Argument147 【7.28 高频是够难写的】

gyyxUID: 2290150

TOPIC: ARGUMENT147 - The following appeared in an editorial in a business magazine.

"Although the sales of Whirlwind video games have declined over the past two years, a recent survey of video-game players suggests that this sales trend is about to be reversed. The survey asked video-game players what features they thought were most important in a video game. According to the survey, players prefer games that provide lifelike graphics, which require the most up-to-date computers. Whirlwind has just introduced several such games with an extensive advertising campaign directed at people 10 to 25 years old, the age-group most likely to play video games. It follows, then, that the sales of Whirlwind video games are likely to increase dramatically in the next few months."
WORDS: 403          TIME: 00:30:00          DATE: 2007-7-28 21:53:43

Giving a survey and some analyses above, the author conclude that the sales of Whirlwind (W) video games are likely to improve in next few months. This argument seems sound and convictive on the surface, however, a close scrutiny in another angle reveal its flaw.
Primarily, whether the market will increase remains uncertain due to no evidence resorted to. The mere survey that asking video-game players what features they take most in a video game could not guarantee the increase in market, as there's no statistics to indicate the number of game player will increase. Additionally, although W has introduce several lifelike graphics video games, which the game players care most, it could not conduce that they will buy this new games, the most common reason of which maybe the could not afford the up-to-date computers. Without sufficient evidence, the author could not conclude that the market of W will increase.

Next, W's extensive advertising campaign directed at people 10 to 25 years old may be not a wise choice, although they are the age-group most likely to play video games. A high possibility could not be excluded is that this age-group has little freedom to decide the money. Perhaps their parents will not buy these games for them, with the reason games will be harmful to the study results, and they have enough video games to play now. Lack of information of this group's situation, we could not judge the argument recklessly.

Finally, as W suffers from decline in video games for two years, the reason for this decline maybe complex. Since no evidence, the author could not refute that maybe in these two years we always introduce these lifelike graphics games, but sales still low down. And even if the reason of the decline is that W lack of these games, we could not deduce it will make increasing sales, as no evidence of the market. Maybe some other companies have held the market, and for W, if not amazing games and advertising, it won't compete with those companies. All these possibilities should be taken into consideration before concluding.

In sum, this argument ignores some fundamental factors involving in the sales decline, and insufficient evidence offered to the increase in sales. For an increase of sales, the author should deep into the number of players and potential players, the information of players’ age-group, and more information about the competitor needed too.

njuzhshaoUID: 2258118

文章的覆盖面基本上到位了，能够在三十分钟写四个点挺不容易的，但是同时造成了有些观点展不开，很仓促。第一段的批判就几乎只有判定性的话，两个观点只有一句细节的反例，放在后面还可以接受，放在首段有点寒碜。第二段其实有很多东西可以说，当决策权交到家长、成年人手中的时候，不知是欣赏品味或者出于教育的考虑这样的问题，最直接的一条就是上面的survey不成立了，然后是advertising失效了，最后，正如文中说的，他们似乎还对游戏有一定的抵制。这一段其实最容易细细的展开，而且不是孤立的点，和文章的几乎所有论据能否成立都有关。而作者并没有能讲出来，又匆忙的过去。最后段初读感觉不好，乱。思路被淹没在of,that,not等等小词的海洋里，语言风格上应该有点变化突出逻辑关系。后再读，发现确实也认真展开反例了，例子挺扣题，也很不错。功过参半，注意语言。最后，拿出一句来鸡蛋里挑骨头：

The mere survey that asking video-game players what features they take most in a video game could not guarantee the increase in market, as there's no statistics to indicate the number of game player will increase. Additionally, ...
这里有一个问题,就是the number of game player will increase是不是the increase in market的必要条件。打个比方，a shot at him could not guarantee his death, as there is no evidence to indicate 命中要害。在这里，用以否定guarantee his death这个结果的必然性，举出的是 命中要害 这个直接的判定方法。所以，后面的 命中要害 起码是Death的必要条件（如果不是充要条件的话）。而上面的巨感觉没有说服力的原因就在于，the number of game player will increase和the increase in market之间有一个明显的跳跃，并且是那种经常被我们拿来批判的那种，就像是说a shot at him could not guarantee his death, as there is no evidence to indicate 打在太阳穴上。这就明显的漏洞了。