［杀G精锐部队］第2次作业 by hyulla

hyullaUID: 2273514

TOPIC: ARGUMENT147 - The following appeared in an editorial in a business magazine.

"Although the sales of Whirlwind video games have declined over the past two years, a recent survey of video-game players suggests that this sales trend is about to be reversed. The survey asked video-game players what features they thought were most important in a video game. According to the survey, players prefer games that provide lifelike graphics, which require the most up-to-date computers. Whirlwind has just introduced several such games with an extensive advertising campaign directed at people 10 to 25 years old, the age-group most likely to play video games. It follows, then, that the sales of Whirlwind video games are likely to increase dramatically in the next few months."


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In this argument the arguer conclude that the sales of whirlwind video games are likely to increase dramatically in the next months. To support the conclusion, the arguer cites the result of a recent survey that player prefer lifelike graphic games which require the most up-to-date computers. In addition, he indicates that whirlwind has just introduced several such games with an extensive advertising campaign directed at people 10 to 25, the age-group that most likely to play video games. The argument is weakened by several critical fallacies.

The major problem with this argument is that the survey of video games-as mentioned in the argument-is doubtable. The arguer fails to showed the age-group of players which were asked in the survey. If players who took part in the survey are aged between 30 to 80, then the extensive adverting campaign directed at people 10 to 25 made little sense. In this case , the increase of Whirlwind video games’ sales is still not for sure. Moreover, the question asked in the survey is loaded question. The players in the survey might not interested in video games, then it is no causal relationship between the survey and the sales of whirlwind video games. In the absence of such information, it is impossible to accept the arguer’s assertion that the sales of Whirlwind video games are likely to increase.

Second, the arguer fails to take into account the effectiveness of advertising campaign. He does not provide any evidence that whether most player between 10 to 25 can afford the most up-to-date computers and how many percent players have the most up-to-date computers. It is true that people 10 to 25 most likely to play video games, however, as it known to everyone, people who is aged 10 to 25 is lower consumers. They are not totally independent on consumption. Therefore, I simply can not be swayed by the prediction that Whirlwind video games is about to experience a dramatic increase in sales.

Finally ,the argument is rest on the assumption that the two years decline of Whirlwind video games’ sales will be easily solved by Whirlwind’s introduction of its new games. Yet , it is possible that other factors such as poor management or imprudent pricing resulted in the decline of sales. Unless the arguer can rule out such possibilities , I can be convinced that Whirlwind’s new strategy will reverse that decline at all.

In sum, the argument is not persuasive as it stands. To strengthen the argument, the arguer would have to provide more information concerning the age of players in the survey and the feasibility of the new strategy. Additionally, the arguer should rule out other causes of the decline sales.

[ 本帖最后由 liyue24 于 2007-12-31 22:26 编辑 ]