Argument45

woodmanUID：161906

Argument45
The arguerconcludes that decline in arctic deer populations is the result of deer beingunable to follow their age-old migration patterns across the frozen sea in thatreports of local hunters shows deer decrease and recent global warming trend hascaused the sea ice to melt.. His view seems to be sound and convincing at firstglance. However, I’m afraid his argument can hardly bear further considerationsince there are several flaws in it.

Firstly,the arguer fails to provide convincing information about reports from localhunters. Perhaps local hunters lack of scientific method to count the accurateamount of the Arctic deer. Since hunters are unable to differentiate everydeer, and the deer are moving most of the time, it is possible that hunters seethe deer in one place and then see it at another place, but they mistakenly count it as a two. Similarly, they might regard twodifferent deer as the same one when they see it at different place. Thus, deernumber in their reports is questionable. Even if local hunters could make exactcounting, their statistics are limited by their available counting area.Apparently, some area of Canada's arctic region is dangerous forhunters to go hunting, since there are so many avalanches and storms. Huntersmight be mainly go hunting in those relatively safer areas, so they just counta small fraction of the deer. Without ruling thepossibilities above, the arguer’s conclusion is problematic.

Secondly, given that local hunters’ reportsare trustworthy, the arguer fails to provide any evidence that there is an increasein temperature of Canada'sarctic region, causing ice to melt. A global warm trend is not equivalent withevery place all over the world becomes warmer and warmer. It is entirelypossible that most parts of the world are experiencing an increasing temperature,but Canada'sarctic region might maintain its temperature as well as in the past. Even ifthere is a warm trend in Canada'sarctic region, the arguer does not provide detailed increase in temperature. Perhapstemperature there increases so slightly that it won’t affect the ice melt, thenthe arguer’s claim maybe definitely problematic.

Finally, even if reports of decline in deer population coincidewith recent global warming trends that have caused the sea ice to melt aretrue, there is no evidence shows that it is the change in deer’s age-oldmigration patterns across the frozen sea that leads to such decline. The arguerignores the possibility that arctic deer might have a strong ability of adaptation;therefore, they can survive in their changing living environment. Also, thearguer does not take other possible factors such as epidemic disease and decreasing food into account. If there is a burst of serious epidemic disease in deer, then the number mightdecline sharply. Or if recently their natural enemy such as wolves increases greatly and they prey moredeer, deer population might decline. Besides, maybe due to sudden fungi infection, plants on which they feed decrease, then many deer might die ofstarvation.

In all, to persuade me thatdecline in arctic deer populations is the result of deer being unable to followtheir age-old migration patterns across the frozen sea, the arguer must providedetail information that local hunters’ reports of decline in deer population istrue, and offer convincing evidence that there in an increase in temperature inCanada'sarctic region. Moreover, the arguershould show me that it is the change in deer’s age-old migration patternsacross the frozen sea that leads to such decline.

提纲：
4
1.没有证据表明A更好。
2.即使A更好，好的代理不一定会带来好的销售
3.9年的时间市场变化大

185
1.限制水流不一定必然的节水
2.即使能节约成本，也只是收益里的很小的一部分
3.以后可能很多住户抱怨

129
1.研究存在问题
2.没有证据表明收养狗会降低心脏病或有助于康复
3.即使有助于康复，医药费不一定降低

212
1.尽管没有对手卖得好，旧款不一定销量不行
2.没有证据表明新拿驾照的人喜欢运动型车子
3.Y不一定了解汽车市场，因而不一定成功促进销售

[ 本帖最后由 woodman 于 2007-7-25 17:54 编辑 ]

zhangjing106UID：2157010

The arguerconcludes that decline in arctic deer populations is the result of deer beingunable to follow their age-old migration patterns across the frozen sea in thatreports of local hunters shows deer decrease and recent global warming trend hascaused the sea ice to melt.. His view seems to be sound and convincing at firstglance. However, I’m afraid his argument can hardly bear further considerationsince there are several flaws in it.

Firstly,the arguer fails to provide convincing information about reports from localhunters. Perhaps local hunters lack of scientific method to count the accurateamount of the Arctic deer. Since hunters are unable to differentiate everydeer, and the deer are moving most of the time, it is possible that hunters seethe deer in one place and then see it at another place, but they mistakenly count it as a two. Similarly, they might regard twodifferent deer as the same one when they see it at different place. Thus, deernumber in their reports is questionable. Even if local hunters could make exactcounting, their statistics are limited by their available counting area.Apparently, some area of Canada's arctic region is dangerous forhunters to go hunting, since there are so many avalanches and storms. Huntersmight be mainly go hunting in those relatively safer areas, so they just counta small fraction of the deer. Without ruling thepossibilities above, the arguer’s conclusion is problematic.（举例子是不是举猎人怎么把两头鹿算成一头鹿比较好啊？）

Secondly, given that local hunters’ reportsare trustworthy, the arguer fails to provide any evidence that there is an increasein temperature of Canada'sarctic region, causing ice to melt. A global warm trend is not equivalent withevery place all over the world becomes warmer and warmer. It is entirelypossible that most parts of the world are experiencing an increasing temperature,but Canada'sarctic region might maintain its temperature as well as in the past. Even ifthere is a warm trend in Canada'sarctic region, the arguer does not provide detailed increase in temperature. Perhapstemperature there increases so slightly that it won’t affect the ice melt, thenthe arguer’s claim maybe definitely problematic.

