Argument117

woodmanUID：161906

Argument117
117 Thefollowing is a memo from the business manager of Valu-Mart stores.
"Over 70 percent of the respondents to a recent survey reported that theyare required to take more work home with them from the workplace than they werein the past. Since Valu-Mart has not seen impressive sales in its office-supplydepartments in the past, we should take advantage of this work-at-home trend byincreasing at all Valu-Mart stores the stock of home office machines such asprinters, small copy machines, paper shredders, and fax machines. We will also increasestock of office supplies such as paper, pens, and staplers. With these changes,our office-supply departments will become the most profitable component of ourstores."

调查的可信度，是否真的人们需要在家工作
既使人们更多的需要在家工作,也不一定会对家用办公设备增加需求
即便真的需求增加，也不一定盈利

The arguer’s view seems to be sound andconvincing at first glance that it is reasonable to increase all Valu-Mart stores’ stock of homeoffice machines and office supplies such as printers and paper because a surveyshows trend of people are required to take more work home than in the past. However, I’m afraid his argument can hardly bear furtherconsideration since there are several flaws in it.

Firstly, the arguer fails to provideconvincing information about the survey. He doesn’t tell us how many peopletook this survey and what career, sexuality and age of the respondents are. Itis possible that the number of people who take the survey is small, perhapsjust 30 or even smaller, thus it can’t reflect the typical situation, thus itcan’t convince us to believe that the survey is trustworthy. Moreover, if most respondentsare parents, then they prefer working at home so that they can take care oftheir children. Or if most respondents are those who provide individual healthcare or private lessons, perhaps they always have to take workhome. Without ruling the possibilities above, the survey of trend oftaking more work home is problematic.

Secondly, even if more and more people takemore work home, the assumption that such trend will lead to an increasingrequirement of home office machines and supplies is unwarranted. Maybe the workwhich is taking home is so simple that office machines and supplies such asprinters, small copy machines, paper shredders, and fax machines are not required.There is also possibility that the consumers may already have adequate equipmentsfor work they take home, there is no need to buy a new one.   

Finally, given that people who have to takemore work home need more office machines and office supplies such as printers and paper, the arguerfails to offer any proof that can ensure Valu-Mart stores will make profit ifthey increase the stock. He ignores that possibility that the competition in officemachines and supplies might be fairly fierce. Perhapsthere are many other large companies who could provide better goods andservice, and they take up most of the market of office machines and supplies.However, Valu-Martstores might have only a small share of the market, which won’t bring them muchprofit. What’s more, as they increase the stock, the coston stock storage and maintenance might increase. If the sale is not as satisfactoryas they suppose, it is entirely possible that they might suffer a loss ratherthan any profit. Thus, compared with other dedpartments Valu-Mart stores, office-supplydepartments might be more profitable. The arguerasserts that their office-supply departments will become the most profitablecomponent of their stores is unfounded.

In all,to persuade me that increase all Valu-Mart stores’ stock of home officemachines and office supplies is necessary, the arguer must provide detailinformation about the survey which can represent typical situation, and offerconvincing evidence that increase in work took homewill lead to an increasing requirement of home office machines and supplies.Moreover, the arguer should show me that office-supply departments of Valu-Mart stores will gain profit dueto the increase of stock of home office machines and office supplies.

提纲：
167
1.初步研究不足以成为医学上的结论
2.研究本身不可信:第二周的睡眠不好可能是第三周睡眠时间长的原因；没有说明第三周时志愿者醒来后的感觉
3.研究本身对志愿者有影响，环境的熟悉程度

56
1.仅发现头部和手部的模具，不能说明等身泥土塑像都是用模子做成的
2.不一定是模型的问题导致雕像风格不同
3.雕刻工具很少发现不代表工具很少
4.没有证据表明大雕像价值下降而小雕像价值上升

