【AERO小组第八次作业】ARGUMENT47

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一个月前写的东西了。 估计问题比较严重！！！


题目：ARGUMENT47 - Scientists studying historical weather patterns have discovered that in the mid-sixth century, Earth suddenly became significantly cooler. Although few historical records survive from that time, some accounts found both in Asia and Europe mention a dimming of the sun and extremely cold temperatures. Either a huge volcanic eruption or a large meteorite colliding with Earth could have created a large dust cloud throughout Earth's atmosphere that would have been capable of blocking enough sunlight to lower global temperatures significantly. A large meteorite collision, however, would probably create a sudden bright flash of light, and no extant historical records of the time mention such a flash. Some surviving Asian historical records of the time, however, mention a loud boom that would be consistent with a volcanic eruption. Therefore, the cooling was probably caused by a volcanic eruption.
字数：488          用时：00:47:39          日期：2007-12-24 17:20:37
  In this argument, the author cites the evidence that cooling in earth during previous time must be attributable to a volcanic eruption. Another piece of evidence presented to support the argument is that after a large meteorite collision, large dust cloud throughout Earth's atmosphere that block enough sunlight based on old-time records. In addition, the author takes it for granted that during that time, a record illustrated that loud boom likelihood occurring at the same time. Hence the author draws the conclusion that cooling may caused by a volcanic eruption at that time on earth surface. This argument is vulnerable in several aspects.
  In the first place, even assuming that authentic data by old records depicted   was in fact due to when the common cooling phenomenon occurring at that time, the author may neglects the possibility that volcanic eruption was not the primary or unique reasons leading to the cooling phenomenon at previous times.  Perhaps the record said that booming flash in fact was not discovered by ancient reporter due to science technology of cause of action in this field of astronomy. Either scenario, if true, would serve to undermine the author's assertions that record no apparently flash occurring when meteorite collision began.
  In the second place, even assuming that the author's claim that the booming sound was fact due to explain the cooling phenomenon, the author must be overlooks that other possible reasons all may affect condition upon this common phenomenon in past time. Perhaps this booming sound was a primary cause due to local seismic after then spread out other regions, so most people in that time might misunderstand that the loudly booming sound was the unique contributing cause with volcanic eruption occurrence in that time.  In short, without ruling out other possible reasons for that loudly sound, the author cannot convinced me on the basis of them that cooling was actual caused by volcanic eruption.
  Finally, the author also ignores the possibility that one or more factors other than large meteorite collision were instead responsible for cooling occurrence on earth. For instance, perhaps other factors such as reaction by living activities of animal in biosphere affecting other vegetables or plant to breach, may influence the atmosphere with earth, etc. If so, this fact would seriously weaken the author's claim that meteorite collision created a large dust cloud throughout Earth's atmosphere was a primary cause to explain why surface of earth increasingly cooler over than before.
  To sum up, the conclusion lacks credibility because the evidence cited in the analysis does not lend concrete support to what the author maintains. To strengthen this argument, the author would have to provide more evidence concerning such as historic data or evidence by other region experts. To better assess this argument, I would need more information regarding previously experience such this type of condition occurring at other planet, for example, in the moon, or Jupiter, at least in Mars.