argument65 【0710G-小猪快跑小组】第5次作业 By jojogaotian

jojogaotianUID: 2189450

题目：ARGUMENT65 - The following appeared in a memo from the president of a chain of cheese stores located throughout the United States.

"For many years all the stores in our chain have stocked a wide variety of both domestic and imported cheeses. Last year, however, the five best-selling cheeses at our newest store were all domestic cheddar cheeses from Wisconsin. Furthermore, a recent survey by Cheeses of the World magazine indicates an increasing preference for domestic cheeses among its subscribers. Since our company can reduce expenses by limiting inventory, the best way to improve profits in all of our stores is to discontinue stocking many of our varieties of imported cheese and concentrate primarily on domestic cheeses."
字数：505          用时：00:30:33          日期：2007-8-3 下午 04:30:08

This argument is well-presented, but thoroughly not well-reasoned. To support, the speaker points out that domestic cheeses were sold better in its newest store. Also he cited a survey to show the popularity of domestic cheeses. However, after further examination, I find the recommendation to increase domestic cheeses' stock to improve profits is unconvincing in several respects.

The argument is based on a hasty assumption that domestic cheeses are more welcome than imported ones, but it fails to provide any accurate evidence to support it. The mere fact that domestic cheddar cheeses from Wisconsin were best-selling cheeses in newest store cannot directly lead to the result. It might be the case that majority people in the district of newest store like the taste of domestic cheeses, which is totally contrary with people in other areas. If it is such case, other districts' residents prefer imported cheeses, thereby unwilling to purchase domestic ones at all. Or, it might be the case that the domestic cheeses in newest store were on sale, and their cheaper prices enticed most consumers. But after the sale, perhaps customers would be more willing to but imported ones, which are more delicious. Besides, last year is too short a period to representative the future trends. It is entirely possible that in the next few years, imported cheeses will become more popular because of their more favorable tastes and cheaper prices than domestic ones. Thus, consumers would increasingly buy imported ones instead of domestic ones.

In addition, the survey's reliability and generalizability is open to question. How broad the survey was? Perhaps the respondents were merely limited in customers of certain ages, such as teenagers, or people in certain districts, where a domestic cheese company locates. Or perhaps the survey was limited in certain tastes of cheeses, which are only produced by domestic cheese companies. Thus, clearly customers would prefer domestic products because foreign companies do not produce them at all. 注意调查的时态用过去时！

Finally, the conclusion that to improve profit the stores should increase the stocks of domestic cheeses instead of imported ones is made hastily. There is no evidence to show the costs and prices of both types of cheeses in future markets. It is entirely possible that the row materials to make cheese in the U.S. would dramatically increase, while the price will be lower. Thus the profits to sell domestic cheeses would decline. Also, perhaps in future, foreign companies will create some new type of cheeses, which are not only delicious but also cheap, thereby taking up most of the markets. If it is such case, to increase  stocking domestic produces is not a wise choice.

To sum up, the argument, while it seems logical at first, has several flaws as discussed above. To bolster his recommendation, the speaker should provide more information about situation of both domestic cheeses and imported ones in future market, such as their prices, costs, and the conceivable future consumers' preferences. Besides, he also needs to point out the reliability and generalizability of the survey before evaluation.