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发表于 2008-2-12 17:59:06
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147.The following appeared in an editorial in a business magazine.
"Although the sales of Whirlwind video games have declined over the past two years, a recent survey of video-game players suggests that this sales trend is about to be reversed. The survey asked video-game players what features they thought were most important in a video game. According to the survey, players prefer games that provide lifelike graphics, which require the most up-to-date computers. Whirlwind has just introduced several such games with an extensive advertising campaign directed at people 10 to 25 years old, the age-group most likely to play video games. It follows, then, that the sales of Whirlwind video games are likely to increase dramatically in the next few months."
My Answer:
The editorial concludes that the sales of Whirlwind video games will increase in next few month after a nearly two-year decline in the sales. In order to testify this conclusion the editorial’s author cite a survey in which game players indicated a preference for games providing lifelike graphics. Then the author point out that Whirlwind just introduced several such games, aiming at people 10-25years old—the group most likely to play video games. This argument may seems reasonable at first glance, but I find many aspects specious.
First, the argument depend on the survey, but many aspects of the survey is unclear. How many respondents are involved in the survey? Can these respondents be the representatives of the whole videogame players? If the number of the respondents are too low, and the age-range of the respondents can not represent the overall videogame players, the survey can not be a substantial evidence to support the author’s conclusion. To make this survey more reliable, more details need to be mentioned.
Secondly, even the survey is reliable, and the players care most about the graphic quality, but it still can not testify the assumption that customers will buy Whirlwind’s lifelike videogame. It can’t deny that the players may also care about other features of the game, such as the entertainment quality, the price of the game, the styles and content of the game. Whirlwind’s products may have deficiencies on these features. Another point I would mention is that people’s preference to lifelike games doesn’t mean people’s willing to buy lifelike games. As such games require the most up-to-date computers, which many people may lack, it will be the barrier to the sale of such product.
Finally, the conclusion , that the sales of Whirlwind game are likely to increase dramatically in the next few months , rely on an illogical reasoning. Even all evidence mentioned are real, there is still no direct causal relationship between the statement and the conclusion. Maybe before two years ago, video-game players have been preferring lifelike graphics, and Whirlwind have been presenting such kind of products, and Whirlwind games’ characters have been widely known by the its extensive advertising campaign, but all these have never worked effectively to arise Whirlwind’s sale. If Whirlwind really want to reverse its trend, it should first know its Achilles’ heel, which never be noted in the editorial. Maybe the styles of the Whirlwind game can’t attract players’ heart, and so on. Unless it could notice its weak-points and improve them, it can get real reversion on the market. |
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