Argument47【Aero小组】第8次作业

m2zhyUID: 2440721

Scientists studying historical weather patterns have discovered that in the mid-sixth century, Earth suddenly became significantly cooler. Although few historical records survive from that time, some accounts found both in Asia and Europe mention a dimming of the sun and extremely cold temperatures. Either a huge volcanic eruption or a large meteorite colliding with Earth could have created a large dust cloud throughout Earth's atmosphere that would have been capable of blocking enough sunlight to lower global temperatures significantly. A large meteorite collision, however, would probably create a sudden bright flash of light, and no extant historical records of the time mention such a flash. Some surviving Asian historical records of the time, however, mention a loud boom that would be consistent with a volcanic eruption. Therefore, the cooling was probably caused by a volcanic eruption.


In this argument, the author recommends that the cooling of earth in the mid-sixth century was probably caused by a volcanic eruption, excluding another possible causation which could also create a dimming of the sun and cold temperatures, by the evidence that a loud boom was recorded whereas no extant records about bright flash of light. However, the recommendation is suspicious.

First，the author falsely assumes that there are only two possibilities to cause the cooling ---- volcanic eruption and meteorite colliding with Earth, while neglecting other probabilities like Earth’s climate changes by itself. It is entirely because of the climate change cycle, for the author failed to provide detail information about the degree of the cooling. If the temperature decreased only by like 10 degrees, which is extremely lower than normal to human beings, it is not surprise that the climate itself could lead to this result. Or even the fact that human beings could survive at that time might help to prove of a history of non-meteorite collision or huge volcanic eruption ---- after all, these disasters are severe enough to extinguish a species just like dinosaur extinct 65 million years ago.

Secondly, even the causation is one of what has been mentioned in the argument; it is unfair to assert the cooling was not caused by meteorite collision just because no extant historical records of the time mention a bright flash. It is entirely that the records have disappeared since too long time has gone. Or the collision happened but no body saw the flash and therefore out of the historical records, because the author does not provide information about the range and luminosity of the flash, which might be too limited to reach people’s sight, such as happened in Pacific Ocean or Atlantic. At that matter, even a meteorite collision happened, people can not realize it, let the records of it reserved alone.

Finally, the fact that some surviving Asian historical records of the time mention a loud boom lends no authority to the argument. Whether the boom is from a volcanic eruption is suspect and granting it as a volcanic only by sounds is irrational. The boom might be from a strong motion earthquake for earthquakes can also produce this kind of loud boom. Or even admitting it is volcanic eruption, we are failed to be informed whether the eruption was huge enough to create a large dust cloud throughout Earth’s atmosphere to cool the whole earth. Further, the records are just from Asian which can not indicate a similar situation in Europe. In these cases, we can hardly be persuaded by the volcanic eruption theory.  

In sum, the author failed to provide sufficient evidence to support the argument. To make the argument more credible and persuasive, the author must provide more clearer information about the boom origin and the scale of the volcanic eruption if it indeed occurred, whereas excluding all of other possibilities leading to the cooling.  

hziu2UID: 2326409

In this argument, the author recommends that the cooling of earth in the mid-sixth century was probably caused by a volcanic eruption, excluding another possible causation which could also create (be created by)a dimming of the sun and cold temperatures 去掉, by the evidence that a loud boom was recorded whereas no extant records about bright flash of light. However, the recommendation is suspicious.

First，the author falsely assumes that there are only two possibilities to cause the cooling ---- volcanic eruption and meteorite colliding with Earth, while neglecting other probabilities like Earth’s climate changes by itself. It is entirely because of the climate change cycle, for the author failed to provide detail information about the degree of the cooling. If the temperature decreased only by like 10 degrees, which is extremely lower than normal to human beings, it is not surprise that the climate itself could lead to this result. Or even the fact that human beings could survive at that time might help to prove of a history of non-meteorite collision or huge volcanic eruption ---- after all, these disasters are severe enough to extinguish a species just like dinosaur extinct 65 million years ago.

Secondly, even the causation is one of what has been mentioned in the argument; it is unfair to assert the cooling was not caused by meteorite collision just because no extant historical records of the time mention a bright flash. It is entirely that the records have disappeared since too long time has gone. Or the collision happened but no body saw the flash and therefore out of the historical records, because the author does not provide information about the range and luminosity of the flash, which might be too limited to reach people’s sight, such as happened in Pacific Ocean or Atlantic. At that matter, even a meteorite collision happened, people can not realize it, let the records of it reserved alone.

Finally, the fact that some surviving Asian historical records of the time mention a loud boom lends no authority to the argument. Whether the boom is from a volcanic eruption is suspect and granting it as a volcanic only by sounds is irrational. The boom might be from a strong motion earthquake for earthquakes can also produce this kind of loud boom. Or even admitting it is volcanic eruption, we are failed to be informed whether the eruption was huge enough to create a large dust cloud throughout Earth’s atmosphere to cool the whole earth. Further, the records are just from Asian which can not indicate a similar situation in Europe. In these cases, we can hardly be persuaded by the volcanic eruption theory.  

In sum, the author failed to provide sufficient evidence to support the argument. To make the argument more credible and persuasive, the author must provide more clearer information about the boom origin and the scale of the volcanic eruption if it indeed occurred, whereas excluding all of other possibilities leading to the cooling.  

写得很棒的说.批得很详细.关于气温下降的幅度,碰撞发出光芒的强度还有火山喷发的规模都是我没想到的.真是谢谢了.有个小建议,段首句多看看范文,不要用first,secondly等等这样太简单的开头.