argument147 [0710G summer] by niuzhist

niuzhistUID: 2363220

TOPIC: ARGUMENT147 - The following appeared in an editorial in a business magazine.
"Although the sales of Whirlwind video games have declined over the past two years,
a recent survey of video-game players suggests that this sales trend is about to be
reversed. The survey asked video-game players what features they thought were most
important in a video game. According to the survey, players prefer games that provide
lifelike graphics, which require the most up-to-date computers. Whirlwind has just
introduced several such games with an extensive advertising campaign directed at people
10 to 25 years old, the age-group most likely to play video games. It follows, then,
that the sales of Whirlwind video games are likely to increase dramatically in the next
few months."
提纲：1. A two-year decline of the sales might result from a lot of factors.
         The video games’ shortcomings, bad advertisement, other competitive products,
         a survey about the harm of the games.
      2.the age range of the people who play video games should not be limited only to 10 to 25.
        Not the the key demographic group.
      3.the survey about the video-games' features made by the company has a little relativity
        to the conclusion taken by the author
        other features: story-line sound effect
      4.the most up-to-date computers are high at the price.
        Cannot afford to buy it
        2 和4也可写在一起。
WORDS: 436       TIME: 00:45:00        
In the author's argument,he  makes a conclusion that after a decline in the past two years ,the
sales of Whirlwind video games is going to reverse, and the sales are likely to rise
dramatically in the next few months. The perspective seems rational and logical. But
after a deeper thought, I assert that the editorial is based on some poor supporoted evidence
and unfounded assumption which suffers from several fallacies.
First of all, the author makes a fallacy of false cause.

A two-year decline of the sales may result from a lot of factors, not just the
video game's lack of lifelike graphics. The video games may be boring or be short
of excitement and adventure. Or perhaps, the expenditure on  advertisement over the
past two years was not enough to captivate the customers. Or perhaps, there are a lot of
other competitive video games at lower price or with extra features so that the sales
declines naturally. Maybe a survey about the harm to people's eyes caused by the
video games lowers people's enthusiasm with the games, then the sales declines undoubtedly.
Since the author has not made the cause of decline clearly, I am still specious about the
new plan will reverse the past case.

Besides, the author makes another fallacy of baised-Sample.The age range of the people who
play video games should not be limitedonly to 10 to 25.It is not certain that this age-group
is the key demographic group.For that matter, the advertising campaign about several
new games directed at people 10 to 25 years old can't attract the real majority of the
players. So, this action may have a little function on increasing the sales. Furthermore,
video games with lifelikegraphics require the most up-to-date computers which may be high
at the price. Many people,especially for the youth, could not afford to buy such computers
so that they don't have the opportunity to play the video games, let alone buying it.Without
addressing there problem given above,I can not be easily convinced that the author's conclusion
is persuative.

Thirdly,I also have to point out that the survey about the video-games' features made by
the company has a little relativity to the conclusion taken by the author. Lifelike
graphics is only one of the important features which may attract the players, there are
many other factors be taken into account. For  example ,the story -line of the games
must be fascinating and be suspensive , the sound effect should be excellent and compatible
with the proceeding of the story. as is shown above,I cannot be convinced by the forecast
that the sales is about to increase dramatically in the next few months.

To sum up, I must admit definitely that  the editorial is unconvincing
made by the author who regards a lot of things . If we want to make  the argument more cogent
the author must provide more information about the real key demographic of the players, the main reason
attributable to the decline of the sales and what competitive features the new video games have and other
companies' products' characteristic.