argument45：[jet 小组] 第三次作业

月亮熬的汤UID: 2382325

Argument 45:The following appeared as an editorial in a wildlife journal.
"Arctic deer live on islands in Canada's arctic region. They search for food by moving over ice from island to island during the course of a year. Their habitats is limited to areas warm enough to sustain the plants on which they feed, and cold enough, at least some of the year, for the ice to cover the sea separating the islands, allowing the deer to travel over it. Unfortunately, according to reports from local hunters, the deer populations are declining. Since these reports coincide with recent global warming trends that have caused the sea ice to melt, we can conclude that the decline in arctic deer populations is the result of deer being unable to follow their age-old migration patterns across the frozen sea."
WORDS: 429       TIME:          DATE: 2008-2-4

It is claimed by the author that the decline of the deer population is a result of the recent global warming trends which stop the deer from their age-old migration patterns across the frozen sea. This argument seems to be a substantiated assertion at the first glance, but a careful meditation would reveal how groundless it is.

To begin with, the validity of the reports mentioned in the argument is highly suspicious. The author fails to provide further information about how many locals hunters are studied, if there are two hundred hunters in that region but only two were studied, the report is simply insufficient to draw such a conclusion that the deer population are declining. Even if enough amount of hunters are studied in the report, the author should inform us on what basis did them draw such a conclusion. Did they see less arctic deer or did they simply hear it from others and did not verify it. It is highly possible that the hunters can not provide any evidence to support their conclusion for the reason that it is just their deduction.

Even if the report is truly valid and the hunters can very well prove their claims, the author still needs more information to support his claim that the temperature there are climbing. It is no denying that the world average temperature is increasing, but it does not mean that the temperature everywhere is increasing too. Very possibly, the temperature in Canada's arctic region is in fact declining, which means that the basis on which this whole argument built is not valid at all.

Even if the region concerned is really affected the recent global warming trends, the author also commits the fallacy of "after this, therefore, because of this" which associates the decline of deer population with recent global warming trends because of mere proximity of time. The conclusion that global warming trends result in the reduction of deer population can not be drawn until further discussion is provided about their relationships. There are all kinds of possibilities that can give rise to the reduction of deer population, like the serious worldwide problem of pollution, which contaminates the deer's habitats. And maybe over-hunting by the local hunters also leads to it.

In conclusion, the author, without justification, commits several crucial logical flaws. In order to make this argument more convincing, the author should provide more information to show that the reports are warranted, the temperature there is really increasing and there is a strong relationship between global warming and the reduction of deer population.

abzeroUID: 2308499

Argument 45:The following appeared as an editorial in a wildlife journal.
"Arctic deer live on islands in Canada's arctic region. They search for food by moving over ice from island to island during the course of a year. Their habitats is limited to areas warm enough to sustain the plants on which they feed, and cold enough, at least some of the year, for the ice to cover the sea separating the islands, allowing the deer to travel over it. Unfortunately, according to reports from local hunters, the deer populations are declining. Since these reports coincide with recent global warming trends that have caused the sea ice to melt, we can conclude that the decline in arctic deer populations is the result of deer being unable to follow their age-old migration patterns across the frozen sea."
WORDS: 429       TIME:          DATE: 2008-2-4

It is claimed by the author that the decline of the deer population is a result of the recent global warming trends which stop the deer from their age-old migration patterns across the frozen sea. This argument seems to be a substantiated assertion at the first glance, but a careful meditation would reveal how groundless it is.

To begin with, the validity of the reports mentioned in the argument is highly suspicious. The author fails to provide further information about how many locals hunters are studied, if there are two hundred hunters in that region but only two were studied, the report is simply insufficient to draw such a conclusion that the deer population are declining. Even if enough amount of hunters are studied in the report, the author should inform us on what basis did them draw such a conclusion. Did they see less arctic deer or did(删去) they simply hear it from others and did not verify it. It is highly possible that the hunters can not provide any evidence to support their conclusion for the reason that it is just their deduction.

Even if the report is truly valid and the hunters can very well prove their claims, the author still needs more information to support his claim that the temperature there are climbing. It is no denying that the world average temperature is increasing, but it does not mean that the temperature everywhere is increasing too. Very possibly, the temperature in Canada's arctic region is in fact declining, which means that the basis on which this whole argument built is not valid at all.

Even if the region concerned is really affected the recent global warming trends, the author also commits the fallacy of "after this, therefore, because of this" which associates the decline of deer population with recent global warming trends because of mere proximity of time. The conclusion that global warming trends result in the reduction of deer population can not be drawn until further discussion is provided about their relationships. There are all kinds of possibilities that can give rise to the reduction of deer population, like the serious worldwide problem of pollution, which contaminates the deer's habitats. And maybe over-hunting by the local hunters also leads to it.

In conclusion, the author, without justification, commits several crucial logical flaws. In order to make this argument more convincing, the author should provide more information to show that the reports are warranted, the temperature there is really increasing and there is a strong relationship between global warming and the reduction of deer population.

对 Flaws 的攻击很有循序，值得我学习

ilabcUID: 2298724

从每段开头看出，lz花了心思排了fallacy的顺序。值得学习。

the fallacy of "after this, therefore, because of this" 个人感觉不好，就说have no causal relationship