argument45 勇往直前小组

zhangjing106UID：2157010

I do not agree with the arguer that the decline in arctic deer populations is caused by recent global warming trends. To support his conclusion the arguer cites reports from local hunters and contemporaneous global warming trends. Although his points seem reasonable at first glance, I find several logical flaws in this argument.

Firstly, the reports from local hunters that the number of arctic deer is declining are unpersuasive. It is possible that after governments prohibit hunters using guns in hunting animals the hunters have fewer abilities to catch arctic deer than before. If it is true, local hunters maybe sport that the number of arctic deer decreases, because they could catch fewer arctic deer than before. Or perhaps when local hunters make such reports, arctic deer have already migrated to other islands to search for food. In such case, the reports from local hunters are inexact at all because of the populations of arctic deer are still the same as before.

Secondly, given that reports from local hunters are true, it might due to other reasons other than recent global warming trends. No evidence proves that Canada's arctic region becomes more and warmer than before. Perhaps local temperature remains cold enough to lead arctic deer survive. Or the more local hunters choose to catch arctic deer instead of other kinds of animals. Excess hunting causes the decline in arctic deer populations. Or some important kinds of plants which arctic deer feed are extinct because of climate, temperature or human actions. Without enough food, arctic deer starve to death causing decline of populations.

Thirdly, even if Canada's arctic region has been warmer than before, it is also hard to draw a conclusion that warming trends because declining of arctic deer populations. The arguer does not provide any information in which temperature arctic deer use to live. Perhaps the temperature still suit for arctic deer to live even it has risen. Moreover, the arguer does not provide any evidence that arctic deer will die if the temperature increases. Without persuasive evidences to prove that arctic deer sure to die with recent warming trends, the arguer could not convince me that warming trends have relationship with the decline in arctic deer populations.

In summary, the arguer should provide more information and evidences to support his conclusion. For example, he could gives scientific data about temperature arctic deer like to live. Or he also could prove that other possibilities are not certain without recent global warming trends.

4
1、  没有说明A中房地产经纪人的职业状态，有可能很多也是兼职工作。
2、  收入是两倍，不一定获利更多。有可能A的经纪人多，分公司更多，运营的成本更高，虽然收入多，但是利润比F少
3、  平均房价不说明问题，房价和房屋本身的价值相关，地段，新旧程度，装修好坏，大小等。
4、  卖房速度的快慢也不说明问题，有可能十年前的房屋需求量少，而去年的房屋需求量大。

129．
1、研究报告的可信度。可能养狗的人的身体较好，注意锻炼。除非提供比较数据，证明相同年龄和健康状况的人相比，养狗的比不养狗的心脏病发病率较低。
2、论者假设养狗是让心脏病患者恢复的原因，但这个没有经过征实
3、没有证据证明更多的人会领养宠物，即使宣传该计划也可能没人愿意领养宠物

185．
1、这种变革将节省大量的花费没有依据。水压低不等于用水量少，甚至可能用的更多。
2、没有反映关于淋浴喷头的报告，不证明没有问题发生。
3、在最低五层适用的政策不一定在全部楼层都适用

212．
1、驾驶员的数量增加不一定P车的市场份额会增加。新增的驾驶员有可能会倾向于买竞争对手的车，也可能不买车
2、没证据证明新款车好卖。可能会失去老客户，也没有得到新客户。
2、Y广告公司虽然能够成功地为软饮料作宣传，没证据证明能做好汽车宣传

nornsUID：2325187

I do not agree with the arguer that the decline in arctic deer populations is caused by recent global warming trends. To support his conclusion the arguer cites reports from local hunters and contemporaneous global warming trends. Although his points seem reasonable at first glance, I find several logical flaws in this argument.

Firstly, the reports from local hunters that the number of arctic deer is declining are unpersuasive. It is possible that after governments prohibit hunters using guns in hunting animals the hunters have fewer abilities to catch arctic deer than before. If it is true, local hunters maybe sport that the number of arctic deer decreases, because they could catch fewer arctic deer than before. Or perhaps when local hunters make such reports, arctic deer have already migrated to other islands to search for food. In such case, the reports from local hunters are inexact at all because of the populations of arctic deer are still the same as before.