Finally, even if reports of decline in deer population coincidewith recent global warming trends that have caused the sea ice to melt aretrue, there is no evidence shows that it is the change in deer’s age-oldmigration patterns across the frozen sea that leads to such decline. The arguerignores the possibility that arctic deer might have a strong ability of adaptation;therefore, they can survive in their changing living environment. Also, thearguer does not take other possible factors such as epidemic disease and decreasing food into account. If there is a burst of serious epidemic disease in deer, then the number mightdecline sharply. Or if recently their natural enemy such as wolves increases greatly and they prey moredeer, deer population might decline. Besides, maybe due to sudden fungi infection, plants on which they feed decrease, then many deer might die ofstarvation.

In all, to persuade me thatdecline in arctic deer populations is the result of deer being unable to followtheir age-old migration patterns across the frozen sea, the arguer must providedetail information that local hunters’ reports of decline in deer population istrue, and offer convincing evidence that there in an increase in temperature inCanada'sarctic region. Moreover, the arguershould show me that it is the change in deer’s age-old migration patternsacross the frozen sea that leads to such decline.
这一篇写的很长了咧。不错！

nornsUID：2325187

Argument45
The arguerconcludes that decline in arctic deer populations is the result of deer beingunable to follow their age-old migration patterns across the frozen sea in thatreports of local hunters shows deer decrease and recent global warming trend hascaused the sea ice to melt.. His view seems to be sound and convincing at firstglance. However, I’m afraid his argument can hardly bear further considerationsince there are several flaws in it.

Firstly,the arguer fails to provide convincing information about reports from localhunters. Perhaps local hunters lack of scientific method to count the accurateamount of the Arctic deer. Since hunters are unable to differentiate everydeer, and the deer are moving most of the time, it is possible that hunters seethe deer in one place and then see it at another place, but they mistakenly count it as a two. (这个，以俺工科男的眼光，不专业哈～你可以说他们缺乏系统的科学统计方法。一是数据记录，二就是统计估算不到位。不能由样本推测种群数量，不能由一地的种群数量推测全部的；感觉你在一只两只的问题上有点罗嗦，恩)Similarly, they might regard twodifferent deer as the same one when they see it at different place. Thus, deernumber in their reports is questionable. Even if local hunters could make exactcounting, their statistics are limited by their available counting area.Apparently, some area of Canada's arctic region is dangerous forhunters to go hunting, since there are so many avalanches and storms. Huntersmight be mainly go hunting in those relatively safer areas, so they just counta small fraction of the deer. Without ruling thepossibilities above, the arguer’s conclusion is problematic.

Secondly, given that local hunters’ reportsare trustworthy, the arguer fails to provide any evidence that there is an increasein temperature of Canada'sarctic region, causing ice to melt. A global warm trend is not equivalent withevery place all over the world becomes warmer and warmer. It is entirelypossible that most parts of the world are experiencing an increasing temperature,but Canada'sarctic region might maintain its temperature as well as in the past. Even ifthere is a warm trend in Canada'sarctic region, the arguer does not provide detailed increase in temperature. Perhapstemperature there increases so slightly that it won’t affect the ice melt,（还可以再让一步，即使化了，也不见得化光了，把岛都孤立了啊） thenthe arguer’s claim maybe definitely problematic.

Finally, even if reports of decline in deer population coincidewith recent global warming trends that have caused the sea ice to melt aretrue, there is no evidence shows that it is the change in deer’s age-oldmigration patterns across the frozen sea that leads to such decline. The arguerignores the possibility that arctic deer might have a strong ability of adaptation;therefore, they can survive in their changing living environment. Also, thearguer does not take other possible factors such as epidemic disease and decreasing food into account. If there is a burst of serious epidemic disease in deer, then the number mightdecline sharply. Or if recently their natural enemy such as wolves increases greatly and they prey moredeer, deer population might decline. Besides, maybe due to sudden fungi infection, plants on which they feed decrease, then many deer might die ofstarvation.

In all, to persuade me thatdecline in arctic deer populations is the result of deer being unable to followtheir age-old migration patterns across the frozen sea, the arguer must providedetail information that local hunters’ reports of decline in deer population istrue, and offer convincing evidence that there in an increase in temperature inCanada'sarctic region. Moreover, the arguershould show me that it is the change in deer’s age-old migration patternsacross the frozen sea that leads to such decline.

不错， 很稳定的水平～～没什么大问题～