argument48 【勇往直前】

nornsUID：2325187

"Twenty years ago, one half of all citizens in Corpora met the standards for adequate physical fitness as then defined by the national advisory board on physical fitness. Today, the board says that only one quarter of all citizens are adequately fit and suggests that spending too much time using computers may be the reason. But since overall fitness levels are highest in regions of Corpora where levels of computer ownership are also highest, it is clear that using computers has not made citizens less physically fit. Instead, as shown by this year's unusually low expenditures on fitness-related products and services, the recent decline in the economy is most likely the cause, and fitness levels will improve when the economy does."
WORDS: 409          TIME: 00:30:00          DATE: 2007-7-31 20:44:28


Firstly, the author's evidence and reasoning to against the board's suggestion that using computer is the main cause of low fitness level is not persuasive. Although the computer levels and the fitness levels are both the highest, it can not exclude the effect of computers. Maybe all the cities, though the extent varies, are affected by the time consuming on computers. And the city might suffered from it much less, so that it ranks top both in level of computers and of fitness. However, the author does not provide enough evidence to exclude the possibility.

Secondly, even if the reason of low level of fitness has nothing to do with computers, the autor failed to convince us that the drop of expenditures is the main reason. First, the level of fitness changes slow every year, for example, if you have a strong body this year, the possibility that your body is remarkablly less strong the next year is not that obvious. And the trend of drop, according to the information given, has lasted 20 years, however, the decrease in expenditure of fitness only happened recently. So the drop of sales on fitness is not likely a main reason of it. Based on this, the author's conclusion does not hold. What's more, as we know, the level of fitness has more to do with diet and exercise. The drop of expenditures on fitness is insufficient for i.

What's more, given that the drop of expenditures is the main reason of low fitness level, we are not sure whether the drop of sales is caused by economy. In fact, there are many possibable cause can make a drop in the sales of fitness. Maybe the citizens here think these instrument and services are of little use about buiding a strong body, and outside sports like jogging, which requires no services, are regarded as more valuable. Therefore, the author shoud provide more information to convince that the drop in economy is the main reason.


Finally, even if what is abovementioned holds true, we are insufficient to predict that when economy improves the fitness levels would also does. In the future, things could be different, maybe the citizens think that the expenditures are not quited useful, so that they do not buy it at all. Or simply when the economy increases, people have even less time for exercise. In these cause, the level of fitness would not rise. The author's prediction is not sounded.

nornsUID：2325187

1"Twenty years ago, one half of all citizens in Corpora met the standards for adequate physical fitness as then defined by the national advisory board on physical fitness. Today, the board says that only one quarter of all citizens are adequately fit and suggests that spending too much time using computers may be the reason. 1But since overall fitness levels are highest in regions of Corpora where levels of computer ownership are also highest, it is clear that using computers has not made citizens less physically fit. Instead, 2as shown by this year's unusually low expenditures on fitness-related products and services, the recent decline in the economy is most likely the cause, and fitness levels will improve when the economy does."
WORDS: 409          TIME: 00:30:00          DATE: 2007-7-31 20:44:28


[Firstly, the author's evidence and reasoning to against the board's suggestion that using computer is the main cause of low fitness level is not persuasive](eliminate). Although the computer levels and the fitness levels are both the highest, it can not exclude the effect of computers. Maybe in all the cities, though the extent varies, the level of fitness is still affected by the time consuming on computers and. [And] But the [city] Corpra might suffered from it much less than other cities, so that it ranks top both in level of computers and of fitness.[ However] If so, using computer can still be a reason for the decline of the level of fitness. And this can not fully support the author's idea. [the author does not provide enough evidence to exclude the possibility].

Secondly, even if the reason of low level of fitness has nothing to do with computers, the autor failed to convince us that the drop of expenditures is the main reason of low fitness level. First, the level of fitness changes slow every year, for example, if you have a strong body this year, the possibility that your body is remarkablly less strong the next year is not that obvious. And the trend of drop, according to the information given, has lasted 20 years, however, the decrease in expenditure of fitness only happened recently. So the drop of sales on fitness is not likely a main reason of it. Based on this, the author's conclusion does not hold. What's more,the author failed to rull out other possibilities. as we know, the level of fitness has more to do with diet and exercise. The drop of expenditures on fitness is insufficient for i.

【What's more, given that the drop of expenditures is the main reason of low fitness level】, [we are not sure whether the drop of sales is caused by economy] It is not convincible that the decling economy causes the drop of expenditures on fitness. In fact, the author failed to exclude other possibilities[there are many possibable cause can make a drop in the sales of fitness.] Maybe the citizens here think these instrument and services are of little use about buiding a strong body, and outside sports like jogging, which requires no services, are regarded as more valuable. In this case, even if the economy maitanined in high level, it is also possible that citizens pay less on fitness-related instruments.Therefore, the author shoud provide more information to convince that the drop in economy is the main reason.


Finally, even if what is abovementioned holds true, we are insufficient to predict that when economy improves the fitness levels would also does. In the future, [things could be different]situations might change, maybe at that time [the] citizens' ideas have changed and they might regard [that] the expenditures [are] not quite useful, so that they do not buy it at all. Or simply when the economy increases, people have even less time for exercisethe work intensity of citizens also increases so that they are too tired and have even less time for fitness, in which case they are certainly no longer willing to waste money on it. In these cause, the level of fitness would not rise. The author's prediction is not sounded.


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