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回复 #1 shelden 的帖子
TOPIC: ISSUE120 - "So much is new and complex today that looking back for an understanding of the past provides little guidance for living in the present."
WORDS: 401(45分内 修改后570) TIME: 00:45:00 DATE: 2007-12-27 11:01:30
It is such a fast-changing world, with the feature that huge amounts of new things are appearing everyday in a dramatic speed. In this case, the author of this article claims that an understanding of the past supplies only a little guidance for the things now, which I partly agree. In my point of view, we should take both the information of past and the changing of present in to consideration.
The thought of human (the civilization of human beings)are built on the basic of historical analyze. The sky was grey, later on it rained. Our ancestors memorized the order of the two things, and they conclude that when the sky is grey, it will rain. Such things are inveterate(?) in deep of the way that our brains(may be deleted) think, which may be due to subconsciousness and is difficult to transform. In this case, whether you accept or not, the way you judge things (a new one) depends on the things before full or less.
In almost all the realms, it is unbelievable for someone to draw a new and important conclusion without being familiar with the results before. In some way, certain development of science could be considered as a process of building a ladder (on former’s shoulder) to the truth. The comer should (“and have to” may be deleted)and have to go though (through) the step which his precursor made in the early time, standing on the top of the ladder, and then he could create his own step-the achievement in some certain realm. (觉得简洁些会更好些) For instance, Newton had such an outstanding accomplishment on natural science, but he just said he was on the shoulder of the giant before him. "I'm a child playing on the see bond accidently find the beautiful shells", also said by Newton. So it's necessary to pay attention to history because it can enlighten us with some ideas and help us to be better.
Also, we cannot totally independent (dependent)and rely on (二者可以省一个) the things in the past. Just as mentioned above, the world is changing in a rapid way(speed), if we fail to realize the difference between the present and the past, losers will be us. Tom and Mary is a couple. Tom goes back home at five o'clock everyday accurately. But one day, Tom had not arrived home at six o'clock, which lead Mary uncomfortable and she guessed something bad would happen, so she called the police. Finally, Tom appeared at seven o'clock depending on two reasons: first, his new boss showed up today, and arranged a meeting. Also, there was a new bus line and Tom tried it today. All these things had been told to Mary yesterday, but she failed to take them into account so the unnecessary result comes. It is just a common and usual example which the things resembling that happen everyday. If the way of thinking becomes more flexible and sensitive to new things, the correct rate of decision would be higher.(新颖,呵呵)
There is a classical theory in the discipline of statistics called Bayes Estimation. It innovatively unites the information of experience and the data of new samples together to estimate the parameters which draw a comparatively better conclusion. In a not dissimilar way, we can judge things in “Bayes” way, the result would be much better.(觉得有点怪?)
呵呵,加油。 |
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