Argument65 [0710G-恐怖9.11小组] 第8次作业

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Argument65: 678 words
The following appeared in a memo from the president of a chain of cheese stores located throughout the United States.
'For many years all the stores in our chain have stocked a wide variety of both domestic and imported cheeses. Last year, however, the five best-selling cheeses at our newest store were all domestic cheddar cheeses from Wisconsin. Furthermore, a recent survey by Cheeses of the World magazine indicates an increasing preference for domestic cheeses among its subscribers. Since our company can reduce expenses by limiting inventory, the best way to improve profits in all of our stores is to discontinue stocking many of our varieties of imported cheese and concentrate primarily on domestic cheeses.'

In this memo, the president of a chain of cheese stores nationwide recommends that in order to increase profitability, the company should cut down the storage of imported cheese to concentrate on domestic ones. To justify this proposal the president cites the fact that at their newest store, five domestic cheeses have been sold the best last year. The author also mentions a survey conducted by the Cheese of the World magazine to suggest that the demand for domestic cheese is increasing. Clear scrutiny, however, reveals that the argument is flawed in several respects.

First of all, the five best-selling cheeses in the newest store do not necessarily indicate the preference of the customers nationwide. We are not informed the selling record besides these five kinds of cheese. Lacking such information, it is entirely possible that the sell of imported cheese are generally better than the domestic ones. Neither are we informed situation in the old stores. Perhaps foreign cheeses are all more profitable than the domestic ones in the old stores throughout the country. Or perhaps, the new store has designed some publicity campaign to promote the local cheeses which leads to their popularities. Without ruling out these alternative explanations for the seemingly good sell record of the five domestic cheeses in the newest store, or more detailed information about the situation in other stores as well as other kinds of cheeses, the author could not convince me that the fad now is toward domestic cheese.

Even assuming that the situation in the newest store mirrors the overall trend throughout the nation, the argument's reliance on the further assumption that this trend will remain the same in the unforeseeable future is still unjustified. Perhaps this trend will reverse itself to foreign cheese soon for whatever reason. If this is the case, then the decision of concentrating on domestic cheese will become a deterrent to earn profits.

The argument's reliance on the survey conducted by the magazine is also problematic in two respects. First, the author does not reveal the demographic profile of the subscribers of the magazine which makes it unconvincing. Without evidence of the contrary, it is wholly possible that the main readers of the magazine are entrepreneurs of cheese companies, and do not wish to buy cheese at all. Or perhaps the subscribers include a considerable number of foreigners, whose preferences has nothing to do with this chain of cheese stores in the U.S. Either scenarios, if true, will serve to undermine the argument's reliance on the survey. Secondly, we are not informed the size of the survey and the percentage of subscribers of the magazine responded to the survey; the lower the percentage, the less reliable the result of the survey. In sum the author need to provide more detailed information about the process of the survey, otherwise it lends scant advice to the decision.

Even if the result of the survey can be applied to the chain, the argument is still unsubstantiated since the president suggests that adopting the strategy of reducing the storage of foreign cheeses is the best way to earn profits. The proposal based on the assumption that no better method to attain the same effect is available. Nevertheless, the author provides no evidence to justify this assumption. Besides, reducing expenses may not suffice by itself to improve profits. It is common sense that profitability is a function of both revenue and expense. Without weighing revenue against expense, the author cannot conclude that the chains will earn more profits based on the reduction of expenditure resulted from cutting down the storage of foreign cheeses.

In conclusion, the argument suffers many flaws which render it unconvincing as it stands. To bolster it, the author should provide more detailed information about the sell records of all the stores of the chain throughout the country as well as the reliability of the survey conducted by the magazine. To modify the proposal, the president also needs to take into account alternative approaches to increase profitability and thorough cost and revenue estimates of the company.

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