Secondly, given that reports from local hunters are true, it (什么可能是其他原因造成得？TS一定要说清楚，别偷懒哈)might due to other reasons other than recent global warming trends. No evidence proves that Canada's arctic region becomes more and warmer than before. Perhaps local temperature remains cold enough to lead arctic deer survive. （我感觉）Or the more local hunters choose to catch arctic deer instead of other kinds of animals. Excess hunting causes the decline in arctic deer populations. Or some important kinds of plants which arctic deer feed are extinct because of climate, temperature or human actions. Without enough food, arctic deer starve to death causing decline of populations.

Thirdly, even if Canada's arctic region has been warmer than before, it is also hard to draw a conclusion that warming trends because（cause？） declining of arctic deer populations. The arguer does not provide any information in which temperature arctic deer use to live. Perhaps the temperature still suit for arctic deer to live even it has risen. Moreover, the arguer does not provide any evidence that arctic deer will die if the temperature increases. Without persuasive evidences to prove that arctic deer sure to die with recent warming trends, the arguer could not convince me that warming trends have relationship with the decline in arctic deer populations.

前提：deer的习性啥的
证据：1猎人报告下降； 2是global warming 导致 isolation， not migrate
结论： 由于冰化了deer不能迁徙，所以decline
我觉得比较好的顺序是
1 猎人的report真实性值得置疑
2globa warming 是否真的能导致这特定地区的 不能migrate？
3 （其实我觉得让步关系只有这一个）承认前面两个 那么decline的主要原因是不是 ‘warming导致 not migrate’ ？


我感觉你的body的二三段好像有些不清晰， 似乎试图直接驳斥warming 和decline的逻辑链，那样跳过了not migrate 这一环结， 导致层次感差了

In summary, the arguer should provide more information and evidences to support his conclusion. For example, he could gives scientific data about temperature arctic deer like to live. Or he also could prove that other possibilities are not certain without recent global warming trends.


总体来说段内的功夫有进步！语言也有进步！不过就这篇而言 段间层次 还是要注意下。  加油加油，这篇有进步，希望下篇改进

woodmanUID：161906

I donot agree with the arguer that the decline in arctic deer populations is causedby recent global warming trends(题目给出的最直接的原因是不能迁徙，不要改写了题目中的信息). To support hisconclusion the arguer cites reports from local hunters and contemporaneousglobal warming trends. Although his points seem reasonable at first glance, Ifind several logical flaws in this argument.

Firstly, the reports from local hunters that the number of arctic deer isdeclining are unpersuasive. It is possible that after governments prohibithunters using guns in hunting animals the hunters have fewer abilities to catcharctic deer than before. If it is true, local hunters maybe sport that thenumber of arctic deer decreases, because they could catch fewer arctic deerthan before. Or perhaps when local hunters make such reports, arctic deer havealready migrated to other islands to search for food. In such case, the reportsfrom local hunters are inexact at all because of the populations of arctic deerare still the same as before.

Secondly, given that reports from local hunters are true, it might due to otherreasons other than recent global warming trends（少了东东啊，其他原因导致什么？）. No evidence proves that Canada's arcticregion becomes more and warmer than before. Perhaps local temperature remainscold enough to lead arctic deer survive. Or the morelocal hunters choose to catch arctic deer instead of other kinds of animals.Excess hunting causes the decline in arctic deer populations. Or some importantkinds of plants which arctic deer feed are extinct because of climate,temperature or human actions. Without enough food, arctic deer starve to deathcausing decline of populations.（并入下一段，这样看起来结构更清晰，否则这2段有重复）
Thirdly, even if Canada'sarctic region has been warmer than before, it is also hard to draw a conclusionthat warming trends because declining of arctic deer populations. The arguerdoes not provide any information in which temperature arctic deer use to live.Perhaps the temperature still suit for arctic deer to live even it has risen.Moreover, the arguer does not provide any evidence that arctic deer will die ifthe temperature increases. Without persuasive evidences to prove that arcticdeer sure to die with recent warming trends, the arguer could not convince methat warming trends have relationship with the decline in arctic deerpopulations.

In summary, the arguer should provide more information and evidences to supporthis conclusion. For example, he could gives scientific data about temperaturearctic deer like to live. Or he also could prove that other possibilities arenot certain without recent global warming trends.
有进步啊，这次的反例没有什么问题。静加油，哈哈哈