Argument38【0806G desperado小组】第九次作业by坐照

wangyu0920UID: 199396

TOPIC: ARGUMENT38 - The following memo appeared in the newsletter of the West Meria Public Health Council.

"An innovative treatment has come to our attention that promises to significantly reduce absenteeism in our schools and workplaces. A study reports that in nearby East Meria, where fish consumption is very high, people visit the doctor only once or twice per year for the treatment of colds. Clearly, eating a substantial amount of fish can prevent colds. Since colds are the reason most frequently given for absences from school and work, we recommend the daily use of Ichthaid, a nutritional supplement derived from fish oil, as a good way to prevent colds and lower absenteeism."
WORDS: 390         DATE: 2007-12-17 17:09:01

1.         每年一两次去医院看感冒并不代表每年只患一两次感冒
2.         没有证据和研究表明吃鱼与预防感冒有直接的联系
3.         没有证据说明感冒确实是缺席上课和工作的主要原因
4.         Ichthaid能否起到与吃鱼相同的效果没有被证实

In this argument, the arguer recommends using Ichthaid every day to prevent colds and lower absenteeism. To support this assertion the arguer points out that people who consume large amount of fish nearby East Meria visit the doctor only once or twice per year for treatment of colds. Meanwhile, the arguer also claims that eating a substantial amount of fish can prevent colds and that the main reason for absences from school and work is cold. However, I find this argument statistacally unreliable and logically unconvincing for several aspects.

First of all, the arguer fails to provide any information to prove that all the people visit the doctor for treatment once they catch a cold. Perhaps many people heal themselves by taking pills rather than visit the doctor since the cold is such a common disease that it is unnecessary to visit the doctor.

Secondly, even if all the people visit the doctor when they catch a cold, there is not any convincing evidence to demonstrate that eating a substantial and large amount of fish can prevent colds. As we all know, fish can not be the only food for the people near East Meria, perhaps it is other kinds of food or other factors that resist the cold. We can not get this conclusion unless there is further evidence to detail the relation between fish and cold.

Moreover, even though eating fish can prevent colds, the arguer provides scant evidence that colds are the main reason for absences from school and work. Experience informs us that colds maybe the most widely given reason while not the real reason. Lacking additional study or survey on the actual reason for absences, I can not accept the arguer's assertion.

Finally, even if all the absences are due to colds, the arguer fails to take into account the differences between Ichthaid and fish. It is entirely possible that the nutritional supplement derived from fish oil has little effects of preventing colds.

In conclusion, the argument is unconvincing as it stands. To strengthen the it, the arguer must provide clear evidence that (1) people in East Meria truly seldom catch a cold (2) eating a substantial amount of fish really can prevent colds (3) the main reason for absences from school and work is cold (4) Ichthaid can prevent cold as well as fish