ARGUMENT45 THREIVE小组第五次作业 猛拍啊

linkccUID: 2413074

题目：ARGUMENT45 - The following appeared as an editorial in a wildlife journal.

"Arctic deer live on islands in Canada's arctic region. They search for food by moving over ice from island to island during the course of a year. Their habitat is limited to areas warm enough to sustain the plants on which they feed, and cold enough, at least some of the year, for the ice to cover the sea separating the islands, allowing the deer to travel over it. Unfortunately, according to reports from local hunters, the deer populations are declining. Since these reports coincide with recent global warming trends that have caused the sea ice to melt, we can conclude that the decline in arctic deer populations is the result of deer being unable to follow their age-old migration patterns across the frozen sea."
字数：499      

In this editorial the author claims that the decline in arctic deer population is the result of deer unable to follow traditional patterns to across the frozen sea. To substantiate this claim, the author cited reports from local hunters to explain the decline of deer populations. And the author also points out that the recent global warming trends have caused the sea ice to melt. After a close scrutiny, however, I n several respects, there is little credible evidence to support the argument.

First of all, the threshold problem with the argument is that the author fails to offer convincing evidence that the hunter's reports are statistically reliable. There is no information about the number, the territory of deer, and the time when they saw these deer. Perhaps declining deer population was only a deduction of local hunters which is cannot represent the over all decline in these areas. Without providing sufficient information and statistics about the deer population, only predicted on the report of local hunters, the author cannot expect us to take seriously that the deer populations are declining.

Second, the author concludes that the global warming trends caused the sea ice to melt. The author provides no evidence that the global warming trend is equal to the local warming trends. It is true that the global warning trend occurs on other places, while the place of arctic area still has a same weather condition. Perhaps, there is an enormous difference between the weather of arctic areas and the weather of global areas. Lacking sufficient evidences and information that global warming trend also represent the local areas, the author cannot draw a conclusion that the weather condition of local arctic areas causes the sea ice to melt as the global warming trends does.

Finally, even assuming the local warming trend caused the sea ice to melt, the author cannot argues that the decline of deer populations is attributed to recent  warming trend. As far as the author said, the decline of deer populations only coincide with recent warming trend, it is impossible for us to find enough evidence to warming trend caused the decline of deer population. It is high possible that many poachers hunting deer causes the decline of deer population. Or perhaps the deterioration of environment is responsible for that deer can not find available food to eat and appropriate room to stay. Without in details analyzing these and other such factors, the author cannot establish a "cause-and-effect" relationship upon which the author's assumption depends.

In sum the author has not convinced me that the decline in arctic of deer populations is the result of deer being unable to follow their age-old migration patterns. To better evaluate this argument, I would need more information and statistics that the report of local hunter is reliable. Furthermore, the author also need provide evidences that the world trends warming will occur in the local arctic areas; and rule out other abovementioned possibilities that will undermine the author's claim.

westwindyiUID: 2453478

题目：ARGUMENT45 - The following appeared as an editorial in a wildlife journal.
个人意见：这篇argument不错了吧，只需要在第一、二个观点之间加上连接词以突出逻辑关系就更好了。
"Arctic deer live on islands in Canada's arctic region. They search for food by moving over ice from island to island during the course of a year. Their habitat is limited to areas warm enough to sustain the plants on which they feed, and cold enough, at least some of the year, for the ice to cover the sea separating the islands, allowing the deer to travel over it. Unfortunately, according to reports from local hunters, the deer populations are declining. Since these reports coincide with recent global warming trends that have caused the sea ice to melt, we can conclude that the decline in arctic deer populations is the result of deer being unable to follow their age-old migration patterns across the frozen sea."
字数：499      

In this editorial the author claims that the decline in arctic deer population is the result of deer unable to follow traditional patterns to across the frozen sea. To substantiate this claim, the author cited reports from local hunters to explain the decline of deer populations. And the author also points out that the recent global warming trends have caused the sea ice to melt. After a close scrutiny, however, I n several respects, there is little credible evidence to support the argument（开头不错啊）.

First of all, the threshold problem with the argument is that the author fails to offer convincing evidence that the hunter's reports are statistically reliable. There is no information about the number, the territory of deer, and the time when they saw these deer. Perhaps declining deer population was only a deduction of local hunters which is cannot represent the over all decline in these areas. Without providing sufficient information and statistics about the deer population, only predicted on the report of local hunters, the author cannot expect us to take seriously that the deer populations are declining.

Second, the author concludes that the global warming trends caused the sea ice to melt. The author provides no evidence that the global warming trend is equal to the local warming trends. It is true that the global warning trend occurs on other places, while the place of arctic area still has a same weather condition. Perhaps, there is an enormous difference between the weather of arctic areas and the weather of global areas（这一句放到前一句前面更合适一点）. Lacking sufficient evidences and information that global warming trend also represent the local areas, the author cannot draw a conclusion that the weather condition of local arctic areas causes the sea ice to melt as the global warming trends does.

Finally, even assuming the local warming trend caused the sea ice to melt, the author cannot argues that the decline of deer populations is attributed to recent  warming trend. As far as the author said, the decline of deer populations only coincide with recent warming trend, it is impossible for us to find enough evidence to warming trend caused the decline of deer population. It is high（highly） possible that many poachers hunting deer causes the decline of deer population. Or perhaps the deterioration of environment is responsible for that deer can not find available food to eat and appropriate room to stay. Without in details analyzing these and other such factors, the author cannot establish a "cause-and-effect" relationship upon which the author's assumption depends.

In sum the author has not convinced me that the decline in arctic of deer populations is the result of deer being unable to follow their age-old migration patterns. To better evaluate this argument, I would need more information and statistics that the report of local hunter is reliable. Furthermore, the author also need provide evidences that the world trends warming will occur in the local arctic areas; and rule out other abovementioned possibilities that will undermine the author's claim.

无声的热情UID: 2744946

模板占到大头，问题都找到了，但论述还是略显乏力