Argument45 [飞跃dreams小组]第一次作业 by Marvelous_cz

Marvelous_czUID: 2451875

45.The following appeared as an editorial in a wildlife journal.

"Arctic deer live on islands in Canada's arctic region. They search for food by moving over ice from island to island during the course of a year. Their habitat is limited to areas warm enough to sustain the plants on which they feed, and cold enough, at least some of the year, for the ice
to cover the sea separating the islands, allowing the deer to travel over it. Unfortunately, according to reports from local hunters, the deer populations are declining. Since these reports coincide with recent global warming trends that have caused the sea ice to melt, we can conclude that
the decline in arctic deer populations is the result of deer being unable to follow their age-old migration patterns across the frozen sea."

北极鹿生活在加拿大极地区域的岛屿上。它们全年都通过冰块在岛屿间移动来寻找食物。它们的栖居地局限在那些温暖得足以维持它们所需的植物生长，并且在一年的至少某些时候冷到足以让岛屿间的海面结冰以使它们能够在岛屿间旅行的地方。然而，根据当地猎人的报告，鹿的数量正在下降。由于这一报告正好与最近导致海洋冰面融化的全球变暖趋势同时发生，我们可以得出结论：北极鹿数量的下降是它们无法按它们原有的迁移习惯穿越结冰海面的结果。

字数：404   时间：不限时  

In this argument, the arguer concludes that deer being unable to follow their age-old migration patterns across the frozen sea had much to do with the decline of the deer populations. To make the conclusion the arguer states the reports from local hunters. Also, the arguer points out that the global warming trends led to the decline of deer populations. However, the argument is undermined by some problems.

Firstly, the argument treats a lack of proof that the warming trend has led to the deer being unable to follow their age-old migration patterns. Maybe the deer being still can migrate as before, although the ice is changed to thin but still enough to sustain the weight of the deers. In that situation, the arctic deer would migrate as their ancestor and would not be influenced by warming trend.   

Secondly, the correlation between warming trend and the decline of deer being does not necessarily lead to causal relationship. Without the evidence to proof the point, it is entirely possible that the decline of deer being is resulted from factors which have no correlation with warming trend. Perhaps the population of natural enemy of arcitc deer being has increased; they may hunt the deer for their food. Also perhaps there is a contagious disease in the deer being, which cause the deer being massive dead. I can not accept the arguer’s conclusion until he or she consider these and other reasons and eliminate them.

Thirdly, there are also some other problems. The report from the local hunter may be not precise. They may not find the deer being in some areas which the arctic deer migrate across before but has not to go through now. And the arguer does not proof that the deer being unable to migrate will lead to them died or decline. Without ruling out these and other possible reasons and problems, the conclusion is totally dubious.

Overall, the conclusion, that the causal relationship between the decline in arctic deer populations and deer being unable to follow their age-old migration patterns across the frozen sea, is unpersuasive. More evidences are needed to reinforce the argument: warming trend would influence the migration of deer being; warming trend would cause the decline in arctic deer populations; deer population would be decline since they can not migrate anymore. It would be necessary for the arguer to proof them before we could better evaluate the conclusion.

[ 本帖最后由 Marvelous_cz 于 2008-1-28 00:26 编辑 ]

wxtxxmUID: 2339833

In this argument, the arguer concludes that deer being unable to follow their age-old migration patterns across the frozen sea had much to do with the decline of the deer populations. To make the conclusion the arguer states the reports from local hunters. Also, the arguer points out that the global warming trends led to the decline of deer populations. However, the argument is undermined by some problems.

Firstly, the argument treats a lack of proof that the warming trend has led to the deer being unable to follow their age-old migration patterns. Maybe the deer being still can migrate as before, although the ice is changed to thin but still enough to sustain the weight of the deers.此处论证很好！ In that situation, the arctic deer would migrate as their ancestor and would not be influenced by warming trend.   


