be accepted under the close examination and scrutiny, though the author cites a recent survey to substantiate the conclusion. At the first glance, the argument seems to be plausible and reasonable; on the second thought, however, as a matter of fact it is not persuasive as it stands.

Firstly, the author's conclusion bases on a questionable survey, which is quoted in the argument, however, we find no evidence of the survey procedure for random sample, and have good reasons to doubt whether the sample is representative enough and the sample size is suitable to reflect the whole condition. How many people are chosen to the survey? And how many people do respond the survey at last? How about the job, the position or rank, the gender, the age of the sample? Without the specific data and information, it is hard and possible for us to accept the unconvinced survey for its reliability. Moreover, the survey tells us little about when they were required to take more work home than in the past and how long the work-at-home trend will last. Absence of the key information, the author's deduction will be seriously weakened.

Secondly, the author failed to convince us that the work-at-home trend will result in the increasing of purchase the home office machines. Even if the survey was acceptable, because we cannot ignore that the generalization drawn might not apply to most people. In fact, we do not know those people who are in the work-at-home trend are whether really need to buy the home office machines or not. The increasing of work in home does not guarantee the increasing of the home office machines. Maybe some people already have the home office machines; or maybe some work in home does not need to use the home office machines and so on.

Thirdly, the author makes a hasty generalization that with increasing of the sales, the profits will concurrently rise in the office-supply department. The author might oversimplify and fail to take into account other factors concerning to the profit. As we know, profit is chiefly influenced by a sort of combination of aspects like the importing price, exporting price, and the management. Maybe the store has so many customers that the products sell well, but if the importing price suddenly increased by 50%, the profits definitely will reduce dramatically and the office-supply department will lose lots of profits.

Finally, the author fails to consider the competition from other department and other stores. Maybe other departments of VM store are also trying certain ways to enhance the profits and maybe the person who needs the home office machines would like to purchase them in other stores rather than in VM stores. If so, even stocking the home office machines could really benefit to the office-supply department, but the office-supply department and V-M store is not the fortunate one.

To sum up, based on what discussed and analyzed above, it is clearly that the argument is invalid and misleading, and the conclusion reached in the argument is too presumptuous and hasty to be accepted. In order to make the conclusion more convincing, the author should gather more scientific and specific data, and provide more efficiency and receivable evidence to support the conclusion.



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Argument200  
200Statistics collected from dentists indicate that three times more men than women faint while visiting the dentist. This evidence suggests that men are more likely to be distressed about having dental work done than women are. Thus, dentists who advertise to attract patients should target the male consumer and emphasize both the effectiveness of their anesthetic techniques and the sensitivity of their staff to nervous or suffering patients.
1.没有提供男女病人的各自基数，也许基数上男病人比女病人多。
2.男病人昏倒的原因有多种，不一定是因为麻醉技术or护理人员的不敏感。
3.新广告手段只故意吸引男病人，反而可能会丧失女病人这个消费群体。

【感想小结】
1.很麻烦，很累，要注意平时积累，尤其是常用例子的整理和收集；
2.提纲容易写，干货不容易填；
3.上gt网速带慢，提交作业居然耗费我接近1h，ft！







[ 本帖最后由 aashun 于 2007-7-21 22:24 编辑 ]

jojogaotianUID: 2189450

抱歉啊～
因为断网了 只能抽空上来看看
issue已经改好了
argument我会尽快改的
然后我会贴上来的冏

aashunUID: 2362747

hehe

看到了

提个建议 能否把修改后的字体改小点？ 我看你给我的修改稿的时候，被吓到了~~ 字体非常大

囧

Shania.33UID: 2363464

In the argument, the assertion, which the author claims that the office-supply department of Valu-Mart (VM) store should increase the stock of home office supplies and become the most profitable component of stores, is unfounded and cannot be accepted under the close examination and scrutiny, though the author cites a recent survey to substantiate the conclusion. At the first glance, the argument seems to be plausible and reasonable（个人感觉写一个就够了，特别考试时间紧张的时候：）; on the second thought, however（删除，和后面的感觉重复，也避免文中的重复）, as a matter of fact it is not persuasive as it stands.

Firstly, the author's conclusion bases on a questionable survey, which is quoted in the argument, however, we find no evidence of the survey procedure for random sample, and have good reasons to doubt whether the sample is representative enough and the sample size is suitable to reflect the whole condition. How many people are chosen to the survey? And how many people do respond the survey at last? How about the job, the position or rank, the gender, the age of the sample? Without the specific data and information, it is hard and possible for us to accept the unconvinced survey for its reliability. Moreover, the survey tells us little about when they were required to take more work home than in the past and how long the work-at-home trend will last. Absence of the key information, the author's deduction will be seriously weakened.

Secondly, the author failed to convince us that the work-at-home trend will result in the increasing of purchase the home office machines. Even if the survey was acceptable, because we cannot ignore that the generalization drawn might not apply to most people.（假设用的好！） In fact, we do not know those people who are in the work-at-home trend are whether really need to buy the home office machines or not. The increasing of work in home does not guarantee the increasing of the home office machines. Maybe some people already have the home office machines; or maybe some work in home does not need to use the home office machines and so on.

