argument65 【勇往直前】

nornsUID：2325187

TOPIC: ARGUMENT65 - The following appeared in a memo from the president of a chain of cheese stores located throughout the United States.

"For many years all the stores in our chain have stocked a wide variety of both domestic and imported cheeses. Last year, however, the five best-selling cheeses at our newest store were all domestic cheddar cheeses from Wisconsin. Furthermore, a recent survey by Cheeses of the World magazine indicates an increasing preference for domestic cheeses among its subscribers. Since our company can reduce expenses by limiting inventory, the best way to improve profits in all of our stores is to discontinue stocking many of our varieties of imported cheese and concentrate primarily on domestic cheeses."
WORDS: 499          TIME: 00:30:00          DATE: 2007-8-7 12:00:28

By the sales condition of a shop and a survey of a magazine, the author concludes that we should change all our stockings and focus mainly on the domestic cheeses. The author's suggestion suffers from two insufficient evidences and one incomplete consideration so that it is not convincible.

That five best-selling cheeses at the newest store can not indicate the trend that domestic cheeses sells better. The author drew this conclusion too hastily without enough information. First, the single case of last year is insufficient for a convincible production it is entirely possible that last year the country from where our cheeses are imported suffered from a deadly epidemic. So that citizens temporally turned to domestic ones for a substitution. If so, when situations turned better in these foreign countries, the sells of domestic cheeses might drop. What's more, the conclusion is drawn from the newest store, which might not be applied to the general case. Commense tells us that it is possible that people in particular areas favor certain kinds of food, cheese included, maybe people around the new store cited in the evidence favor these domestic kinds. Or it is possible that the new store is opened near Widconsin, where the cheeses are produced so that people in that place are proud of cheese from their hometown and make them as the first priority. Once again the author failed to rule out these possibilities. So the author should get more information on the sells conditions of cheeses.

Furthermore, the survey on the magazine is not representative. First of all statistically how many people received the survey is unknown. Maybe the author intended to conceal the fact that he is using a survey of 100 people to predict the willingness of the nation. If so, the result is quite dubious. For further analysis people who subscribe this magazine might share the common characters of having more concern on cheese. And they, maybe from the magazine itself, know that the domestic cheeses are much healthier and cheaper. However the other common people might be under the illusion that the imported cheeses are much better. If so, the magazine cannot represent the common will.

What's more, even if people favor domestic cheeses the author's final suggestion might not be profitable. First of all, whether the suggestion can be applied to all shops are in doubt. It is possible in some particular areas people are more likely to buy the imported one. What's more, the author gave no information on the exact data of sales and the profit of each kind of cheeses. It is possible that imported ones are higher in profit and the number of sales is only lower slightly. If so, by balancing the two factors, continuing selling imported cheeses might bring in more money.

To sum up, the author failed to make the argument convincible. To better support the idea he should provide more information showing that domestic cheeses are more welcome and his suggestion is profitable as well.