Argument47 ［勇往直前小组］第七次作业by269750640

269750640UID：2358012

Scientists studying historical weather patterns have discovered that in the mid-sixth

century, Earth suddenly became significantly cooler. Although few historical records survive

from that time, some accounts found both in Asia and Europe mention a dimming of the sun and

extremely cold temperatures. Either a huge volcanic eruption or a large meteorite colliding

with Earth could have created a large dust cloud throughout Earth's atmosphere that would

have been capable of blocking enough sunlight to lower global temperatures significantly. A

large meteorite collision, however, would probably create a sudden bright flash of light,

and no extant historical records of the time mention such a flash. Some surviving Asian

historical records of the time, however, mention a loud boom that would be consistent with a

volcanic eruption. Therefore, the cooling was probably caused by a volcanic eruption.
研究历史上气候变化的学者发现在六世纪中叶，地球突然变冷了很多。尽管那个时期很少有历史记录被保

存下来，一些在亚洲和欧洲所发现的记录提到了太阳变暗和极度的寒冷。要么是巨大的火山喷发，要么是

撞击地球的大型小行星导致地球大气形成一大片尘埃云层，这阻止了一定的阳光导致全球温度显著下降。

然而，大型小行星的撞击可能产生突然的强闪光，而现存的那时的历史记录中没有提到过这样的闪光。然

而那时遗留下来的一些亚洲历史纪录提到过与一次火山喷发相一致的巨大隆隆声。因此，那时的温度下降

多半是火山喷发导致的。

In the argument above, the arguer concludes that the cooling was probably caused by a volcanic eruption, to make the deduction more clearly; conclusion could be divided into following sub-ones.
1) there is no other reasons except a huge volcanic eruption or a large meteorite colliding with Earth could have created a large dust cloud throughout Earth's atmosphere that would have been capable of blocking enough sunlight to lower global temperatures significantly.  
2) A large meteorite collision could not exist
3) A huge volcanic eruption are exist
, after close scrutiny of the facts listed in the argument, little supports found existing facts could lend to above sub-conclusions.
To illustrate the first sub-conclusion .the arguer cites the fact that  few historical records survive from that time, some accounts found both in Asia and Europe mention a dimming of the sun and extremely cold temperatures  to sustain there is no other reasons except a huge volcanic eruption or a large meteorite colliding with Earth could have created a large dust cloud .However, imagine that there are any other reasons. The arguer only concludes two reasons caused the temperatures cooling .If it is not volcanic eruption, it is large meteorite colliding. Maybe the arguer are not consider comprehensively.
   Even first sub-conclusion is founded, still, there is a weak connection between first sub-conclusion and a large meteorite collision could not exist, it is possible that a loud boom that would be consistent with a large meteorite collision. The collision also make loud boom.
Finally, it is presumptuous to extrapolate a huge volcanic eruption are exist according to a history record. Actually there is no evidence to show the huge volcanic eruption cause the cooling temperatures.
  Consequently ，the conclusion lacks of credibility ,only the arguer provides more evidence to resolve the fallacies above, the  argument could be persuasive.
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Argument：25（频次36，第1类由此及彼），242（频次31，第2类决策解释），76（频次33，第4类现象分析），12（频次19，第6类描述现象/解决问题）
25.The following appeared in a memo from the mayor of the town of
Hopewell.

"Two years ago, the town of Ocean View built a new municipal golf course
and resort hotel. During the past two years, tourism in Ocean View has
increased, new businesses have opened there, and Ocean View's tax revenues
have risen by 30 percent. The best way to improve Hopewell's economy, and
generate additional tax revenues, is to build a golf course and resort
hotel similar to those in Ocean View."

两年前Ocean View建造了一个新的市立高尔夫球场和度假旅馆。过去两年中，Ocean
View的旅客增加了，开设了很多新的商业，而且税收增加了30％。改善Hopewell的经济，产生更多税收的最好途径就是建立一个和Ocean
View类似的高尔夫球场和度假旅馆。
1 在OV造的高尔夫球场和度假旅馆成功
A OV旅客增加
B 开设新商业
C 税收增加
2 H应该学OV

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242.The following appeared as an editorial in the student newspaper of
Groveton College.

"To combat the recently reported dramatic rise in cheating among college
and university students, these institutions should adopt honor codes
similar to Groveton's, which calls for students to agree not to cheat in
their academic endeavors and to notify a faculty member if they suspect
that others have cheated. Groveton's honor code replaced an old-fashioned
system in which students were closely monitored by teachers and an average
of thirty cases of cheating per year were reported. The honor code has
proven far more successful: in the first year it was in place, students
reported twenty-one cases of cheating; five years later, this figure had
dropped to fourteen. Moreover, in a recent survey conducted by the
Groveton honor council, a majority of students said that they would be
less likely to cheat with an honor code in place than without."

为解决最近上报的大学生作弊现象显著增加的问题，大学和学院应该采取和Groveton学院类似的诚信制度，该制度要求学生同意在学业中不作弊，并且当他们怀疑别人作弊的时候通知老师。Groveton的诚信制度代替了原有的学生被老师严密监视的老体制，在老体制中平均每年有30起作弊被上报。该制度被证明成功的多：在它实施的第一年，学生上报了21起作弊；五年后，这一数值下降到了14起。而且，在最近一次由Groveton诚信委员会组织的调查中，大部分学生说有了诚信制度他们更加不太可能作弊。
1采用类似G的做法
2 G做法成功
A 上报次数下降
B 调查显示不可能作弊
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76.The following appeared as part of an article in a health and beauty
magazine.

"A group of volunteers participated in a study of consumer responses to
the new Luxess face cream. Every morning for a month, they washed their
faces with mild soap and then applied Luxess. At the end of that month,
most volunteers reported a marked improvement in the way their skin looked
and felt. Thus it appears that Luxess is truly effective in improving the
condition of facial skin."

一组志愿者参加了一项关于消费者对新的Luxess面霜的反应的调查。在一个月中的每个早晨，他们都用柔和香皂洗脸然后使用Luxess。一个月之后，多数志愿者报告说他们皮肤的观感显著改善。因此，这说明Luxess对于改善面部皮肤状况确实有效。
1L有效
A 调查显示皮肤感官显著改善
B 此调查配合使用柔和香皂洗脸
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12.The following appeared in a memo from a vice president of Alta
Manufacturing.

"During the past year, Alta Manufacturing had thirty percent more
on-the-job accidents than nearby Panoply Industries, where the work shifts
are one hour shorter than ours. Experts believe that a significant
contributing factor in many on-the-job accidents is fatigue and sleep
deprivation among workers. Therefore, to reduce the number of on-the-job
accidents at Alta and thereby increase productivity, we should shorten
each of our three work shifts by one hour so that our employees will get
adequate amounts of sleep."

在过去，Alta工厂的工伤事故比邻近的Panoply工厂多30％，Panoply的每班工作时间比我们的短一个小时。专家相信导致很多工伤事故的重要因素就是工人的疲劳和睡眠不足。因此，为减少Alta的工伤事故数量并提高生产数量，我们应该把我们的三个班次的工作时间每个都减少一小时，从而我们的雇员将有更充足的睡眠。

1 A 比P工伤多30%
A P时间短一小时
2 疲劳和睡眠不足导致工伤
3 减少工伤数提高生产数



[ 本帖最后由 269750640 于 2007-7-28 12:51 编辑 ]