Argument147 【0710G-HIT坚持交作业小组作文大帖】第一次作业

ambitionxxUID：2314730

     这是本人第一作业，为了更大的进步，让暴风雨来的更猛烈些，欲催弥坚，不要手下留情，希望大家猛拍！谢谢。

TOPIC: ARGUMENT147 - The following appeared in an editorial in a business magazine.
    "Although the sales of Whirlwind video games have declined over the past two years, a recent survey of video-game players suggests that this sales trend is about to be reversed. The survey asked video-game players what features they thought were most important in a video game. According to the survey, players prefer games that provide lifelike graphics, which require the most up-to-date computers. Whirlwind has just introduced several such games with an extensive advertising campaign directed at people 10 to 25 years old, the age-group most likely to play video games. It follows, then, that the sales of Whirlwind video games are likely to increase dramatically in the next few months."
WORDS: 363         TIME: 00:30:00          DATE: 2007-7-29 上午 10:39:48
提纲：1: 调查不可信
      2：竞争者的信息不够
      3：不知道是否是销售旺季而做出预测。
              In this argument, the editor concludes that the sales of Whirlwind video games are likely to increase dramatically in the next months. To support this conclusion the editor cited the result of the survey of the video-game player’s preference and      introduced several lifelike graphics game to the people 10 to 25 years old, the age-group most likely to play video game.      However, careful scrutiny of this argument would reveal how groundless it is.

               First, the editor provides no assurances that the survey on which the argument depends is statistically reliable. Maybe the survey of people couldn’t present the right people that are really desirous to play the kinds of video game. It is entirely   possible that the people are the middle age people, not the people 10 to 25 years old. If so, the editor’s conclusion was         unwarranted.

             Second, we can't get enough information about the opponent. Even though the survey is conceiving, the editor knows nothing about the competitor. As we all know that people who want to succeed in the business must know much information  about the opponent. Maybe the opposite have sold this game at a very cheap price. However, the editor fails to provide        enough evidences to sustain this conclusion, so I couldn’t believe it.   

           Thirdly, we can't conclude that the video game will increase the next few months. As we all know that every product has his hot season besides the video-game. Maybe this and next month, people don't like to play game. More badly, the video game may decline in the next few months. So we can't expect that the video games are likely to increase dramatically in the    next few months until we know that the next few months are the hot season.

         From the above analysis, the argument is not persuasive as it stands. To make it more conceiving, the editor would have to provide more evidence concerning. First he must let me know that which group is surveyed. In addition, he should provide more information about the competitor. Finally, he must know which season is the best season for the video-game. If told      more information about above, I can get the conclusion more confidently.



[ 本帖最后由 ambitionxx 于 2007-7-30 13:39 编辑 ]

BBBWUID：2144108

刚看了下开头段，这样开头有无没啥区别，如果从正文中抽逻辑框架的话完全可以忽略之，
建议读下老斑竹imong关于argu开头的文章

https://bbs.gter.net/viewthread.php?tid=134092

ambitionxxUID：2314730

谢谢！ 第一次写ARGUMENT，能得到你的建议，很高兴。你的建议很好，写argument的时候更多的是要找逻辑错误，回去改也！

BBBWUID：2144108

就第一次来说， 已经不错了~^_^~

你的文章有很重的北范风格。
“写argument的时候更多的是要找逻辑错误”，不尽然，
自己行文的逻辑和组织相当重要

[ 本帖最后由 BBBW 于 2007-7-30 22:29 编辑 ]

xsr6064UID：2312664

似乎找不出什么特别的问题，结构，逻辑错误和论述都很清晰，语言也很不错，学习了