Argument226 我的第四周第四次小组作业 请大家拍砖

豌豆毛毛虫UID: 2289272

TOPIC: ARGUMENT226 - The following appeared as part of a memo from the manager of an automobile manufacturing company.

"Because the demand for our automobiles is expected to increase dramatically, we need to open a new manufacturing plant as soon as possible in order to continue to thrive. Our marketing projections indicate that 80 million people will want to buy our automobiles, yet our existing plant can only produce 40 million automobiles. The new plant can be opened on a part-time basis, with workers from our existing site rotating responsibilities, until an operational staff can be trained. A major airplane manufacturer was extremely successful using this part-time rotating strategy when it opened its new plant five years ago."
WORDS: 440          TIME: 00:30:00          DATE: 2007-7-21 21:58:43

In this argument, the conclusion is that a new manufacturing plant should be opend as soon as possible in order to meet the increasing grow of the demand for automobiles of the company in which the arguer works. His conclusion is groundless because of his gratuitous assumption that their marketing projections indicate that eighty million people will want to buy their automobiles. What is more, he cites a successful example as his evidence to support his claim. If having a scrutiny, we will find that this argument is problematic for several reasons.

In the first place, the arguer reaches a conclusion that the demand for automobiles in his company is expected to increase dramatically, which simplies based on their marketing projections which indicate that eighty million people will want to buy their automobiles. It seems a large number of future-customers as the number of people who want to buy their automobiles are eighty millions, but there is no clear information about when these eighty millions people will really buy their cars, if some of them want cars in ten years or five years, this automobile manufacturing company do not have to open a new manufacturing plants to produce more automobiles. They have violate the rule of demond and supply, if they produce too many automobiles, and thus they have to put the unsold automobiles into storage, which will certainly influence their company, not to mention their company can continue to thrive.   

In the second place, the arguer commites a fallacy of false analogy, because he thinks the successful example of a major airplane five years ago can be studied and imitated. Granted that their automobile manufacturing company can make money by building a new manufacturing plants and produce more automobiles, whether the way to run this new plant on a part-time basis can be successful is open to doubt. The success of that major airplane manufacturer by using similar part-time rotating strategy may reoccur in the field of automobile manufacturing companies. The procedures to manufacture and assemble automobiles and airplanes, the shifts of workers, and management strategies may be different, just simply applying the successful way in airplane manurfacturing to automobile manufacturing is of great stake.

In sum, this argument is not as persuasive as it would be, if the arguer would provide clear information that within how many years these eighty million future-customers want to buy their automobiles, and he have to produce more evidence concerning the part-time rotating strategy, to prove such a strategy can be safely used in their company. Also useful would any information on the similarities between the airplane manufacturer and their automobile manufacturing company.

dg336688UID: 2349841

In this argument, the conclusion is that a new manufacturing plant should be opend as soon as possible in order to meet the increasing grow of the demand for automobiles of the company in which the arguer works. His conclusion is groundless because of his gratuitous assumption that their marketing projections indicate that eighty million people will want to buy their automobiles.(人家還有過調查的哦，不是無端的猜測哦！) What is more, he cites a successful example as his evidence to support his claim. If having a scrutiny, we will find that this argument is problematic for several reasons.

In the first place, the arguer reaches a conclusion that the demand for automobiles in his company is expected to increase dramatically, which simplies based on their marketing projections which indicate that eighty million people will want to buy their automobiles. It seems a large number of future-customers as the number of people who want to buy their automobiles are eighty millions, but there is no clear information about when these eighty millions people will really buy their cars, if some of them want cars in ten years or five years, this automobile manufacturing company do not have to open a new manufacturing plants to produce more automobiles. They have violate the rule of demond and supply, if they produce too many automobiles, and thus they have to put the unsold automobiles into storage, which will certainly influence their company, not to mention their company can continue to thrive.   （這個論點不錯~）

In the second place, the arguer commites a fallacy of improper analogy, because he thinks the successful example of a major airplane five years ago can be studied and imitated. Granted that their automobile manufacturing company can make money by building a new manufacturing plants and produce more automobiles, whether the way to run this new plant on a part-time basis can be successful is open to doubt. The success of that major airplane manufacturer by using similar part-time rotating strategy may recur in the field of automobile manufacturing companies. The procedures to manufacture and assemble automobiles and airplanes, the shifts of workers, and management strategies may be different, just simply applying the successful way in airplane manurfacturing to automobile manufacturing is of great stake.

In sum, this argument is not as persuasive as it would be, if the arguer would provide clear information that within how many years these eighty million future-customers want to buy their automobiles, and he have to produce more evidence concerning the part-time rotating strategy, to prove such a strategy can be safely used in their company. Also useful would any information on the similarities between the airplane manufacturer and their automobile manufacturing company.

[ 本帖最后由 dg336688 于 2007-7-22 22:08 编辑 ]