Argument49 【7.29模考，倒计时一天，请猛拍】

gyyxUID: 2290150

TOPIC: ARGUMENT49 - The following appeared in a letter to the editor of a newsletter on health issues.

"For the past decade, most health experts have advised teenagers to avoid eating greasy foods in order to prevent acne and related skin conditions, but the number of teenagers who sought medical help for these skin problems has actually risen over the same period. In a recent study, teenagers who avoided greasy foods for a month reported approximately as many outbreaks of acne and related skin conditions as did those who ate an average of two servings of greasy food per day. Such data indicate that eating greasy foods is unlikely to be a cause of acne and related skin conditions. Therefore, health experts should no longer recommend that people avoid such foods."
WORDS: 327          TIME: 00:30:00          DATE: 2007-7-29 14:38:20

Giving some evidence and some analyses, the author conclude that health experts should not recommend avoiding greasy foods any more. This argument seems to be sound and convictive on the surface, a close scrutiny reveals assumed relationship between the greasy food and skin conditions and other flaws, if we take another angle.

Primarily, the author make a false analysis between the relationship of the number of teenagers who sought medical help for these skin problems increase and the experts' suggestion avoiding greasy foods. Maybe these teenagers sought medical help do not follow the suggestion before, and after these foods control their problems solved. But the past decade is a population increasing period, so more and more teenagers suffer this problem. Moreover, even if the incidence of the skin problems remains the same, do not mean greasy food cause no effect to prevent skin problems. One possibility should not be excluded is that maybe the incidence is the same but the degree of the problem is on the decline due to the suggestion followed by the teenagers. Without particular statistic, we could not judge the conclusion recklessly.

Next, one month may be too little to be a frame to judge whether this suggestion is effective or not. As the experts have advised this method for ten years or even longer, we could assume that maybe a long period avoiding greasy food could prevent the skin problems. Additionally, many factors should be taken into consideration as a study involved complex factors. We are suffering from lack of information to identify this study's certainty as no details about the teenagers avoid greasy foods and the teenagers not. Maybe the ones ate greasy food per day suffers no skin problems before, attributed this to their gene, or perhaps the ones unworried skin problems caused by greasy foods have another way to avoid this problem just like medical cure. Or it is highly possible these two groups live in different climate, and the climate of the ones without the skin problems is good to skin. Since all these assumption could not be excluded, we could not conclude that eating greasy foods is unlikely to be a cause of acne and related skin conditions.

Finally, grant the author could substantiate all the assumption above, the recommendation avoiding all the people out of greasy food is not a wise suggestion. For teenagers, just possibility the skin problems caused by greasy food excluded, but other problems cause by greasy food just like obesity are harmful to them too. Another, for the adult, greasy food may be one factor influence one’s health, contributed to the high possibility to get heart problems and hypertension.

So, to summarize, this argument is fraught with assumption and false analyses. To bolster this, we need more details about the study and more statistics during last ten years. More scientific explanations to all age-group people should be provided if better.

huaxinluoboUID: 2326780

前两段总的来说写得不错，第二段开头如果再直接点或许更好。先写结论有问题，再写原因。第三段写得少了点，考试的时候把握好时间就没问题了。加油

njuzhshaoUID: 2258118

Giving some evidence and some analyses, the author conclude that health experts should not recommend avoiding greasy foods any more. This argument seems to be sound and convictive on the surface, a close scrutiny reveals assumed relationship between the greasy food and skin conditions and other flaws, if we take another angle.

Primarily, the author make a false analysis between the relationship of the number of teenagers who sought medical help for these skin problems increase and the experts' suggestion avoiding greasy foods. Maybe these teenagers sought medical help do not follow the suggestion before, and after these foods control their problems solved. 第一反例 But 用得有点奇怪,没看出来为什么 the past decade is a population increasing period, so more and more teenagers suffer this problem. 第二反例 Moreover, even if the incidence of the skin problems remains the same, do not mean greasy food cause no effect to prevent skin problems. One possibility should not be excluded is that maybe the incidence is the same but the degree of the problem is on the decline 第三反例due to the suggestion followed by the teenagers. Without particular statistic, we could not judge the conclusion recklessly. 三个例子举的好!

Next, one month may be too little to be a frame 第一个观点 to judge whether this suggestion is effective or not. As the experts have advised this method for ten years or even longer,观点的支撑物是建议 we could assume that maybe a long period avoiding greasy food could prevent the skin problems. Additionally, many factors should be taken into consideration as a study involved complex factors.第二个观点 We are suffering from lack of information to identify this study's certainty as no details about the teenagers avoid greasy foods and the teenagers not. Maybe the ones ate greasy food per day suffers no skin problems before, attributed this to their gene,反例一 or perhaps the ones unworried skin problems caused by greasy foods have another way to avoid this problem just like medical cure. 反例二 Or it is highly possible these two groups live in different climate, and the climate of the ones without the skin problems is good to skin. 反例三 Since all these assumption could not be excluded, 就是说这一句结的是后面一个观点? we could not conclude that eating greasy foods is unlikely to be a cause of acne and related skin conditions. 思路清晰,丰富的反例,不错.

Finally, grant the author could substantiate all the assumption above, the recommendation avoiding all the people out of greasy food is not a wise suggestion. For teenagers, just possibility the skin problems caused by greasy food excluded, but other problems cause by greasy food just like obesity are harmful to them too. Another, for the adult, greasy food may be one factor influence one’s health, contributed to the high possibility to get heart problems and hypertension. 两个例子又很好!

So, to summarize, this argument is fraught with assumption and false analyses. To bolster this, we need more details about the study and more statistics during last ten years. More scientific explanations to all age-group people should be provided if better.

这篇文章写得好,赞.逻辑和用例都很不错了。作者明天上场也要好好发挥啊，写出这样的文章就笑了。