Argument48 ［勇往直前小组］第九次作业by269750640

269750640UID：2358012

48.The following appeared in a newspaper article published in the country
of Corpora.

"Twenty years ago, one half of all citizens in Corpora met the standards
for adequate physical fitness as then defined by the national advisory
board on physical fitness. Today, the board says that only one quarter of
all citizens are adequately fit and suggests that spending too much time
using computers may be the reason. But since overall fitness levels are
highest in regions of Corpora where levels of computer ownership are also
highest, it is clear that using computers has not made citizens less
physically fit. Instead, as shown by this year's unusually low
expenditures on fitness-related products and services, the recent decline
in the economy is most likely the cause, and fitness levels will improve
when the economy does."

20年前，Corpora的市民有一半都达到了那时由国家健身顾问委员会所定义的充分的健康标准。今天，

委员会指出所有市民只有四分之一的市民足够健康，并指出长时间的使用电脑可能是原因。但是由于在

Corpora电脑拥有量最高的地区也是总体健康水平最高的地区，显然使用电脑并没有导致市民体质的下

降。相反，今年用于健身产品和服务的花费低的异乎寻常，这表明最近经济的衰退最可能是原因，当经

济复苏了健康水平也会随之提高。

     In the argument above, the arguer concludes that the recent decline in the economy is most likely the this year's unusually low expenditures on fitness-related products and services, and fitness levels will improve when the economy does , to make the deduction more clearly, conclusion could be divided into  following sub-ones.
1) Twenty years ago, one half of all citizens in Corpora met the standards for adequate physical fitness as then defined by the national advisory board on physical fitness.   
2) Today, the board says that only one quarter of all citizens are adequately fit and suggests that spending too much time using computers may be the reason.
3)  Overall fitness levels are highest in regions of Corpora where levels of computer ownership are also highest, it is clear that using computers has not made citizens less physically fit.
, after close scrutiny of the facts listed in the argument, little supports found existing facts could lend to above sub-conclusions.
    To illustrate the first sub-conclusion .the arguer cites the fact that twenty years ago event to sustain one half of all citizens in Corpora met the standards for adequate physical fitness. However, imagine that twenty years is a long period in order to change amount things. How could the result of survey still remain in nowadays?
     Even first sub-conclusion is founded, still , there is a weak connection between second sub-conclusion and spending too much time using computers may be the reason ,it is  possible that other reasons, for example ,pollution ,stress, and any other invisible.
     Finally, it is presumptuous to extrapolate Overall fitness levels are highest in regions of Corpora; perhaps the overall can not represent the average. There is no evidence to show that.
Consequently ，the conclusion lacks of credibility ,only the arguer provides more evidence to resolve the fallacies above, the argument could be persuasive.

Argument：29（频次16，第2类决策解释）， 166（频次20，第3类比较引论），59（频次18，第4类现象分析），20（频次23，第5类观点说明）修改方案：
29.When Ida McAllister ran for mayor of Lake City four years ago, she
failed to win even 30 percent of the vote. But since then, McAllister has
made public her commitment to environmental causes. She would be wise,
therefore, to announce her intention to close all Lake City parks to
automobile traffic, thus following the example of the former mayor of
Plainsville, Alecia Yu . On the recommendation of a small group of
concerned citizens, Mayor Yu prohibited automobile traffic in all
Plainsville parks, and therefore was credited with solving the pollution
problem and improving the quality of life in Plainsville. This action
would have great appeal to the citizens of Lake City, most of whom
participate in the community's recycling program, and would guarantee
McAllister's success in her current quest to be Lake City's new mayor.

当Ida McAllister在四年前竞选Lake
City市的市长的时候，她失败了，甚至未能赢得30％的选票。但从那以后，McAllister公开了她对环境事业的支持。因而，如果她宣布她将会让Lake
City所有公园禁止汽车通行的话将会是十分明智的，这里有Plainsville前市长Alecia
Yu的先例。在一小群关注该问题的市民的建议下，Yu市长在Plainsville的所有公园都禁止汽车通行，因而被称赞为解决了Plainsville的污染问题和提高了生活质量。这一行动对于Lake
City的市民将会有极大吸引力，这些市民大部分参加了社区循环再生项目，也会保证McAllister在这次市长竞选中获得成功。
1 P前市长A成功
A Yu市长在Plainsville的所有公园都禁止汽车通行，因而被称赞为解决了Plainsville的污染问题和提高了生活质量
2 P类比于LC

166.The following appeared in a local newspaper.

