Argument97 飞越dreams小组第3次作业

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TOPIC: ARGUMENT97 - The following appeared in a memo from the manager of television station KICK.
"A nationwide survey reveals that a sizeable majority of men would like to see additional sports programs on television. After television station WACK increased its sports broadcasts, its share of the television audience in its viewing area almost doubled. To gain a larger audience share in our area, and thus increase company profits, KICK should also revise its broadcast schedule to include more sports coverage."
WORDS: 367          TIME: 55min

The manager concludes that including more sports coverage in the station's broadcast will lead to the increase in audience's number. At first glance, this conclusion seems somewhat convincing, but further evaluation tells me that this measure will be ineffective and even misleading.

To begin with, the manager commits a fallacy of false analogy that overlooks the differences between two stations. The fact that share of television audience in station WACK's viewing area doubled after the increase in sport broadcasts does not lend strong support to the proposal to adjust KICK's policy. Since the audience's preference in the two areas may distinguish significantly, the hasty conclusion that audience in KICK's viewing area also have tendency to watch sports programs is unwarranted to some certain degrees.  Moreover, audience's fondness in certain program acts as only one factor among large quantity of elements determining the proportion of audience that stations attract. People may put more emphasis on programs' quality, commercials' number, faculty's work and expenditure on connection facilities when choosing stations, and distinction in these aspects between the two stations should be greatly attached importance on. Without further evidence, managers' analogical suggestion seems unpersuasive and problematic.

Additionally, the manager makes citation from a nationwide survey revealing that a sizeable majority of men prefer additional sports programs on television, and intends to strengthen his conclusion. With careful scrutiny, however, we may pick out other logical fallacy in his reasoning. Firstly, how about the percentage of women preferring sports programs? It is entirely possible that majority of women in this nation have little intention to watch sports which are competitive and violent as some may regard. And in such cases, the survey's lack of representiveness may result in far-reaching fallacy after taking measures above. Secondly, since this survey selects individuals all around the country, it tells little about situation in the local areas that KICK covers. Finally, fondness in additional sports programs does not necessarily follow that men like these programs in common time.

In conclusion, the suggestion to increase sports programs is quite questionable. To make it logically acceptable, the manager would have to show the statistical evidence that reflects precise proportion of people preferring sports program in KICK's viewing areas.

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The manager concludes that including more sports coverage in the station's broadcast will lead to the increase in audience's number. At first glance, this conclusion seems somewhat convincing, but further evaluation tells me that this measure will be ineffective and even misleading.

To begin with, the manager commits a fallacy of false analogy that overlooks the differences between two stations. The fact that share of television audience in station WACK's viewing area doubled after the increase in sport broadcasts does not lend strong support to the proposal to adjust KICK's policy. Since the audience's preference in the two areas may distinguish significantly, the hasty conclusion that audience in KICK's viewing area also have tendency to watch sports programs is unwarranted to some certain degrees.  Moreover, audience's fondness in certain program acts as only one factor among large quantity of elements determining the proportion of audience that stations attract. People may put more emphasis on programs' quality, commercials' number, faculty's work and expenditure on connection facilities when choosing stations, and distinction in these aspects between the two stations should be greatly attached importance on. Without further evidence, managers' analogical suggestion seems unpersuasive and problematic.

Additionally, the manager makes citation from a nationwide survey revealing that a sizeable majority of men prefer additional sports programs on television, and intends to strengthen his conclusion. With careful scrutiny, however, we may pick out other logical fallacy in his reasoning. Firstly, how about the percentage of women preferring sports programs? It is entirely possible that majority of women in this nation have little intention to watch sports which are competitive and violent as some may regard. And in such cases, the survey's lack of representiveness may result in far-reaching fallacy after taking measures above. Secondly, since this survey selects individuals all around the country, it tells little about situation in the local areas that KICK covers. Finally, fondness in additional sports programs does not necessarily follow that men like these programs in common time.

In conclusion, the suggestion to increase sports programs is quite questionable. To make it logically acceptable, the manager would have to show the statistical evidence that reflects precise proportion of people preferring sports program in KICK's viewing areas.

单独来看，每一个段落都很好，但从整体来看，组织的方式却不太理想。先质疑全国性的调查结果在KICK地区的代表性，再指出即便具有代表性，也只是众多决定因素中的一个，这样的思路可能会比较有条理一些。