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TOPIC: ARGUMENT25 - The following appeared in a memo from the mayor of the town of Hopewell.
"Two years ago, the town of Ocean View built a new municipal golf course and resort hotel. During the past two years, tourism in Ocean View has increased, new businesses have opened there, and Ocean View's tax revenues have risen by 30 percent. The best way to improve Hopewell's economy, and generate additional tax revenues, is to build a golf course and resort hotel similar to those in Ocean View."
WORDS: 494 TIME: 00:30:00 DATE: 2008-2-16 15:46:10
In the argument, the arguer comes to a conclusion that the best way to improve Hopewell's economy is the build a golf course and resort like that in Ocean View by citing the prospect of O there two years. However, the argument is unconvincing, as the arguer does not recognize the real cause of the prospect of O, and unfairly regard the background condition between the two areas are the same.
To begin with, the arguer unfairly assumes that the prospect during the past two years in O is owing to the new-built golf course and resort hotel. However, he does not rule out other possible alternatives that may contribute to the same result. Perhaps the improving environment appeal more visitors in O, not because of the golf course and resort hotel. New businesses have opened also because the general economic environment in O improved, thereby appearing more investors. Tax revenues may growing coincident with other factors, such as inflation in O, or many other revenue in O-in forms of incomes of industry or agriculture. Thus, without considering these factors which may also lead to the prospect of O, hardly can the arguer convince me.
In addition, even if the prospect in O is due to the golf course and resort hotel, the arguer fails to see the different between O and H. They may exist geologically and physically disparity. Perhaps O possess more flat place which is apt to used to be golf course, while H is of more mountain. Or perhaps H is previously an industry city which is not likely to become a place for visiting because the poor air condition. Even if the golf course and resort hotel are built, barely will people visit there. Thus, the author cannot draw his conclusion only without any comparison with the two cities.
Finally, even if H can obtain the same effect from the same incentive, it may not the best way for improving the economy in H. In fact, many other measures can be used to improve the economic condition. For example, providing some privileges for those investors will appear more money instill in H. Or perhaps building some distinctive high-tech factory which will not easily replaced by others to ensure long-standing competent. Moreover, whether the measure adopted two years ago is effective is open to doubt. Things may different now considering the rapid development of the society. Perhaps it is a fashion two years ago to go to play golf and courses and resort. However, people tend to do some other exercise, such as climbing, camping and so forth. Hardly can the author predict the future prospect of the golf course and resort hotel, let alone the effect it exerted.
In conclusion, the argument is not compelling due to some flaws in logic. To make it more persuasive, the arguer should provide more information concerning the prospect of O in order to confirm that it is the result of the golf course and resort hotel.
[ 本帖最后由 钢琴宝宝 于 2008-2-16 21:17 编辑 ] |
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