Secondly, the correlation between warming trend and the decline of deer being does not necessarily lead to causal relationship. Without the evidence to proof the point, it is entirely possible that the decline of deer being is resulted from factors which have no correlation with warming trend. Perhaps the population of natural enemy of arcitc deer being has increased; they may hunt the deer for their food. Also perhaps there is a contagious disease in the deer being, which cause the deer being massive dead.此处论证很好！I can not accept the arguer’s conclusion until he or she consider these and other reasons and eliminate them.
指出全球变暖和北极鹿数量下降无关，批驳这处错误时，把原文“由于这一报告正好与最近导致海洋冰面融化的全球变暖趋势同时发生”，由于发生时间上的同时性而认为两事物有关，这是很明显的一处错误，如果把这个方面重点指出是不是更具说服力？
Thirdly, there are also some other problems. The report from the local hunter may be not precise.They may not find the deer being in some areas which the arctic deer migrate across before but has not to go through now. And the arguer does not proof that the deer being unable to migrate will lead to them died or decline.个人认为此处的论证不是那么充分 Without ruling out these and other possible reasons and problems, the conclusion is totally dubious.

Overall, the conclusion, that the causal relationship between the decline in arctic deer populations and deer being unable to follow their age-old migration patterns across the frozen sea, is unpersuasive. More evidences are needed to reinforce the argument: warming trend would influence the migration of deer being; warming trend would cause the decline in arctic deer populations; deer population would be decline since they can not migrate anymore. It would be necessary for the arguer to proof them before we could better evaluate the conclusion.首尾呼应，很好！
总评：我觉得这篇文章的逻辑层次不是很好，你的层次是这样的：全球变暖不一定导致北极鹿无法迁徙→全球变暖不一定与北极鹿数量下降有关→猎人的报告不一定可信。如果把这三个层次倒过来，是不是更好？
PS：LZ的语言很棒！

Marvelous_czUID: 2451875

字数: 452

In this argument, the arguer concludes that deer being unable to follow their age-old migration patterns across the frozen sea had much to do with the decline of the deer populations. To make the conclusion the arguer states the reports from local hunters. Also, the arguer points out that the global warming trends led to the decline of deer populations. However, the argument is undermined by some problems.

Firstly, the argument treats a lack of proof that the warming trend has led to the deer being unable to follow their age-old migration patterns. Maybe the deer being still can migrate as before, although the ice is changed to thin but still enough to sustain the weight of the deer. In that situation, the arctic deer would migrate as their ancestor and would not be influenced by warming trend.   

Secondly, the correlation between warming trend and the decline of deer being does not necessarily lead to causal relationship. The tow tings just happen at the same time, but it does not indicate that they have some necessity relationships. Without the evidence to proof the point, it is entirely possible that the decline of deer being is resulted from factors which have no correlation with warming trend. Perhaps the population of natural enemy of arctic deer being has increased; they may hunt the deer for their food. Also perhaps there is a contagious disease in the deer being, which cause the deer being massive dead.I can not accept the arguer’s conclusion until he or she consider these and other reasons and eliminate them.

Thirdly, there are also some other problems. The report from the local hunter may be not precise. They may just survey some hunters in a limited area where the deer population is decreasing, but the deer is propagating and increasing in other areas. And the arguer does not proof that the deer being unable to migrate will lead to them died or decline. Maybe the warming trend lead to the plants more luxuriance, and they become enough food for the deer so that the deer would not migrate for foods. Without ruling out these and other possible reasons and problems, the conclusion is totally dubious.

Overall, the conclusion that the causal relationship between the decline in arctic deer populations and deer being unable to follow their age-old migration patterns across the frozen sea is unpersuasive. More evidences are needed to reinforce the argument: warming trend would influence the migration of deer being; warming trend would cause the decline in arctic deer populations; deer population would be decline since they can not migrate anymore. It would be necessary for the arguer to proof them before we could better evaluate the conclusion.

[ 本帖最后由 Marvelous_cz 于 2008-1-28 21:50 编辑 ]