Thirdly, the author makes a hasty generalization that with increasing of the sales, the profits will concurrently rise in the office-supply department.（TS归纳的不错） The author might oversimplify and fail to take into account other factors concerning to the profit. As we know, profit is chiefly influenced by a sort of combination of aspects like the importing price, exporting price, and the management. Maybe the store has so many customers that the products sell well, but if the importing price suddenly increased by 50%, the profits definitely will reduce dramatically and the office-supply department will lose lots of profits.

Finally, the author fails to consider the competition from other department and other stores. Maybe other departments of VM store are also trying certain ways to enhance the profits and maybe the person who needs the home office machines would like to purchase them in other stores rather than in VM stores. If so, even stocking the home office machines could really benefit to the office-supply department, but the office-supply department and V-M store is not the fortunate one.

To sum up, based on what discussed and analyzed above, it is clearly that the argument is invalid and misleading, and the conclusion reached in the argument is too presumptuous and hasty to be accepted. In order to make the conclusion more convincing, the author should gather more scientific and specific data, and provide more efficiency and receivable evidence to support the conclusion.

Shania.33UID: 2363464

AASHUN很认真的写了四段逻辑攻击点，很充足，论证的也很不错。

但是有几点小建议：

1、考试时可能没有那么多时间写这么多的字，那么，就需要把最重要的论证往前面放。

2、所以，我建议你的顺序可以这样，把以偏概全，错误推理，错误因果的放前面一段二段先写。这些逻辑点比较重要。

3、像数据模糊这样的比较简单的错误，也就是文章的第一段，可以放在最后一段，或者和第三段结合起来写。

[ 本帖最后由 Shania.33 于 2007-7-19 00:07 编辑 ]

aashunUID: 2362747

en

第一次写 没有强行控制时间 而是写的很放松 没有什么经验 借鉴了很多别人的素材和观点

ps 你给的建议不错~ 尤其是第三个，数据模糊我先前还以为是最重要的驳斥点，现在仔细想想，是最容易发现的问题，那么应该放在最后！

thx

jojogaotianUID: 2189450

In the argument, the assertion, which the author claims that the office-supply department of Valu-Mart (VM) store should increase the stock of home office supplies and become the most profitable component of stores, is unfounded and cannot be accepted under the close examination and scrutiny, though the author cites a recent survey to substantiate the conclusion.（第一句好长，不够简洁明了啊个人感觉） At the first glance, the argument seems to be plausible and reasonable; on the second thought, however, as a matter of fact it is not persuasive as it stands.Firstly, the author's conclusion bases on a questionable survey, which is quoted in the argument, however, we find no evidence of the survey procedure for random sample, and have good reasons to doubt whether the sample is representative enough and the sample size is suitable to reflect the whole condition. How many people are chosen to the survey? And how many people do respond the survey at last? How about the job, the position or rank, the gender, the age of the sample? Without the specific data and information, it is hard and impossible for us to accept the unconvinced survey for its reliability. Moreover, the survey tells us little about when they were required to take more work home than in the past and how long the work-at-home trend will last. Absence of the key information, the author's deduction will be seriously weakened.Secondly, the author failed to convince us that the work-at-home trend will result in the increasing of purchase the home office machines. Even if the survey was acceptable, because we cannot ignore that the generalization drawn might not apply to most people. In fact, we do not know those people who are in the work-at-home trend are whether really need to buy the home office machines or not. The increasing of work in home does not guarantee the increasing of the home office machines. Maybe some people already have the home office machines; or maybe some work in home does not need to use the home office machines and so on.Thirdly, the author makes a hasty generalization that with increasing of the sales, the profits will concurrently rise in the office-supply department. The author might oversimplify and fail to take into account other factors concerning to the profit. As we know, profit is chiefly influenced by a sort of combination of aspects like the importing price, exporting price, （这里我翻译的是进口价格和出口价格，lz在这里的意思应该是进货价和出货价吧。。。ps：我是学经济的）and the management. Maybe the store has so many customers that the products sell well, but if the importing price suddenly increased by 50%, the profits definitely will reduce dramatically and the office-supply department will lose lots of profits.Finally, the author fails to consider the competition from other department and other stores. Maybe other departments of VM store are also trying certain ways to enhance the profits and maybe the person who needs the home office machines would like to purchase them in other stores rather than in VM stores. If so, even stocking the home office machines could rarely benefit tothe office-supply department, but the office-supply department and V-M store is not the fortunate one. To sum up, based on what discussed and analyzed above, it is clearly that the argument is invalid and misleading, and the conclusion reached in the argument is too presumptuous and hasty to be accepted. In order to make the conclusion more convincing, the author should gather more scientific and specific data, and provide more efficiency and receivable evidence to support the conclusion.写的不错，赞一个！模板的格式不是很明显~p.s..:改的晚了抱歉抱歉

aashunUID: 2362747

hehe 谢谢你的修改~~
给你个建议~
修改的时候 字不要太大了 ：）