"People should not be misled by the advertising competition between Coldex
and Cold-Away, both popular over-the-counter cold medications that anyone
can purchase without a doctor's prescription. Each brand is accusing the
other of causing some well-known, unwanted side effect: Coldex is known to
contribute to existing high blood pressure and Cold-Away is known to cause
drowsiness. But the choice should be clear for most health-conscious
people: Cold-Away has been on the market for much longer and is used by
more hospitals than is Coldex. Clearly, Cold-Away is more effective."

人们不应该被任何人不用医生处方就可以买到的OTC药品Coldex和Cold-Away之间的广告战所误导。每个牌子都指责另一种药会导致某种众所周知的不良副作用：Coldex导致血压升高而Cold-Away导致嗜睡。但对于多数关心健康的人来说选择是明显的：Cold-Away比Coldex上市时间更长而且被更多的医院所使用。显然，Cold-Away效果更好。
1Coldex和Cold-Away之间的广告战所误导
A Coldex导致血压升高
B Cold-Away导致嗜睡。
2 Cold-Away比Colde好
A Cold-Away比Coldex上市时间更长
B 且被更多的医院所使用。
59.The following appeared in an article in the health section of a
newspaper.

"According to the available medical records, the six worst worldwide flu
epidemics during the past 300 years occurred in 1729, 1830, 1918, 1957,
1968, and 1977. These were all years with heavy sunspot activity-that is,
years when the Earth received significantly more solar energy than in
normal years. People at particular risk for the flu should therefore avoid
prolonged exposure to the Sun."

根据现有的医疗记录，过去300年中最严重的六次世界范围的流感大流行分别发生于1729，1830，1918，1957和1977。这些都是太阳黑子活动剧烈的年份，即：地球所接收的太阳能比平常年份多的多的年份。因此，那些特别易患流感的人群应该避免长时间暴露于日光下。
1 日光引起流感
2 流感大流行出现在太阳黑子活动剧烈的年份
20.The following appeared in a letter to the editor of the Balmer Island
Gazette.

"The population of Balmer Island increases to 100,000 duing the summer
months. To reduce the number of accidents involving mopeds and
pedestrians, the town council of Balmer Island should limit the number of
mopeds rented by each of the island's six moped and bicycle rental
companies from 50 per day to 30 per day during the summer season. By
limiting the number of rentals, the town council is sure to attain the 50
percent reduction in moped accidents that was achieved last year in the
neighboring island of Torseau, when Torseau's town council enforced
similar limits on moped rentals."

Balmer Island的人口在夏季达到了100000。为减少由助力车和行人引发的事故，Balmer
Island市委应把本岛六个助力车和自行车出租公司的助力车出租数量在夏季从每天50辆限制到每天30辆。通过限制出租数量，市委肯定能够实现助力车事故减少50％的目标，就像去年邻岛Torseau市委实施了类似的对于助力车出租的限制后所达到的那样。限制出租车数量，实现助力车事故减少50%的目标
1减少出租车数量就能实现减少事故
A 人口增多
B 50辆限制到每天30辆。
2 学习邻岛Torseau市

strontium023UID：2316968

In the argument above, the arguer concludes that the recent decline in the economy is most likely the this year's unusually low expenditures on fitness-related products and services, and fitness levels will improve when the economy does , to make the deduction more clearly, conclusion could be divided into  following sub-ones.
1) Twenty years ago, one half of all citizens in Corpora met the standards for adequate physical fitness as then defined by the national advisory board on physical fitness.   
2) Today, the board says that only one quarter of all citizens are adequately fit and suggests that spending too much time using computers may be the reason.
3)  Overall fitness levels are highest in regions of Corpora where levels of computer ownership are also highest, it is clear that using computers has not made citizens less physically fit.(感觉用1.2.3的开头模式有些奇怪啊,而且开头太长了,显得头重脚轻.)
, after close scrutiny of the facts listed in the argument, little supports found existing facts could lend to above sub-conclusions.
    To illustrate the first sub-conclusion .the arguer cites the fact that twenty years ago event to sustain one half of all citizens in Corpora met the standards for adequate physical fitness. However, imagine that twenty years is a long period in order to change amount things. How could the result of survey still remain in nowadays?
     Even first sub-conclusion is founded, still , there is a weak connection between second sub-conclusion and spending too much time using computers may be the reason ,it is  possible that other reasons, for example ,pollution ,stress, and any other invisible.
     Finally, it is presumptuous to extrapolate Overall fitness levels are highest in regions of Corpora; perhaps the overall can not represent the average. There is no evidence to show that.(中间的论述段要加反例和自己的假设说明,会更加饱满充实一些.)
Consequently ，the conclusion lacks of credibility ,only the arguer provides more evidence to resolve the fallacies above, the argument could be persuasive.
小结:结构还算清晰,但欠饱满.

joyceningUID：2314914

最近总是迟交 不好意思