192
1.接电话的例子没有代表性，不能说明合并的必要性，而且其他解决的办法很简单。2.开支不一定会节省。虽然工作是单份的，但会是庞大的。而且这样的后果是使机构更复杂，可能会降低工作效率。3.人员重新分配。既然工作不再双份，必然岗位减少，需要员工减少。4.合并的例子不能说明问题。时间不同，地点不同，没有可能比性。另外他们的投资吸引可能是因为经济的发展和其他措施，也许与合并没有关系。

120
1.事故数量上升不一定表明问题比以前严重
2.没有证据表明事故与戴头盔有关
3.安全教育是一方面，戴头盔也应该鼓励

[ 本帖最后由 woodman 于 2007-7-25 17:19 编辑 ]

nornsUID：2325187

117 Thefollowing is a memo from the business manager of Valu-Mart stores.
"Over 70 percent of the respondents to a recent survey reported that theyare required to take more work home with them from the workplace than they werein the past. Since Valu-Mart has not seen impressive sales in its office-supplydepartments in the past, we should take advantage of this work-at-home trend byincreasing at all Valu-Mart stores the stock of home office machines such asprinters, small copy machines, paper shredders, and fax machines. We will also increasestock of office supplies such as paper, pens, and staplers. With these changes,our office-supply departments will become the most profitable component of ourstores."

调查的可信度，是否真的人们需要在家工作
既使人们更多的需要在家工作一定会对家用办公设备增加需求
即便真的需求增加，也不一定盈利

The arguer’s view seems to be sound andconvincing at first glance that it is reasonable to increase all Valu-Mart stores’ stock of homeoffice machines and office supplies such as printers and paper because a surveyshows trend of people are required to take more work home than in the past. However, I’m afraid his argument can hardly bear furtherconsideration since there are several flaws in it.

Firstly, the arguer fails to provideconvincing information about the survey. He doesn’t tell us how many peopletook this survey and what career, sexuality and age of the respondents are. Itis possible that the number of people who take the survey is small, perhapsjust 30 or even smaller, thus it can’t reflect the typical situation, thus itcan’t convince us to believe that the survey is trustworthy. Moreover, if most respondents are parents, then they prefer working at home so that they can take care oftheir children. Or if most respondents are those who provide individual healthcare or private lessons, perhaps they always have to take workhome. Without ruling the possibilities above, the survey of trend oftaking more work home is problematic.

Secondly, even if more and more people takemore work home, the assumption that such trend will lead to an increasingrequirement of home office machines and supplies is unwarranted. Maybe the work which is taking home is so simple that office machines and supplies such asprinters, small copy machines, paper shredders, and fax machines are not required.There is also possibility that the consumers may already have adequate equipmentsfor work they take home, there is no need to buy a new one.   

Finally, given that people who have to takemore work home need more office machines and office supplies such as printers and paper, the arguerfails to offer any proof that can ensure Valu-Mart stores will make profit ifthey increase the stock. He ignores that possibility that the competition in officemachines and supplies might be fairly fierce. Perhaps there are many other large companies who could provide better goods andservice, and they take up most of the market of office machines and supplies.However, Valu-Martstores might have only a small share of the market, which won’t bring them muchprofit. What’s more, as they increase the stock, the coston stock storage and maintenance might increase. If the sale is not as satisfactoryas they suppose, it is entirely possible that they might suffer a loss ratherthan any profit. Thus, compared with other dedpartments Valu-Mart stores, office-supplydepartments might be more profitable. The arguerasserts that their office-supply departments will become the most profitablecomponent of their stores is unfounded.

In all,to persuade me that increase all Valu-Mart stores’ stock of home officemachines and office supplies is necessary, the arguer must provide detailinformation about the survey which can represent typical situation, and offerconvincing evidence that increase in work took homewill lead to an increasing requirement of home office machines and supplies.Moreover, the arguer should show me that office-supply departments of Valu-Mart stores will gain profit dueto the increase of stock of home office machines and office supplies.

argu我实在不知道怎么改，说实话只要逻辑链没抓错我觉得展开都差不多。Lz大的问题我觉得没有..
是我自己这方面太薄弱了，对argu没感觉，抱歉

zhangjing106UID：2157010

逻辑没问题，组长明天可以直接去考试了，呵呵