Argument45 飞跃dreams第一次作业

syjsss213UID: 2415289

TOPIC: ARGUMENT45 - The following appeared as an editorial in a wildlife journal.
"Arctic deer live on islands in Canada's arctic region. They search for food by moving over ice from island to island during the course of a year. Their habitat is limited to areas warm enough to sustain the plants on which they feed, and cold enough, at least some of the year, for the ice to cover the sea separating the islands, allowing the deer to travel over it. Unfortunately, according to reports from local hunters, the deer populations are declining. Since these reports coincide with recent global warming trends that have caused the sea ice to melt, we can conclude that the decline in arctic deer populations is the result of deer being unable to follow their age-old migration patterns across the frozen sea."
WORDS: 390          TIME: 1h+


In this argument the author concludes that the decline in arctic deer population is the result of deer being unable to follow their age-old migration patterns across the frozen sea. The conclusion is based on the report from local hunters. Additionally, the arguer asserts that this report of the declining deer population coincides with recent global warming trends. However, the statement alone does not constitute a logical argument in favor of its conclusion and fails to provide compelling support making this argument sound.

To begin with, the source of the survey i.e. the local hunters is not convincing enough. It is entirely possible that herds of deer influx a remote island that hunters have no intention to chase preys after long march in frosting winter, but on the other hand supply deer adequate food. In this case, hunters' attention will be surely converted to other preys like rabbits and birds, and the report of decline of deer population resulting from the absence of hunter, not the absence of the deer will certainly be made.

Secondly, the arguer fails to establish the casual relationship between the recent global warming trend and the local acceleration of ice-melting. As we know, the global warming trend is a term in meteorology describing the increasing temperature at the average and global level. In short, it is a macroscopical phenomenon. There is insufficient evidence to strengthen the assumption that local climate goes hand in hand with the global trend.

Moreover, the author fails to take into account other relevant factors that might result in the decline in arctic deer populations. Do the genes of deer make a profound transform which retard the birth of offspring? Do the deer's enemies like wolves and foxes increase by a huge amount? Do the hunters' activities contribute to the exodus of deer? Do the food that deer feed on decrease to fantastic level? Do the industrial pollution engender the significant changes in deer's habitant?

Since the author commits the above-mentioned logical fallacy and fails to consider the whole situation comprehensively, his ideas should not be adopted. The conclusion would be strengthened if author provide statistical and inclusive evidence that involves the local climate changes, the distribution of food that deer rely on, the specifical record of the migration in a long term and the health and genetic condition of deer.


[ 本帖最后由 syjsss213 于 2008-1-27 11:38 编辑 ]

gre_killer_wuUID: 2451830

In this argument the author concludes that the decline in arctic deer population is the result of deer being unable to follow their age-old migration patterns across the frozen sea. The conclusion is based on the report from local hunters. Additionally, the arguer asserts that this report of the declining deer population coincides with recent global warming trends. However, the statement alone does not constitute a logical argument in favor of its conclusion and fails to provide compelling support making this argument sound.

To begin with, the source of the survey i.e. the local hunters is not convincing enough. It is entirely possible that herds of deer influx a remote island that hunters have no intention to chase preys after long march in frosting winter, but on the other hand supply deer adequate food. In this case, hunters' attention will be surely converted to other preys like rabbits and birds, and the report of decline of deer population resulting from the absence of hunter, not the absence of the deer will certainly be made.
（这一点批驳得比较好，猎人的报告有可能是不全面的）

Secondly, the arguer fails to establish the casual relationship between the recent global warming trend and the local acceleration of ice-melting. As we know, the global warming trend is a term in meteorology describing the increasing temperature at the average and global level. In short, it is a macroscopical phenomenon. There is insufficient evidence to strengthen the assumption that local climate goes hand in hand with the global trend.

Moreover, the author fails to take into account other relevant factors that might result in the decline in arctic deer populations. Do the genes of deer make a profound transform which retard the birth of offspring? Do the deer's enemies like wolves and foxes increase by a huge amount? Do the hunters' activities contribute to the exodus of deer? Do the food that deer feed on decrease to fantastic level? Do the industrial pollution engender the significant changes in deer's habitant?
（列举了很多可能的，合乎常理的反例，很好）

Since the author commits the above-mentioned logical fallacy and fails to consider the whole situation comprehensively, his ideas should not be adopted. The conclusion would be strengthened if author provide statistical and inclusive evidence that involves the local climate changes, the distribution of food that deer rely on, the specifical record of the migration in a long term and the health and genetic condition of deer.
（单独来看，你找的每一个错误都比较准确，但如果能让用一条线把各个段落连结起来在逻辑上形成一个次序，文章在整体上会显得更严密）