ARGUMENT38 【HIT】求拍

mablaUID：2312557

TOPIC: ARGUMENT38 - The following memo appeared in the newsletter of the West Meria Public Health Council.

"An innovative treatment has come to our attention that promises to significantly reduce absenteeism in our schools and workplaces. A study reports that in nearby East Meria, where fish consumption is very high, people visit the doctor only once or twice per year for the treatment of colds. Clearly, eating a substantial amount of fish can prevent colds. Since colds are the reason most frequently given for absences from school and work, we recommend the daily use of Ichthaid, a nutritional supplement derived from fish oil, as a good way to prevent colds and lower absenteeism."
P1 开头
P2 看病少可能是因为没钱看不起；
P3不能证明感冒少和吃鱼是因果关系
P4鱼油可能不是有效物质；即使鱼油是有效物质，提炼Ichthaid可能损害有效物质；
P5 感冒可能只是藉口
P6总结


WORDS: 451          TIME: 00:37:00          DATE: 2007-8-7 22:14:35

The author of memo make a recommend to take lchthaid daily as a good way to prevent colds and lower absenteeism, mainly on the assumption that eatting fish can prevent colds and cold is the main cause of absenteeism. Unfortunately, both assumptions are not convincing according the information given in the memo.
     To begin with, it is illogical to conclude that eating fish and lower occurence of  cold has a cause and effect relationship from a study of East Meria, where these people both eat a lot of fish and seldom to see the doctor for the treat ment of cold. Firstly, the people seldom see a doctor for the treatment does not necessary mean that people there are less likely to get cold. Maybe they have cold as frequent as other part of the world and are only reluctant to see the doctor. It may be the case if they simply can not afford the cost to see the doctor and choose to see the doctor only when the cold is very severe.
     Secondly, suppose it is true that people in East Meria are less likely to get cold, it is not suffice to prove that the co-relation of lower cold occurrence is caused by high fish consumption. There may be various factors to cause the lower frequency of getting cold, the unique weather conditions, the special genes of people there, and the living habits of residents. And it is possible that eating fish has nothing to do with lower frequency of getting cold, and they are by chance appear at the same time.

    And even if eating fish is the cause of low frequency of getting cold, the fish oil, from which lchthaid is derived, is not the effective substance. It is quite possible that other substances in the body but not the in the fish oil is the real substance that have the magic effect of preventing colds. Moreover, even the fish oil contains the useful substance to prevent colds, the process of deriving lchthaid from fish oil may damage the substance and therefore taking lchthaid daily will not have the effect just as eating fish can do.
    Finally, cold may not be the real reason for absence. People may use it just as a excuse, so that even use of lchthaid can prevent colds, it will not prevent lower absenteeism as expected.
    To sum up, the assumption of the advice given by author are too weak to support the advice and the conclusion is not convincing until more proofs given to prove the cause and effect relationship between eating fish and preventing cold, the same effectiveness of the taking lchthaid and eating fish, and the other important detials.

[ 本帖最后由 mabla 于 2007-8-7 23:04 编辑 ]

ambitionxxUID：2314730

The author of memo make a recommend to take lchthaid daily as a good way to prevent colds and lower absenteeism, mainly on the assumption that eatting（eating） fish can prevent(s) colds and cold is the main cause of absenteeism. Unfortunately, both assumptions are not convincing according the information given in the memo.     To begin with, it is illogical to conclude that eating fish and lower occurence (occurrence)of  cold has a cause and effect relationship from a study of East Meria, where these people both eat a lot of fish and seldom to see the doctor for the treat ment of cold. Firstly, the people seldom see a doctor for the treatment does not necessary mean that people there are less likely to get cold. Maybe they have cold as frequent as other part of the world and are only reluctant to see the doctor. It may be the case if they simply can not afford the cost to see the doctor and choose to see the doctor only when the cold is very severe.     Secondly, suppose it is true that people in East Meria are less likely to get cold, it is not suffice to prove that the co-relation of lower cold occurrence is caused by high fish consumption. There may be various factors to cause the lower frequency of getting cold, the unique weather conditions, the special genes of people there, and the living habits of residents. (其实这里可以继续往细节深入，具体参考范文)And it is possible that eating fish has nothing to do with lower frequency of getting cold, and they are by chance appear at the same time.    And even if eating fish is the cause of low frequency of getting cold, the fish oil, from which lchthaid is derived, is not the effective substance. It is quite possible that other substances in the body but not the in the fish oil is the real substance that have the magic effect of preventing colds. Moreover, even the fish oil contains the useful substance to prevent colds, the process of deriving lchthaid from fish oil may damage the substance and therefore taking lchthaid daily will not have the effect just as eating fish can do.    Finally, cold may not be the real reason for absence. People may use it just as a excuse, so that even use of lchthaid can prevent colds, it will not prevent lower absenteeism as expected.（同上）    To sum up, the assumption of the advice given by author are too weak to support the advice and the conclusion is not convincing until more proofs given to prove the cause and effect relationship between eating fish and preventing cold, the same effectiveness of the taking lchthaid and eating fish, and the other important detials.
逻辑很清楚！