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TOPIC: ARGUMENT147 - The following appeared in an editorial in a business magazine.
"Although the sales of Whirlwind video games have declined over the past two years, a recent survey of video-game players suggests that this sales trend is about to be reversed. The survey asked video-game players what features they thought were most important in a video game. According to the survey, players prefer games that provide lifelike graphics, which require the most up-to-date computers. Whirlwind has just introduced several such games with an extensive advertising campaign directed at people 10 to 25 years old, the age-group most likely to play video games. It follows, then, that the sales of Whirlwind video games are likely to increase dramatically in the next few months."
冲忙中,只能用中文提纲,语言邋遢,排砖时大家不要留情。
用于网络原因,晚了几分钟,十分对不住,请见谅。
提纲:
Para 1 : 陈述情况
Para 2 : 指出该文章没有对公司前两年销售下滑的原因进行分析。
Para 3 : 指出其样本不够大,并且没有考虑该人群的消费能力。
Para 4 : 指出公司应考虑其它能够使游戏成功的因素,而不仅仅是画面
In this argument , the editorial say that the declining sale situation of Whirlwind video games will revice after their market survey , in which they found that the lifelike graphics is a most important feature appriciated by current video game player , and because the company just has several such products directed at people 10 to 25 years old , the writer conclude confidently that the sales of Whirlwind video games will increase in next few months . However, I find this argument suspicious in several respects .
First , the auther simply relies on the assumption that the new products and advertising campaign will solve the two-year decline in Whirlwind's sales , but fail to fully analyze all the factors that lead this concequence . Indeed , besides the factors disscussed above there are others such as poor management and service or unreasonable price would eventually lead this decline . Moreover , the company did not give us any evidence that its new products and advertising stratege have more advantages than the competitors' do . So wo have enough reasons to doubt that the Whirlwind's new plan will be effective untill the auther give us more detail evidences.
Secondly , the argument do not provide assurances for the data of this survey . In other words , the group of people in this survey is confined in the extent from 10 to 25 years old , which account for a relatively small part of the whole population , thus it can not entirely represent the market condition . Even this group of people can relect the real condition of the game market , the company may ignore these people's capability to consume its products . As the writer indicate in the passage , the new type of game with lifelike graphics require the most up-to-date computers , and there are seldom people in this age group can afford the cost by themselves . Unless the auther can give the evidence that most of parents are willing to buy such expensive computer to their children for playing game , I can not be convined that the company's sales can revise .
Finally , Although the graphic is a important part of a excellent game , the company may fail to see other indispensible parts , such as the story , fighting system , difficulty and the
interaction with partners . Only with the beautiful graphics but lacking of other elements , the game can not obtain continuous success in the severe competition . The tenth editon of the "Final fantasy"(a series of games) is such a failed example .
In conclusion , the aruger fails to establish a reasonable relationship between their survey and the sale recover . To strengthen the argument ,the auther would have to provide more analysis which include the reasons of leading the two-year sales decline , and give clear evidence that the people who are 10 to 25 years old would be interested in their new products and the company can really gain profits depenging on this group of people . Besides , he need to consider other factors in a successful game , and find their advantages over its compititors as well.
[ 本帖最后由 xsr6064 于 2007-7-30 20:14 编辑 ] |
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