argument235 [spring小组 第十三次作业]

luckimonkeyUID: 2408088

Words: 608 Time: 45 minutes Date: 2008-2-2
     In the memorandum, the general manager of KNOW (K) radio station recommends to replace the original programs of rock-and-roll music with a continuous news format. In order to substantiate the recommendation, the general manager lists a myriad of facts. At first glance, the recommendation seems to be reasonable and even necessary, however, if examining carefully, I find this memorandum is unpersuasive for its logical fallacies and arbitrary assumptions.
    First, the general manager mistakes the increase of the number of old people as the cause of the decreasing K radio’s listeners. The logic behind the manager’s memo is that the older people disfavor the rock-and-roll music program, and since their number has dramatically increased, consequently K radio loses lots of listeners for its rock-and-roll programming. However, no specific investigation is provided to show the older people’s favor of radio program to connect the drains of listeners of K radio with the increasing number of older people as a result-and-cause relation. Besides, many factors lead to the decreased number of listeners like a unsatisfied quality of programs. If that is true, what the K radio should do is to spend efforts in improving the quality of music program rather than replacing it with continuous news program.
    Second, the fact that music stores in the K radio station’s area report decreased sales of recorded music lend little support to the manager’s hidden assumption that music program is no longer popular. Stemming from different natural characteristics, music stores and music radio station have different market. Lots of factors contribute to the decreased sales of music stores, such as the types of record they sell, and competition of internet from which people can download music for free. Therefore, the decreased sales of music stores can not prove anything.
    Third, the success of the continuous radio station in neighboring cities can not guarantee that the K radio station will succeed as long as it shift its programming from rock-and-roll music to a continuous news format. Different locations of the radio stations bring about different situation of market. Perhaps there are too many radio station broadcasting music programs and few broadcasting continuous news, which lead to less number of competitors for continuous news radio stations. In order to persuade the K radio station to follow the success of continuous news radio station in neighboring cites, more information including the different market situation should be provided.
    Finally, the survey which the manager cites as an evidence to show that local people prefer continuous news program rather than music program is open to question. In the first place, as mentioned in the memo, the survey is taken right before the election. Common sense tell us that most people would show more or less concerns with politics during the election, for they have to vote for the most qualified leader and the result of election may have great influence on their well-being. So, local citizens’ interest of becoming better informed about politics is a temporary interest instead of a long lasting one. In that condition, to replace the rock-and-roll music program with continuous news program may achieve short-term success but to fail in a long term. In the second place, no information is given about the procedures of the survey or the number of the subjects. Therefore, the result of the survey that people’s greater interest becoming better informed about politics is dubious.
    To sum up, the recommendation in the memo is one based on many logical fallacies. To better support it, the manager should provide powerful and direct evidence to show that local people did have greater interest in continuous news program rather than rock-and-roll music programs.